Washington Post/ABC News Poll and NBC/WSJ Poll Find Ever Tightening Race
Two new polls should Republicans smile and Democrats highly nervous. Both the Washington Post/ABC News Poll and NBC/Wall Street Journal pols are showing an ever-tightening race. Look for the conventional wisdom to now do more than lip service to the conventional wisdom that Barack Obama, in fact, may be the underdog in this race — particularly as his party now seems split over the Bain Capital issue use.
Whoever would have thought that this early in the game a)the Democrats would appear to be more split than the Republicans and b)Romney would be inching towards a lead. The Pollster chart of combined, polls, in fact, shows Romney ahead. Details:
The Washington Post/ABC News polls:
Less than six months ahead of November’s general election, Americans are split between President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney, according to a poll released Tuesday.
The Washington Post/ABC News survey showed the two candidates statistically tied with 49% of Americans backing Obama and 46% supporting Romney. When asked which contender would best handle the economy, Obama and Romney were tied at 47%.
A marked enthusiasm gap opened between the two candidates in the new poll. Forty-eight percent of Obama’s supporters said they were “very enthusiastic” about the president’s candidacy, compared to 23% of Romney’s backers who said they were “very enthusiastic” about supporting the Republican candidate.
Asked further about each candidate’s character, voters seemed to favor Obama. They gave the Democratic incumbent higher marks on “understanding the economic problems people in this country are having” (48%-40%), as well as “has the better moral character to serve as president” (52%-38%).
The gender gap between Obama and Romney continued to persist in Tuesday’s survey. Women favored Obama over his GOP rival 51% to 44% in the poll.
As in almost every national survey, the economy was the No. 1 issue for voters, with 52% of respondents saying it was their top concern.
Despite a volatile and eventful past few weeks in the early presidential contest, President Barack Obama continues to hold a small – and slightly narrowing – lead over Mitt Romney, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
But given the public’s pessimism about the economy and the direction of the country, Romney finds himself well within striking distance in an election that has the potential to be as close as the 2004 race between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry.
And the bottom line:
“Obama’s chances for re-election … are no better than 50-50,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican Bill McInturff.“So much has happened, and so little has changed,” Hart adds. “And it tells you this is a dead-even race.”
This poll – which was taken after the anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death, Obama’s announcement in support of gay marriage, fresh economic worries about Europe, and last month’s tepid jobs report – shows the Democrat leading Romney by four points among registered voters, 47 percent to 43 percent.
In April, Obama’s edge in the survey was two points higher, 49 percent to 43 percent.
In the newest poll, Obama leads Romney among African Americans (88 percent to 2 percent), 18 to 34 year olds (55 percent to 35 percent), women (53 percent to 38 percent), independents (44 percent to 36 percent), and seniors (46 percent to 44 percent).
Romney, meanwhile, holds the advantage with whites (52 percent to 39 percent), men (49 percent to 40 percent), suburban residents (47 percent to 41 percent), Midwest residents (48 percent to 43 percent), and high-interest voters (47 percent to 44 percent).
Yet attitudes about the economy and country’s direction appear to give Romney more than a puncher’s chance to make up his deficits against Obama.
Here’s the Pollster chart of poll averages:
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Who would have thunk it.
This is starting to get interesting. One question though:
” particularly as his party now seems split over the Bain Capital issue use.”
What evidence is there that Dems are split on this issue? Or does this ‘split’ refer to 2-3 Dem politicians who spoke out?
“Whoever would have thought that this early in the game a)the Democrats would appear to be more split than the Republicans…”
I wouldn’t have thought such a thing at all.
Granted, the enthusiasm among Democrats for Obama is considerably less than it was four years ago, but there’s no “maybe we should field a primary challenger” vibe I get from them.
On the other hand, the GOP has just gone through one of the most contentious primaries in recent memory, and have reluctantly settled on Mitt Romney.
Huxley
Besides all the pundits talking aginst it (and showing up in the new GOP ad), Sen. Feinstien, Sen Warner, Ed Rendell and Jonathan Capehart are less than happy with the Bain ad.
If such stalwarts as Rendell and Capehart have a problem with the Bain ad, it’s shaping up to a split.
Something I predicted to happen by the end of June has also already happened: Romney’s approval ratings were hovering just around 35% only about a month ago, but I predicted by end of June they’d be up by at least 10 points. Well we aren’t even to June yet and they’re already up by well over 10 points, and are now slightly over 50%.
I dissent from the conventional wisdom in that I do not think “likability” is all that important in a Presidential candidate; although it can matter some, especially in a close race, I think it’s a tertiary indicator; despite the fact that his approval ratings have gone up about 15% in barely a month, in the polls this hasn’t translated to much of anything that I can see.
I cannot see myself voting for Romney come November, but I predict things to start getting seriously changing once Romney has actually clinched the nomination–which at this moment he still has not done. As of today, he has only 989 out of the required 1,144 required to win the nomination outright. While mathematically it is impossible to lose, he must spend most f his time between now and the convention mending fences and shoring up his support among Republican voters. Once he’s past 1,144 delegates (which will be soon), he can work a little harder to reach out to centrist and even liberal-minded voters, but his strongest efforts on that probably can’t begin until after the convention.
Think for a moment about what this electorate has done in the recent past. Think about how fickle and irrational it’s been. Think about how little it depends on anything approaching critical thinking ability. Think about what passes for it’s knowledge base. Think about it’s short, short memory. All bets are off.