Will Huckabee And Obama Shake Up Presidential Race In Iowa?
Are we now poised to see in Iowa a classic example of how all of the political prognostication, all of the smug, all-knowing comments of The Elite Talking Heads on television shows and the self-assured comments of blogs (including this one) will be shown to be….”inoperative”…and be hurriedly shoved under the rug as NEW all-knowing and self-assured comments come out?
One thing is for sure: the polls in Iowa are not reflecting a lot of the early scenarios about what was “going to happen” in Democratic and Republican Presidential races that increasingly seem more wide open than even a month ago.
For instance, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is pulling ahead in Iowa, according to a new poll:
Huckabee wins the support of 29 percent of Iowans who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican Party’s caucuses on Jan. 3. That’s a gain of 17 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll was taken in early October, when Huckabee trailed both Romney and Fred Thompson.
Other poll findings indicate that the former Arkansas governor is making the most of a low-budget campaign by tapping into the support of Iowa’s social conservatives.
Romney, who has invested more time and money campaigning in the state than any other GOP candidate, remains in the thick of the Iowa race with the backing of 24 percent of likely caucusgoers. But that’s a drop of 5 points since October for the former Massachusetts governor.
Mike Huckabee has leaped ahead of Republican presidential rival Mitt Romney in Iowa, seizing first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus participants.
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s numbers aren’t terrific but then he hasn’t been campaigning in the state.
The point is: Huckabee is on the ASCENT — yet another one of these occasional candidates who come “out of nowhere” — not from fat-cat-rich campaign staffs, approving pieces from top columnists or from slick media operations feeding friendly reporters. He’s catching on because people like him, the more they see him. And now the word is out in the news media: Huckabee is “riding the bounce.”
So how is this met? With SPIN of course. Just read Robert Novak:
Strategists for Mitt Romney’s Republican presidential campaign were actually pleased that fast-rising Mike Huckabee moved ahead of Romney in the Rasmussen poll in Iowa, eliminating surprise if Huckabee finishes first there in the Jan. 3 caucuses.
A Huckabee victory in Iowa would kill Romney’s plans to win the first two 2008 tests in Iowa and New Hampshire, followed by sweeping the board in all other primary states. Instead, the contest for the nomination could extend through the Feb. 5 primaries, with Rudy Giuliani given a chance in the high-population state primaries that day.
(YES, Romney was truly pleased — as pleased as we are in our condo unit to have discovered an infestation of termites…)
And in the Democratic race?
New York Senator Hillary Clinton got booed in Iowa. But although that is now being touted by some of her critics as proof that she is in trouble, the event is more indicative of how some partisans of both parties increasingly will NOT tolerate a deviation from their own purist ideological agendas. Being booed at a campaign appearance does not a loser make.
The POLLS are what Ms. Clinton should be concerned about:
Barack Obama has pulled ahead in the race for Iowa’s Democratic presidential caucuses, while the party’s national frontrunner Hillary Clinton has slipped to second in the leadoff nominating state, according to The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll.
NOT good news for Hillary & Co.
Despite the movement, the race for 2008′s opening nominating contest remains very competitive about a month before the Jan. 3 caucuses, just over half of likely caucus goers who favor a candidate saying they could change their minds.
Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register’s poll as the choice of 28 percent of likely caucus goers, up from 22 percent in October. Clinton, a New York senator, was the preferred candidate of 25 percent, down from 29 percent in the previous poll.
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who led in the Register’s May poll, held steady with 23 percent, in third place, but part of the three-way battle.
The lead change appears after weeks of increasing criticism of Clinton by Obama and Edwards about her position on U.S. policy toward Iran and questions of her candor.
Meanwhile, Clinton has recently begun accusing Obama of inexperience and criticizing his proposal to expand health insurance coverage.
The poll shows what has continued to be a wide gap between the top three candidates and the remainder of the field. The telephone survey of 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Nov. 25 to 28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Iowa City Democrat Katharyn Browne said she abandoned her support for Clinton in the past month and now supports Obama in light of the Iran issue.
So this may be the time when The Smug Talking Heads on TV might want to hide the old videos and instruct producers not use clips of them as boilerplate recaps of what was previously said, columnists might pretend they never called the perceived front-runners the front-runners, and bloggers might want to speed up writing posts so old ones are buried deep in the bowels of their website archives.
What seems clear is that some GOPers aren’t happy with the big brand names so they’re looking for a brand new product — and Huckabee is getting serious consideration.
And it’s clear that Clinton must move beyond the issue of “inexperience” — it has seldom worked in politics (if it did, then Richard Nixon would have elected President in 1960) — and turn her focus more and more to hard-hitting policy specifics and criticism of the Republicans, rather than just trying to beat back Obama’s advance and drive up his negatives.
The old conventional wisdom? Never mind!
And after the vote? Will this STILL be the new conventional wisdom?
Really, no one knows.
But Clinton and Romney (despite what Novak says) can’t be smiling huge smiles today.
10 Responses to “Will Huckabee And Obama Shake Up Presidential Race In Iowa?”
The Iowa caucuses are so idiosyncratic that if any conclusions about the the larger race are drawn from them the real victors are the press commentators.
Huckabee faces a New Hampshire primary, too, and New Hampshire Republicans haven’t traditionally cozied up to southern social conservatives. IMO the most likely outcome of an Iowa victory for Huckabee is to might a Giuliani nomination that much more likely.
On the Democratic side an Obama loss would push the possibility of his nomination even farther out of reach than it is now. An Obama win would do nothing to deter or even slow Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
that should be “render a Giuliani nomination” rather than “might a Giuliani nomination”.
Anyone interested in a funny (but it really happened) column about what Huckabee is really like face-to-face should try:
http://goupstate.us/index.php/lanefiller/2007/11/02/title_14
[...] Clark Will Huckabee And Obama Shake Up Presidential Race In Iowa? » This Summary is from an article posted at The Moderate Voice » Domestic and international news [...]
So idiosyncratic that the Iowa voters proved the “elite pundits” wrong on Dean in
[...] Clark Will Huckabee And Obama Shake Up Presidential Race In Iowa? » This Summary is from an article posted at The Moderate Voice » Domestic and international news [...]
As far as Huckabee pulling ahead in Iowa: it doesn’t surprise me. Romney and Rudy both have issues…, Thompson had the spotlight for a while and failed, and Huckabee did well in last week’s debate. McCain- I think a lot of people are still undecided about him but once everyone has gone down the list of candidates (I’m talking months after the Iowa caucasus) and given up on all others, it wouldn’t surprise me if McCain got the Repub. nomination. He just needs to hang in there. He’s not bad (all the other Repubs have more issues- dings against them) but McCain doesn’t have the same spotlight and energy which are carrying some of the other campaigns right now.
As far as Hillary getting booed in Iowa… from what I’ve read, she got booed TWICE on the same question (immigration). The audience was looking for a specific answer and Hillary did her little avoidy dance and got booed, so she tried again and gave it her best little avoidy dance and got booed even more. When I read that I wanted to stand up and cheer for those smart Iowans who weren’t going to let Hillary (and hopefully their attitude will extend to all politicians who try the same) pull one over on them by giving a non-answer when a specific answer was necessary. In the polls, Obama was not too far behind Hillary and now he’ not that far ahead. He can still slip up and give Hillary back her supporters. Being an Obama man myself, I’m mostly concerned about the stuff I’ve been reading lately about Obama’s healthcare proposal. I think that’s his current weakness right now. I hope he is able to show that he can change course- granted Obama’s plan is only a proposal, but he can still amend it based on all the negative feedback he’s getting.
Whatever one thinks about the early states, one has to admit that they are important simply because they get things rolling. The “winning” campaigns pick up speed and suddenly everyone wants to be with the winner. No guarantees, of course…
I’m still not convinced the Dems. will take back the WH in Nov. but right now it appears they will. What’s interesting is that people think of Hillary as “polarizing” but think of Obama as someone who can unite people. To me there seems to be something off about this… not the characterizations, but that more Dem. voters support a polarizing person than someone seen as more conciliatory.
Huck’s FairTax – A fringe idea, NOT
Renown economist, Dr. Laurence Kotlikoff, has stated (9/26/2006),
“Yes I think [the U.S. is bankrupt] because if you look at our long term fiscal obligations and compare them with our tax receipts that are projected to come in, you end up finding the difference in present value is equal to $63 trillion. This is according to an update of a U.S Treasury study. So it is not an academic study but rather a government study.
Kotlikoff sees passing Huck’s FairTax as the vehicle to prevent economic meltdown.
And Kotlikoff is in good company.
The odds still favor Hillary Clinton and probably Giuliani (yuck), even if Obama does well in Iowa.
In Iowa, Obama definitely is doing the best; I don’t believe this will translate into a nomination or even equally good results for Obama (which are expected in Iowa) elsewhere. It’s not necessarily an anti-Iowa, anti-New-Hampshire sentiment in the larger states, but rather voters’ strategy as well as preferences, wanting to go with Hillary Clinton as the obvious leader this year among the Dems, to best ensure a Democratic White House in 2009, or on the GOP side, to pile on as many votes for whoever is chosen, to try to defeat Hillary Clinton rather than to desire the Presidency for the GOP candidate, in a positive sense.
To date there is nothing to dissuade me from my belief that Hillary Clinton is going to be our next President. That’s despite my currently being posted here in Iowa and seeing plenty of support for Obama. (There is support for many of the Dem candidates, but how much longer will that continue?)
The GOP leaders are not appealing (it has nothing to do with Mormonism in Romney’s case, but rather his earlier more-liberal record and that he’s from Massachusetts, a place with a reputation for being alien to the American mainstream) and they could lead not only swing voters, or non-committal voters to choose — to prefer — Clinton, but also from many non-liberal voters. (Consider the 2006 vote.)
I’m not a social conservative and as someone else on this site already said, Huckabee at times looks more like a Democrat than a Republican, but I like the guy and hope he at least becomes the eventual GOP VP selection. (I’d like to see him become one of the leaders but I don’t think this will happen, even if he wins Iowa.)