This week’s defeat of a government-backed constitutional referendum in Venezuela was a huge blow for Hugo Chavez. Since taking power in 1999, the Venezuelan president has historically received broad support for his domestic agenda and he has won several overwhelming electoral mandates. Interestingly, though, his loss raises the possibility that Venezuelans are becoming increasingly skeptical of their populist president. The blatant attempt to establish himself as president-for-life has raised concerns amongst traditional supporters of Chavez, and the opposition appears to have capitalized on their unease.

For the first time, the opposition has “tasted victory.” Anti-Chavez voters came out in droves, while many Chavez supporters either stayed at home or voted against the referendum. The student movement appears to have been particularly active, having played a major role in anti-government demonstrations. Meanwhile, there are clear signs of top-level division. Two state governors, a number of legislators, and, most prominently, former defence minister General Raúl Isaías Baduel came out against the referendum.

This may be an indication of the beginning of the end for Venezuela’s president. As The Economist notes,

Defeat means he is unable to stand again, legally, for the presidency. His aura of invincibility is forever damaged, and the battle for the succession seems bound to begin soon. Survival strategies no longer necessarily involve unquestioning loyalty to the “comandante”. Fractures may begin to appear in important institutions like the supreme court and parliament. The fight back is just beginning.