Osama bin Laden has a released a new video and this time there truly is something new:
The terrorist chief is signaling that Al-Qaeda going to pull out all stops now to try and topple the Pakistani government — a government that is fragile by any measurement since it walks a political tightrope in trying to cooperate with the United States on the war on terror and trying to contain rage by many of its Muslims over the fact it is doing that:
Al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden called on Pakistanis to rebel against President Gen. Pervez Musharraf in a new recording released Thursday, saying his military’s siege of a militant mosque stronghold makes him an infidel.
That is basically spin, though.
It is no secret that Al-Qaeda wants to get Musharraf (who has survived various assassination attempts) because Pakistan is strategically located, Al-Qaeda now has operations in its remote areas, Pakistan has a large and Muslim population that is partially-radicalized, some internal security forces are reportedly sympathetic to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda — and because Pakistan has nuclear weapons. It would be a prime plum:
The storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad in July “demonstrated Musharraf’s insistence on continuing his loyalty, submissiveness and aid to America against the Muslims … and makes armed rebellion against him and removing him obligatory,” bin Laden said in the message.
“So when the capability is there, it is obligatory to rebel against the apostate ruler, as is the case now,” he said.
Bin Laden’s voice was heard over video showing previously released footage of the terror leader. The video was released Thursday on Islamic militant Web sites and first reported by Laura Mansfield, an American terrorism expert who monitors militant message traffic.
The message, titled “Come to Jihad,” was the third from bin Laden this month in a flurry of videos and audiotapes marking the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States.
The Pakistani government vows to continue its present policies:
Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad, a Pakistani army spokesman, said the army will continue its fight against terrorism, regardless of any threats it faces.
“We have the aim and objective, as our national duty, to eliminate terrorists and eradicate extremism. The Pakistan army will continue to carry out its role against terrorists wherever they are found, whether in the tribal areas (of northwest Pakistan) or elsewhere.”
“Such threats issued through videos or in any other way cannot deter us from fulfilling our national duty,” he said.
But will it be business as usual? Now that bin Laden has basically urged Pakistanis to overthrow the government, it would not be surprising to see the government step up its efforts to clamp down.
ALSO READ Ed Morrissey who discusses an earlier video by bin Laden’s second in command. Morrissey notes how Al-Qaeda’s clout seems to be on the wane.
Obviously the terrorists have a strong foothold in Pakistan, but it wouldn’t be surprising if al Qaeda did this but then struck at and removed the government of either Saudi Arabia or Egypt while all eyes are on Pakistan.
I also think it is a mistake on Bin Laden’s part. Al Qaeda survives in large numbers by being located in sympathetic or chaotic areas. The huge political and logistical difficulties of going after people in Pakistan’s tribal areas compared to the possible benefits is what allowed Al Qaeda to be only moderately pursued in its current location. If Al Qaeda ups the problems they cause by declaring war on Pakistan’s central government, then the effort to get them may become not so half-hearted. Pakistan is not like Afghanistan in the late 80s; there really is a government with substantial power, and, unless the military truly has been taken over by Al Qaeda from the inside, any assassination of Musharaff himself would likely just end up in another military leader taking over with greater emergency powers to pursue them.
One other thought: I guess all those speculations a couple tapes ago about perhaps Bin Laden isn’t really alive didn’t pan out.
I just don’t know what this means for the future of Pakistan.
While Pacature brings out some elements, the other side of the coin is to remember that the difficulty Pakistan’s army encounters when going after anyone in the tribal areas is what led to their misguided truce in the first place.
The reaction to AlQaeda may be strong, but what about capabilities?
The ungovernable tribal areas are strong providers of funds for both the Taliban and AlQaeda, and they are fierce fighters. The Pakistani public reacts to deaths of army members.
I think the situation is much too compkicated to make firm predictions. Very complicated. Very dangerous. Very scary.
Do we belive that the new video is from Osama?
Do we even care?
Is Osama Bin Laden’s opinion important, anymore?
Check out my analysis and radio show!
http://www.hotconflict.com/blog/2007/09/michael-savage-.html
pacatrue, a voice speaking over old video doesn’t tend to prove a lot.
[...] New Bin Laden Video Declares War On PakistanIt is no secret that Al Qaeda wants to get Musharraf (who has survived various assassination attempts) because Pakistan is strategically located, Al Qaeda now has its operations in its remote areas, Pakistan has a large and Muslim … [...]
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