Fatal Flaw in the Surge
There have been many articles and posts of late on the progress of the so-called “surge” in Iraq. As both critics and supporters of it agree, political reconciliation is the end-game of the surge. Without Iraqi politicians coming together and agreeing on the fundamental questions that divide the nation, any short-term decrease in violence will go for naught. The strategy of the surge is to take over neighborhoods, insert GIs into Iraqi army units to “stiffen” them, allow Iraqi police to keep the peace, rebuild infrastructure, and create a breathing space within which Iraqi politicians can settle the nation’s problems. Clearly the performance of Iraqi police and military units is central to the long-term success of the surge.
Today the New York Times reports that a critical component to the strategy is failing miserably: the Iraqi police and military are disloyal to any central state. They either aren’t showing up for duty at all, or worse, they are completely in bed with the insurgents and the militias. Not only has the US army only cleared 1/3 of the neighborhoods it had hoped to clear by now, but the neighborhoods formerly swept are now back in the control of militias and insurgents. In many cases the very Iraqi soldiers who helped GIs clear out neighborhoods went back to work as militiamen or insurgents as soon as the GIs left.
If the Iraqis we are training and supporting are turning around and killing our soldiers, why are we persisting in this strategy? The Iraqi policemen and soldiers will not change their loyalties based on a heavy US presence. They will only adhere to a multi-sectarian Iraq when the politicians establish the basis for nationwide peace. Judging by the performance of Iraq’s political elite, that day is a long way off.
10 Responses to “Fatal Flaw in the Surge”
If this is accurate then there is no hope really.
I thought about including the sahel reference too. It shows how far the various factions in Iraq are from giving up.
[...] More at State of the Day, Jules Crittenden and The Moderate Voice. [...]
One thing we should have learned by now- any faction who has a gripe with another sect dating from the 7th century is not going to give up in our lifetime. Look at the Palestinians they have never given up and will never give up. It is very difficult to win a permanent military victory in a culture where your family is honored and supported if one of its members straps on a bomb and blows up 50 civilians in a cafe. As in Vietnam, we are losing because we don’t understand the culture of Iraq or its history.
Yes as the “ghost soldiers” stand up, we’ll step down. As Yogi Berra said,”It’s
DejaVueOperation Together Forward all over again.”http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oif-forward-together.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Together_Forward
[...] reports come out that the surge isn’t working quite as planned, what does it mean? Hold on a minute? Is clear and hold not working? Is this a sign the progress report [...]
Loyalty has always been the key and is something I’ve talked about for a couple of years now at least. A central government means nothing without loyalty. It doesn’t necessarily need the direct loyalty of common individuals, at least not yet, but it needs the loyalty of the tribal and ethnic leaders who are the ones that are really Iraq’s power brokers. That’s probably one of the greatest mistakes the US made – the failure to recognize that tribes and other local leaders, not individual Iraqi’s, are the key players in Iraq.
We’ll see if the “surge” improves over the summer. The final forces are just now getting into place.
“If the Iraqis we are training and supporting are turning around and killing our soldiers, why are we persisting in this strategy?”
Short answer, because the administration doesn’t have a clue. They think Iraqi’s deep down are just waiting for a shot to be like us.
Also, as to why they are never going to give up, why would they? Its their home, they aren’t going anywhere and have everything to gain by giving their all. We on the other hand are just pushing a political agenda of the moment, in the long run this conflict means very little to our nation’s future in terms of how we live our lives.
Iraqi soldiers for the most part are not “turning around and killing our soldiers.” They’re turning around and killing other Iraqis. The real problem has been keeping soldiers and police from different ethnic groups from killing eachother, not Americans.
Well right, but even so the point is still valid. Even more so as it shows the total chaos of the situation when the police ARE the guys they’re supposed to protect the people from. Some say that our strategy is to wait for the Iraqi’s to step up and take an active role in the future of their country. What they don’t see is that is exactly what the people are doing, just not the way we want them to.