What Would It Mean If Ron Paul Wins Iowa?

Many pundits in the new and old media today are beginning to conclude (based on their readings of polls and in some cases reporting in the state) that Rep. Ron Paul could win the Iowa caucus. But what would that mean in specific terms? The Christian Science Monitor sees this as the impact:

But what if Paul actually wins Iowa?

Few experts believe he has much, if any, chance to win the ultimate nomination. His views – which include abolishing the Federal Reserve, drastically cutting military spending, and dropping any federal role in regulating marriage – are too far outside the Republican mainstream, they say. And despite being called the “godfather” of the tea party movement, an unscientific tea party straw poll taken by phone Sunday night gave Paul just 3 percent of the 23,000 votes cast.

That doesn’t mean, however, that he won’t be a factor.

An Iowa win would likely carry over to a reasonably good showing in New Hampshire, which has a strong libertarian streak and where Paul is already ahead of Gingrich in the most recent PPP poll.

A Paul win in Iowa – combined with a thumping of Gingrich in New Hampshire – is mostly good for Romney.

The more votes Paul siphons away from Gingrich, the less the GOP right has a viable alternative to Romney. It’s hard to see how Gingrich comes off of a poor showing in both Iowa and New Hampshire poised to do well, even though he seems – for the moment – better positioned in the next two contests, South Carolina and Florida.

Also, keep in mind that the more Gingrich talks and the more aggressively he talks, the more he tends to alienate voters — if not GOPers then in the general electorate. If there was the song “To Know Know Know Him Is To Love Love Love Him” in Gingrich’s case — given the reaction of those who served in Congress, some prominent conservatives and some conservative writers — as entertaining and fascinating as he is “To Know Know Know Him Is to Dislike Dislike Dislike Him,” politically at least. At the very least, someone who suggests a goal of his is to “change the planet” doesn’t show a self-esteem problem…or humility, which can temper arrogance or dangerous impulsiveness. MORE:

“In addition to [Romney's] chances of winning Iowa outright, a close second-place finish behind Mr. Paul would be a reasonably favorable outcome for him,” writes Mr. [Nate] Silver in his blog.

Silver adds, though, that a Paul victory in New Hampshire – where Romney is currently favored – could change things somewhat: “Although Mr. Romney might prefer that Mr. Paul win Iowa rather than a candidate like Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Perry who had a potentially broader base of support, all bets would be off if Mr. Paul won New Hampshire too.”

It’s also good news for Paul, even if it doesn’t propel him to the nomination.

Paul’s candidacy has always been about changing the conversation and promoting new viewpoints, and a victory in Iowa would give him a far greater platform to promote his ideas.

It’s easy to envision a Republican Convention, for instance, in which Paul plays a fairly large role. And a Republican Party that is forced to take Paul seriously rather regard him as a slightly batty uncle.

After months of shifting predictions of who will win Iowa – Paul is the sixth GOP candidate to come out on top of the polls there – could Paul finally be the one who peaks at the right time?

What would it mean if Ron Paul wins in Iowa and a strong second in New Hampshire?

It would mean the conventional wisdom failed again.