Here’s yet another piece of data that further underscores the flimsiness of the conventional wisdom during this election year. The long-held, often asserted contention that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is taking votes away from former Senator Rick Santorum and thus splitting the conservative “anti-Romney” vote has just been obliterated by a new Gallup Poll:
Maybe Rick Santorum shouldn’t be hinting so hard that Newt Gingrich should quit the Republican presidential race. A new Gallup poll shows Gingrich’s supporters would not necessarily go to Santorum.
In polling March 8-15, Gallup asked Gingrich voters about their second choice for the nomination. The result was an even split: 40 percent chose Romney and 39 percent chose Santorum.
“Gingrich voters would not be likely to coalesce behind Santorum,” Gallup analyst Jeffrey Jones wrote. “For many Gingrich supporters, Romney — not Santorum — would be their fallback option if Gingrich dropped out.”
In a race without Gingrich, Gallup calculated, Romney would have 40 percent of the vote to Santorum’s 33 percent. The 7-point lead is essentially the same as Romney’s 6-point lead over Santorum (34 percent to 28 percent) when Gingrich is included, Jones said.
The Gallup data show that all three candidates are competitive among conservatives. Romney and Santorum are tied for the lead among conservatives at 33 percent, while Gingrich is back at 16 percent. Among “very conservative” voters, Gingrich and Romney each win about one in five. Santorum is the heavy favorite in that group, with 45 percent.
Republican voters who prefer Newt Gingrich for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination are as likely to name Mitt Romney as their second choice as they are to name Rick Santorum, suggesting the race would not tilt in Santorum’s favor if Gingrich dropped out.
Some conservative Republicans have called for Gingrich to drop out of the race on the assumption that conservative primary voters would then unite behind Santorum as the conservative alternative to the more moderate Romney. But Gallup data indicate that Gingrich voters would not be likely to coalesce behind Santorum, suggesting that factors other than candidate ideology may be attracting voters to Gingrich, Santorum, and Romney.
A word about the conventional wisdom. It feeds itself. The conventional wisdom is often an assumption based on a)existing facts and b)an argument that seems to make sense so others pick it up and it’s repeated as a given. The problem is when new data emerges that undermines or destroys the given. The CW is picked up across the lines — by many in the news media, on weblogs, talk radio.
This latest bit of conventional wisdom means Santorum and conservatives will have to step up efforts to stop Mitt Romney.
And here is why: Romney will go to Tampa most likely to get the nomination since he’ll have a huge delegate lead.
P.S. That’s another bit of conventional wisdom.
That could also bite the dust.
MORE POLLS:
—Romney leads Santorum in Illinois:
The Illinois Republican primary election is projected to be a two man race between Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum on Tuesday.
The Fox Chicago News poll released Friday shows Mr. Romney with a six point 37-31 advantage over Mr. Santorum, with four days remaining until the Illinois election.
Illinois will be an important state for Mr. Romney, after he came in third place in the Alabama and Mississippi primary elections earlier this week.
—Romney leads nationally in two polls:
Despite recent losses at the state level, Mitt Romney remains the GOP front-runner nationally, according to two polls released Friday.
In the latest survey from conservative polling outlet Rasmussen, Romney leads with 37 percent, followed by Rick Santorum at 28 percent, Newt Gingrich at 17 percent and Ron Paul at 10 percent.
In the same poll last week, Romney led by 12 points over Santorum, 39 percent to 27 percent.
The 4 percent national gain for Santorum comes on the heels of Tuesday’s primary victories, in which the Romney campaign seemed to think it was poised to pull out at least one win in the Deep South, and raised expectations leading into the contests. Santorum ended up winning both Mississippi and Alabama, while Romney finished third in both.
Gallup’s five-day running average of polls produced a similar result, with Romney in the lead at 36 percent, followed by Santorum at 28 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Paul at 10 percent.
Gallup also found that Romney and Santorum were statistically tied as the second choice of voters who support Gingrich.
Forty percent of Gingrich supporters said Romney was their second choice, while 39 percent said Santorum.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.