Things They Are A Changing For the Dems

Posted By on Apr 20, 2012 | 6 comments

You’d think the Republicans wouldn’t have a chance. But they do. More than a chance. As the Times puts it, any hopes the Democratic party has of taking the House back are “dim.”

… Congressional redistricting, a decennial process that generally allows the party in power in each state to draw new lines, has not created a ton of opportunities for new seats for Republicans, as the party powers once expected. But it has forced multiple House Democrats, viewing their odds in new districts as slim, into retirement. Many of those districts are now either in play or solidly Republican, making the climb for Democrats all that more onerous.

On paper, Democrats need a net gain of 25 seats to take back House control. In reality, the number is closer to 30 or even 35 since the party not only is likely to lose the seats of retiring Democrats in North Carolina, but also face tougher odds in Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, Indiana, Illinois and perhaps in Arizona, in the district once served by former Representative Gabrielle Giffords.

Over all, 15 Democrats have announced their retirements from the House, compared with 10 Republicans. Seven Democrats and eight Republicans have also opted to run for other offices. Among the lot, Republicans leave far more safe seats behind than their Democratic counterparts. …NYT

According to the Cook Report, it’s the Democrats’ retirements that are making it difficult for Dems to win back the House.

I know I’m not the only ex-Dem who’s aghast that Republicans could take both Houses and the White House in November. Rejoin the Democratic Party? Move to the right to accommodate its changes? No.

Cross posted from Prairie Weather

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Author: PRAIRIE WEATHER

  • ShannonLeee

    Reps won’t take the White House, but both Houses is a possibility.

    I think I would prefer grid lock to Rep control of our government. The last thing we need is the Tea Party running our country.

  • CStanley

    It occurred to me recently that there seem to be a lot more ‘rising stars’ in the GOP than in the Democratic party. And a few of the Dem ones have had to step aside due to scandals…Corzine, Spitzer, Weiner.

  • http://www.deanesmay.com DEAN ESMAY, Guest Voice Columnist

    As an ex-Democrat (and an ex-Republican) I am always amused when I read stories about the supposed “marginalization” of the Republican Party. This is a party which controls a majority of the nation’s Governor’s mansions, a majority of state legislatures, enjoy a majority in the House and near-parity in the Senate, and look to have a very good chance of making gains in the House and Senate and possibly recapturing the White House. For a marginalized party destroying itself, it seems to be doing an awfully good job of hiding it from everybody.

    The reality of the Tea Party set is that they represent an ideological fringe of their own party, and the longer the Tea Partiers are in elected office the more moderate they’re generally forced to become.

    I don’t know who’s going to win in November, but I do know that the biggest mistake liberals continue to make is in underestimating and misunderstanding their opponents. To their own undoing.

  • zephyr

    “I do know that the biggest mistake liberals continue to make is in underestimating and misunderstanding their opponents”

    I agree and have often said as much. Underestimating the power of fiction, spin, and demonization in the pursuit of power is always dangerous.

  • bluebelle

    As long as Limbaugh and Fox can keep spinning to millions of Americans delusion and devastation will prevail.
    Citizen’s United is also a culprit– allowing corporations and billionaires to elect those who will willingly carry out their agenda.
    Karl Rove’s goal during the Bush years was to create permanent Republican rule– Are we in danger of that? What happens –if all three branches become dominated by conservatives?

  • zephyr

    “What happens –if all three branches become dominated by conservatives?”

    You mean real conservatives or these crazy wackos who just inherited the name? That would be the point at which I became convinced the electorate was beyond salvage. I’d sell out and move to the U.P.