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Newt Win In South Carolina Changes Nothing
As you probably have read or heard the networks have all projected Newt the winner in South Carolina.
So this means he’s won one, Romney has won one and there was one tie.
It also means Romney is the only one who has placed 1st or 2nd in all three and it does nothing to change the fact that Romney will be the nominee but will lose in November to Obama. The party leadership is simply not going to allow Newt to be the standard bearer for the GOP and Obama is simply not going to lose in November.
I can’t point to any specific stats to prove this to be true, but I think it is, so I thought I’d share my views.
13 Responses to “Newt Win In South Carolina Changes Nothing”
You are right – the lunatics are still in charge of the asylum known as the Republican Party.
Romney is as history as the Paleocene Epoch. Newt and the rest are the same. Independents will never side with this bunch of prehistoric poop now!
Ha!
Wow, a party truly divided and getting weaker…with the immense population growth predicted in the coming years to be centered in U.S. megalopolises, it does not bode well for the conservative right – this country will continue its march towards centrist politics…the question is which party will capitalize on the independent voters, or not…
Actually I think the results are more accurately described as Romney has won one, Gingrich has won one and no one has a clue what the real results were in Iowa since they actually lost the results for 8 precincts. They don’t even know how many votes there were in those precincts, much less who they were for. Yet many are scrambling to maintain the “special” status of Iowa in the presidential nominating process.
I think it could mean quite a bit. More ammo in the poo-slinging contest. Newt is a helluva player in that game. Nothing like putting the nominee into the real race covered in dung. Bring it.
Part of me is horrified that so many voters could pick an absolutely abysmal candidate tonight- but part of me is delighted to see a crack in Romney’s dominance.
Though I believe Newt would have no chance to win the general– the thought of having to listen to Gingrich’s lies, revisions of history and grandiose delusions until November is pretty depressing.
Iowa is like Florida in 2000. Someone had to win and it happened to be Bush buy a few hundred votes. There is no “tie” in politics. The GOP leadership wants to make the Iowa results as “Romney-friendly” as possible even though Santorum received the highest number of votes…. (Officially.)
As far as Romney getting the eventual nomination… I’m not too sure about that. If have HAD won Iowa and SC, then there would be more of an air of inevitability that people like to talk about. Remember coming into SC everyone thought he had won IA, NH and he was way ahead in SC polls. But there pretty much changed over the course of a day. But he lost by double digits in SC and so people are going to take a second look at Gingrich and Santorum. Paul won’t make the nomination. Now that there is no air of inevitability around Romney… and Romney is losing ground (with no plan to to fix his missteps- the Bain issue and the tax issue)…. he will find it difficult to recover. Not impossible, it’s just that this week his task of securing the nomination just became harder.
As far as the GOP standard bearers not wanting Gingrich…. remember the EXACT same thing was said about Obama in 2008 going into the primaries (and well into primary season). Everyone thought the most powerful political machine this country has ever seen (how people described the Clinton machine- not my words) would never let Obama win. But I pointed out then, as I will point out now… the people who send the candidate to the nomination are the VOTERS and delegates. I remember in 2008 there was a lot of talk about “super delegates” which I have not seen any talk of this year, thus far. And I remember in 2008 a lot of the super-delegates switched to Obama when it became clear the voters liked him, despite being an African-American. How the super delegates effect the GOP nomination… I don’t know. My point is that Romney getting the nomination is not certain.
It is still Mitt’s race to lose. But as we saw in SC, Mitt is capable of tossing it all away. The question is…can Mitt bring it home or will Newt continue to crush him in the coming debates?
My sentiments are along the same lines as bluebelle’s. In any case, it bothers me not a bit that these wannabees will continue beating each other up for awhile yet. I have to say though, I’m still flabbergasted that Newt has managed to resurrect himself. Don’t any of these fools in SC know who he really is??
I agree with Patrick. The problem is, short of Mitt utterly imploding (which is a distinct possibility), no one has the organization and cash to be ready for “Super-Tuesday” except Mitt.
Even with sudden infusions of cash, cash doesn’t equal automatic results, but, more importantly, it doesn’t create organization quickly.
And, in the end, organization is what wins you primaries, as Santorum showed in Iowa. You can buy it, or you can get it for free, but without that on-the-ground organization, all the commercials in the world won’t quite get it. Ask Michael Huffington or Meg Whitman.
And, since the primaries remain front-loaded, anybody but Mitt is basically winning Pyrrhic victories. It’s still Mitt’s to lose, although I guess he didn’t see fit to dust off his Olympic-referential “We got the SILVER!” spin this time.
Political nostalgists mourn.
I dunno Hart, many SC voters said the debates were a major deciding factor in their decision. Mitt has to beat Newt in the Florida debates and I don’t know if Mitt has Newt’s passion for it.
It isn’t like Mitt doesn’t have the intellect. It is more that he simply doesn’t connect with those “gut” voters.
I wouldn’t worry about organizing before Super Tuesday. There are enough unemployed who will be glad for any work, even organizing, for the next month. All it takes is cash and there’s plenty of that.
Plus the Tea Party “pariots” will be working (really working) for their favorites and I’d expect Newt to be that for most of them. He has the combination of having “balanced the budget” and knows as noone else how to use the “foodstamp President” appeal.
I’ve seen no report of Sara Palin’s commendation of Gingrich having made a difference. 48 million. 2008. The only question is if she will take 2nd place again. Only in America.
From the numbers, it looks like the socons are the biggest faction of Republican voters, although their numbers are literally dying. If either Newt or Santorum drop, the remaining one would have the advantage over Romney, and I’m not sure that Romney’s money would make up for difference. Money may be powerful, but it has its limits.