Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Obama widens lead over Romney despite jobs data
Bob Englehart, The Hartford Courant
More signs of a bounce for President Barack Obama in the wake of the Democratic National Convention. The latest poll:
President Barack Obama, picking up support following the Democratic National Convention, widened his narrow lead over Republican U.S. presidential challenger Mitt Romney in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Saturday.
The latest daily tracking poll showed Obama, a Democrat, with a lead of 4 percentage points over Romney. Forty-seven percent of 1,457 likely voters surveyed online over the previous four days said they would vote for Obama if the November 6 elections were held today, compared with 43 percent for Romney.
“The bump is actually happening. I know there was some debate whether it would happen… but it’s here,” said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark, referring to the “bounce” in support that many presidential candidates enjoy after nominating conventions.
And bumps do disappear. But right now it appears Obama has had a positive bump and according to one new estimate Mitt Romney had a negative bump.
Obama had leapfrogged Romney in the daily tracking poll on Friday with a lead of 46 percent to 44 percent.
The president’s lead comes despite a mixed reaction to his convention speech on Thursday night in Charlotte, North Carolina, and Friday’s government data showing that jobs growth slowed sharply last month.
Obama’s lead over Romney is comparable to Romney’s former lead over the president after the Republican National Convention finished last week, Clark said.
“We don’t have another convention now to turn our attention to, so (Obama’s bounce) may maintain,” Clark said. “How big it’ll be and how long it will last remains to be seen.”
Yes, the ad blitz is coming; yes, the debates will be crucial, yes, turnout matters a huge amount too, anything can happen, blah blah blah. But right in front of our noses is some compelling data that in the first real skirmish of the campaign proper, the Romney-Republicans blew it.
Remember that polls are see-saws. This can and likely will change. Several times.
And — I’ll say it again — partisans will start to question the methodology and try to discredit polls they don’t like but never go after the methodology or try to discredit a poll that shows their side ahead.
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UPDATE: Josh Marshall looking at several polls that suggest an Obama bounce:
Whatever we learn about an Obama bump, I think the bigger issue isn’t whether Obama got one but that Romney seems not to have gotten one. And he’s the one who needed it.
Yes, the race is very close. But the one thing more striking about this campaign than the closeness of the race has been President Obama’s small but consistent lead.
Romney is the one who really, really needed the convention to shift the campaign conversation and start convincing undecided and tenuous Obama voters to switch to his side. That seems not to have happened. And that’s a big deal.
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Interesting. With regard to the jobs data, maybe the public actually realizes there is a limit to what any president can accomplish when congress is this dysfunctional and obstructed.
The problem will not be the bounce, it will be the congressional races. If the country splits, then the Republicans (if Romney wins) will insist that the country wants cooperation (compromise) and insist that the Dems give it to them. If Obama wins, the Reps will insist that their constituents sent them to congress to be a counter to Obama.
Whether or not the Dems will give in (should Romney win) is up for grabs. I do not expect the Republicans to give up their religion (the one of hatred, obstructionism, women and children last after the wealthy, and no regulations except where it concerns making sure that the poor and weak can be exploited).
If September is also down, some voters may think twice in the polling booth (how quaint, we now have a little cardboard table now).
it looks like the bump is holding, but again, only the swing states matter. National polling is nice, but not terribly relevant.
Do state polling and then average out the results for the swing states.
let that be the real national poll.
Good point, SL.
It is way too early to know if Obama’s convention boost will be sustained. In fact, it is still too early to know what its final size will be. (Let alone who will prevail in November.)
But one thing seems clear: Each party presented the election as a choice between a set of values and a vision for the country, and the public overwhelmingly chose the values and vision put forward by the Democrats.
Mr. Romney may still win in November for any number of reasons. But there are two questions being decided in this election: Which guy, and which vision. Based on the the reaction to what is the most sustained and detailed side-by-side presentations of the competing visions we will see, it seems unlikely Mr. Romney will be garnering any mandate for his program.
Not that such a thing ever seems to stop the winner from pretending they do have a mandate and taking the country down the cynical ideological conflict spiral. But for those of moderate views it is worth noting.
“There’s just one thing I think you ought to know before you take on this job. And don’t forget it. If you do well you’ll get no thanks and if you get into trouble you’ll get no help. Does that suit you?”- W. Somerset Maugham, Ashenden