A new Gallup Poll gives evidence to what many pundits have concluded: former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is running strong with traditional reliable Republican voters — but young Republicans (as is the case with the general electorat) favor former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney:
Newt Gingrich’s current lead in Republican preferences for the GOP presidential nomination is largely due to particularly high support from the types of Republicans who might be expected to turn out heavily in the upcoming primaries — older Republicans and core identifiers with the Republican Party. Roughly 40% of Republicans aged 55 and older as well as core Republicans (as opposed to independents who lean Republican) and conservatives currently favor Gingrich for the nomination. This contrasts with 21% to 23% of each group backing Mitt Romney.
Gingrich also leads Romney among those 35 to 54 years of age. Romney leads among young Republicans, aged 18 to 34, but, at 26%, is only slightly ahead of Gingrich and Ron Paul among this group, with both receiving close to 20%.
As I’ve noted before, Gingrich’s main appeal seems to be to people whose priority is the candidate who can deliver the most brutal zingers to Barack Obama during the campaign or during a debate. All the earlier talk throughout the year about how vital certain ideological litmus tests would be proved to be just that among these voters.
Gingrich’s main appeal is clearly to Tea Party movement members (who put aside their earlier proclamations about the kinds of candidates that deserved their support) members of the party’s Talk Radio Political Culture (talk show hosts who need to carve out and deliver sharp demogragraphics, create drama so listeners come back for more and who are not into nuance but confrontation and anger which is what captures an audience on radio or TV).
Romney’s problem is that his polling has not shown he has an ability to go beyone his existing demographic.
Overall, Gingrich led Romney by 10 percentage points during this period, 33% to 23%, with 9% backing Paul and 6% each backing Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.
Gingrich also enjoys a solid lead over his opponents among men and Republicans in the South. He narrowly edges out Romney among women and in the Midwest and West, while he ties with Romney in the East.
So the stage is set — and polls show that Gingrich would be a Godsend to Obama and the Democrats. In fact, I’d say he’d be a Godsend to any mainstream Democrat who headed the ticket.
FOOTNOTE: What is fascinating is Romney going after Gingrich’s wealth and Gingrich going after Romney’s wealth. It’s each pot calling the other pot a pot.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.