Pew Poll: Romney Now Leads Obama By Four Points
Yet another poll is registering the impact of Republican Presidential nominee’s triumph in last week’s debate against an almost universally panned performance by President Barack Obama, and it’s a biggie: Pew Research Center finds a big shift in its polling which now puts Romney ahead of Obama by four points:
In the first national poll to be conducted entirely after the opening presidential debate, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney now leads President Barack Obama by 4 points.
The poll, conducted by Pew Research Center from Thursday through Sunday and released on Monday, shows Romney leading Obama among likely voters nationwide, 49 percent to 45 percent. That’s a stark contrast from Pew’s mid-September poll after both parties’ conventions, which showed Obama up 8 points among likely voters.
The dramatic 12-point swing in Pew’s poll from Obama to Romney is perhaps the strongest piece of evidence to date that the president has paid a political price for his listless performance in the Denver debate. But the complete suite of post-debate surveys from national pollsters is only beginning to emerge, and the early indications are of a less dramatic shift than Pew is showing.
But it’s still a significant shift, which is important for various reasons:
*A big shift changes momentum in the race, which had recently with Obama.
*A big shift can impact partisan’s enthusiasm, and if Democrats have learned one thing over the years its that Democrats who are discouraged can stay home on election day (then bitterly complain about the consequences once they lose power).
*a big shift feeds into a media campaign narrative. Reporters will now be more sensitive to spot — and report — signs showing Barack Obama on the descent and Romney on the ascent, since that is the story line (not due to any conspiracy but just the way news flows work).
*A shift can fuel the articulation of a new conventional wisdom, which will be presented as the way this is now and the way it’s likely to be — unless, of course, it falls apart then it’s quietly swept under the rug.
But Big Mo is now with Romney.
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There is no doubt that Obama’s lack of aggression caused him to miss many opportunities to rebut effectively, and the members of his own election team are probably correct that he was somewhat stunned by Romney’s lies and the way he backpedaled on many of the policy positions that he had recently supported. Amazingly, he may have managed to convince some voters that even though, his Massachusetts health care law, which is the template for Obamacare, is great for Massachusetts, an almost identical program, would be bad for the country. He also painted a picture of himself as somewhat supportive of Wall street reforms although he completely distorted the Dodd-Frank bill as currently offering a blank check to those business designated too big to fail. Actually this designation makes it easier to regulate massive financial institutions and allows the Federal government to wind them down, and dissolve them without needing taxpayer funded bail outs.
Romney shamefully lied about the approximately 700 billion dollars which he claimed Democrats are cutting from medicare, even though taking measures to prevent waste by trimming cost in this way, will not result in a single person having their benefits reduced. He also didn’t mention that the budget proposed by Ryan, with its Medicare reforms would make the same 700 billion in cuts, for essentially the same reasons–Deceit, thy name is Romney!(and Ryan)!
Romney also created false impressions about the Individual Payment Advisory Board, that are just not true, as well as a host of other shamelessly outright lies.
Most amazing of all is the fact that during this election, both Romney and Ryan have decided to promote the notion that it is Republicans, who are saving medicare for seniors rather than seeking to privatize and diminish it’s effectiveness. This is kind of like Hitler claiming to be a devoted pacifist despite his undeniable role in the Genocide of six million Jews. Medicare is such a sacred cow to democrats, and so fervently defended by them, that this makes the Romney campaign undisputed spin-doctors in American politics–perhaps even surpassing the prowess of people like Rush Limbaugh–who’d a thunk it?
Obama now realizes that his attempt to remain above the fray was the wrong way to go, and undoubtedly will readjust his debate strategy. We probably will see more challenges on his part, and his insistence on truthful debates.
I think it is pretty much political par-for-the-course for the challenger to “win” the first debate, and what has become a bump for Romney could very well wane in the following weeks. To me though, it is somewhat disconcerting to see him initiate such audacious and even absurd, lies. Sadly, this does not say much for the American people, at least in the accuracy of how they understand the debate. I can only hope that if somehow, Romney and Ryan ARE elected, the realities of office will deter them in a way that will make them understand that they cannot do everything they promised–before they completely destroy the principles of fair compromise in politics. This is not to say that Democrats never distort the truth, but in comparison to the art-form Republicans have made of this tactic, they are just lightweights.
It’s quite a trick to make people believe your intentions are honorable, after promising to repeal every bit of Obamacare one day, and then insist on saving parts of it that work the next! Private insurance companies are businesses and exist primarily to make money, just like every other business. They are not going to police themselves into voluntarily eliminating the provisions that would deny people with pre-existing conditions–not without a pooling of resources such as the individual mandate makes possible to ensure the success of the ACA.
I hope that Obama takes any steps neccessary to make the public aware of all the blank spaces and impossible math, that independent fact checkers have noted in their criticisms. In the absence of objective facts, Republicans may as well decide to create their own version of the Dictionary–something I have no doubt they would do, if it would help them win this election! To me, the matter is no longer one of relativity in politics. It IS Republicans who indisputably employ amazingly audacious campaign tactic–much more frequently and, with any chance they get!
Noted Lincoln expert believes Obama won the first presidential debate.
Most pundits, left and right, say Romney won the first presidential debate. But not Gene Griessman, author of Lincoln and Obama, a new book that examines similarities between the 16th and 44th presidents.
Griessman sees a parallel between the Lincoln-Douglas debates in 1858 and the 2012 debate between Obama and Romney.
Here are Griessman’s comments:
The debate formats and issues were different, but there are striking similarities.
For one, a lot of people thought Douglas won those debates. We revere Lincoln today, and want to believe that Lincoln demolished Douglas. But that was not the perception at the time.
Stephen Douglas was a feared and formidable debater–confident and powerful. Even when Douglas misstated facts, or when an opponent landed a blow on him, Douglas didn’t show it.
But Douglas made some statements about slavery in those debates that upset many voters, and hurt him badly in his presidential race. And we know who won that race, don’t we!
History has repeated itself.
Romney, during the debate, was concise and self-confident. Obama was almost deferential. Incidentally, people said the same thing about the way Lincoln spoke to Douglas.
But Obama said nothing that will cost him votes, and Romney did.
For example, Romney attacked PBS and Big Bird. Romney promised he would end government subsidies of a few hundred million dollars to public television–a fraction of less than one percent of the federal budget–while defending government subsidies of billions to Big Oil.
That will certainly cost him some votes, maybe quite a few votes.
Extremists in the Republican Party don’t understand that millions of Americans love–cherish–public television and public radio, so they don’t see it as a problem.
But it is a problem for Romney, who already is in a world of trouble with Latinos, blacks, and women. Now PBS is another issue for Romney to deal with.
Already there are bumper stickers saying Save Big Bird.
Here’s the bottom line.
Virtually all Americans have already made up their minds. No Obama haters have decided to vote for Obama because of the debate, and no Obama supporters have decided to vote for Romney because Romney had a good night.
Obama may not have gained any votes, but he said nothing that will cost him votes.
So, the only change will be among those who have not yet made up their minds–moderates and independents, many of whom love public television and public radio. Those are votes that Romney needs, and a new issue that he does not need.
Gene Griessman is a sociologist and creator of a one-man play “Lincoln Live.” An excerpt from the book and additional similarities are at http://www.lincolnandobama.com.
emily16, that’s a nice thought, but I don’t think it working for Obama like it did for Lincoln. Maybe if the Obama team can really make the point how Romney shifts positions as faster than he changes underwear.
Edit: Um, no that wasn’t a jab at his religion.
emily16,
I hope your Lincoln debate example is correct, but with polls showing that about half of the Nation is favoring Romney, and trending more that way everyday, are you sure the average person will fight tooth and nail for big bird? Even with all of the other great shows on PBS? And are you sure many people won’t say, “good, at least Romney supports the military.” Saber rattling and chest thumping are usually effective in an uninformed electorate–unfortunately!
There are plenty of things to be offended by in Romney’s flip- flopping statements, but without Obama properly addressing his falsehoods, I doubt the average voter will have enough information about where Romney stands, and, mainly false information, about where Obama Stands.
I don’t think this race will be a walk in the park for either candidate, but, I am very hesitant to put all my eggs in one basket about the eventual outcome.
Above is the problem…democrats have too much faith in the american public and republicans know exactly what they are dealing with. While the Big Bird comments are funny, they have no impact. No one is going to have their vote moved by Big Bird when they are afraid of the future.
there is no talking around how terrible Obama was in the debate…he was awful. Romney told a ton of lies… so what? that is what politicians do. Obama should have been ready for those lies and his people did not have him prepared.
For some reason I think the Obama campaign is pulling a H Clinton campaign…. too arrogant and too sure of themselves.
This race should be over right now…there is no excuse for what happened.
The stats (more than anything else) point up the fickle nature and stupidity of the electorate. The reason I say this is because the debate changes nothing in the record, nothing about the character, etc. It’s an act. No wonder this country is so screwed up, people don’t even know how to think anymore. Political Rubes.
The american public has been terribly mis or un-informed for quite a long time. It was Obama’s job to counter Romney’s lies with either facts or his own lies. Obama did neither.
these people get into the high ranks of politics because they are exceptional at manipulating facts and the american public. When two equal politicians debate one another, they usually cancel out each others crap and some truth eventually comes to the surface. In this case, Romney destroyed Obama, leaving truth dead in the gutter.
Another debate like last week will be the end of Obama’s campaign. He cannot get worked like that again.
Sure, Obama performed abysmally, but the electorate can’t be let off the hook. I mean really, years of record shot down by an hour of acting? Has the electorate allowed itself to be reduced to little more than idiotic spectators? It’s pathetic.
Zephyr, you seem to imply (correct me if I’m wrong) that you think Americans have been overwhlmingly happy with Obama’s record. I don’t think that’s the case, and he mainly was polling a bit above Romney on the strength of his likeability. In the debate, he made the mistake of not seeming likeable while also not gaining anything by it. If he had either attacked, and come across as a tough fighter for the more progressive viewpoint on the issues under discussion, or just been affable without rebutting Romney strongly, he would have at minimum held off Romney’s bounce. As it was it was the worst of both aspects because he was surly but not strong.
CStanly,
I’m agreed that Obama should have done much better but, I think Zephyr’s point about the public forgetting the record, is valid. Since Obama took office, we have recovered the four million jobs lost at the beginning of the recession plus more than 325,000 more. That last figure may seem weak, but think what had to be done just to get into positive territory (including battling with obstructionist Republicans) also try considering that Obama’s actions prevented a massive Depression, that could have had us reeling longer than the crash of 1929. We are also ENDING, though contingency forces may remain, two long and deadly wars–one of which was not even needed! And don’t forget that we finally got Bin Laden!
However, even with all of the positive accomplishments from the Obama administration, we are being scared silly by the deficit problem–as if ANY president wouldn’t have had to spend vast amounts of revenue to prevent a complete collapse.
So here comes Romney and Ryan, pointing to themselves as financial saviors and somehow spinning the facts, to make it seem like a health care program in Massachusetts which was the template for Obamacare, is somehow dangerous on a national scale. We are also getting our sensibilities electro-shocked into believing that Republicans are the ones who are most concerned about Social Security! Please, GIVE ME A BREAK! If Mitt and Paul are elected it is ultimately our fault for not attempting to look into what is really happening!
Instead of thinking about whether we are better off now than four years ago, the real question to ask is, “would we have recovered as much as we have, if Obama had not taken the emergency actions that he did?” Even Bush began to seek solutions with an inadequate stimulus right before leaving office! Give the President a break!