Poll: Hillary Would Easily Beat Giuliani Amid GOP Popularity Nosedive
A new poll that suggests that New York Senator Hillary Clinton — now under fire in what has been long predicted would happen to her if she pulled way out ahead — would easily defeat former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani for President if the race was held today.
And the GOP in in exceedingly bad shape in the way it is viewed by many Americans, the poll finds. The Politico reports:
One year before voters go to the polls to select the next president, the Republican Party is as weak as it has been in a generation, a detailed new poll suggests.
That in itself is bad news for the GOP. How can it be overcome? If the approach is going to be yet another negative campaign (“Vote for us because we don’t smell as bad as the Democrats”), that might not be enough this time. And the specifics?
In a hypothetical match-up between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, bloc after bloc of traditionally Republican voters break for Clinton:
She wins the South.
She polls evenly with voters who attend church at least once a week.
She splits families with a household income above $100,000.
She loses rural voters and men — but only by a narrow margin.
All are constituencies Republicans have dominated for decades; George W. Bush won each by double-digit margins.
The findings from The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press remain preliminary, considering even the primaries are still two months off.
But Pew questioned an unusually large number of voters to try to paint the most accurate picture possible of where the presidential contest stands today.
Should the race continue down its current trajectory, the poll finds Clinton defeating Giuliani by eight percentage points.
Other recent polls, however, have placed Giuliani ahead of Clinton in a head-to-head race. But those polls predict Clinton would beat Fred Thompson, John McCain or Mitt Romney.
Of course the issue that some have predicted for months would be the GOP’s ace-in-the-hole is….immigration. Although there is a great divide on issues such as guest workers, etc. the issue that has come to the forefront of immigration issue is now whether illegal immigrants should be allowed official drivers licenses. That is far more certain to work to the GOP’s advantage as a “wedge issue” than the more problematic issue of immigration in general. And the driver’s license issue has already become a hot campaign issue.
Prediction: it will NOT be one that will work to Ms. Clinton’s advantage or to the advantage of Democrats in other races on the ticket on Election Day. But would even that be enough to negate growing dissatisfaction with the elite that now runs the Republican Party, the war and other issues?
On the other hand, The Politico’s piece points out its way too early (few expect Clinton would win the south) and many things could change in tactical and strategical terms.
But what seems unlikely to change is the downswing in Republican Party and Bush administration support:
Republicans, however, have become “increasingly negative,†as Pew puts it, about their party.
And they are falling behind in the party loyalty stakes, Pew interviews of some 20,000 Americans this year have found.
About a third of voters call themselves Democrats and a quarter call themselves Republicans — but when independents’ leanings are added to the mix, roughly half of Americans lean Democratic and only 36 percent lean Republican.
That Democratic advantage in party identity is larger than at any time since tracking began in 1990.
Bush’s poor approval ratings are a factor.
His approval rating has dropped from around 50 percent in October 2003 to about 30 percent today.
That is roughly equal to Jimmy Carter’s ratings at the low point of the 1979 energy crisis and Richard Nixon’s in the worst days of Watergate.
Additionally, the unpopular war in Iraq, the lack of a clear Republican front-runner and dismay among some conservatives about the authenticity of leading GOP candidates all play a role in the Democrats’ powerfully fortified position today.
There is also the Bush/GOP fatigue factor. Americans may simply feel it is time for a change — not just of personnel, but of the party administering the personnel.
11 Responses to “Poll: Hillary Would Easily Beat Giuliani Amid GOP Popularity Nosedive”
[...] House Poll: Hillary Would Easily Beat Giuliani Amid GOP Popularity Nosedive » This Summary is from an article posted at The Moderate Voice » Domestic and international news [...]
The Republicans were going to become irrelevant due to changing demographics in the U.S. (more blacks and hispanics, fewer private sector whites). However, the total incompetence of the Bush Administration had move up the collapse a couple of decades.
The real question is how will the U.S. function as a single party state. When you look at how the liberal white netroots have attack Obama over homosexual politics, it is clear that black voters will be big losers as the U.S. becomes a one party state. When black votes are no longer needed to defeat Republicans, white Democrats will feel comfortable in ignoring black voters.
I also wonder if the Democratic Party will actually become more conservative as previous Republican voters start to vote in the Democratic Primary.
On the other hands, when the U.S. becomes a one party state, there will probably be fewer contested elections and the general election in November will become moot since all of the election issues will have been decided months earlier during the Democratic Primaries.
And last, will the Democratic Party make a big push to make their primaries closed to keep out more conservative voters and will the Democratic Party push to eliminate initiative and referendum in the western states to keep non-traditional power bases from having a say in politics.
I honestly believe that SuperDestroyer (overcompensate much?) couldn’t have a discussion about blueberry pancakes without mentioning how minorities are ruining the cakes somehow.
davebo,
A snarky comment does not answer the question of what the U.S. will be like as a one party state. Especially when the government is so large and dominate that no group can afford to be considered out of power and considering that so many of the groups that make up the Democratic Party will never leave the party.
Also, I wonder how gerrymandering will occur when there is only one dominate political party? Will the Democrats be willing to up geopgrahic areas into the same district again?
Does it require an answer? Is the US now a one party state? Or do you believe Republicans are incapable of learning from their mistakes?
In other words, do you honestly believe they are THAT stupid?
davebo,
I do not consider changing demographics a mistake. There is nothing that the Republicans can do about changing demographics.
No sane person believes that the Republicans are going to make a comeback in California. And when the rest of the country has the same demograhics as California does today, the rest of the country will vote the same as California. The Bush Administration was the high point of demographics for the Republicans with a large middle class suburban whites. As the groups shrinks compared to blacks and hispanics, the Republicans are doomed. All President Bush has done as make it happen faster.
[...] Moderate Voice signals licenses could be the key “wedge” issue for Republicans. Although there is a great divide on [...]
Pew: Republicans face tough times
[...] could her stance on drivers licenses for illegal immigrants prove to be a wedge issue that Republicans will use to divide Latino [...]
[...] Joe Gandelman placed an observative post today on Poll: Hillary Would Easily Beat Giuliani Amid GOP Popularity NosediveHere’s a quick excerpt [...]
[...] Joe Gandelman put an intriguing blog post on Poll: Hillary Would Easily Beat Giuliani Amid GOP Popularity NosediveHere’s a quick excerpt [...]