Trouble for Obamaland: Is He Losing the Reagan Democrats?
There could be new trouble for Obamaland: according to the Detroit Free Press, there are signs he is losing Reagan Democrats who once supported him:
President Barack Obama says he saved Michigan’s auto industry, but that isn’t helping his 2012 re-election bid in Macomb and Oakland counties, where Republican front-runner Mitt Romney’s strength helps give him a 5-point lead in the state a year before the election, a Free Press poll shows.
There’s time for the president to woo voters, but without the two key suburban Detroit counties, it would be difficult for Obama to win Michigan, a state whose voters have backed Democratic candidates in the last five presidential elections.
In a head-to-head matchup statewide, Romney tops Obama 46%-41% in the poll.
In Macomb, where Obama received 53% of the vote in 2008, the president trails Romney, 68%-20%. Even controlling for a high margin of error because of a small sample size in the county, Obama trails Romney in Macomb by at least 20 percentage points.
The other top two Republican presidential candidates, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, also lead the president in Macomb, though not in Oakland.
Obama’s problem lies with independent voters, who helped him win three years ago but now favor Romney in Michigan and several other swing states.
If this starts occuring in states throughout the US of A Obama, his team, and the Democrats will have a huge problem: it will signify losing a key chunk of the coalition that elected him.
Of course, what must be factored in also will be this: will the Republicans in the end nominate someone who will scare Reagan Democrats and independent voters away? (Stay tuned..)
5 Responses to “Trouble for Obamaland: Is He Losing the Reagan Democrats?”
Hmm… No mention of the fact the Romney’s father was the Governor of Michigan during times of prosperity in Detroit or that Mitt is all but Michigan’s de facto ‘favorite son’.
Considering history some might credit Romney’s position in the hearts of Michigan voters instead of some imagined “failure” on the part of President Obama… But then again, some it seems wouldn’t.
FWIW: Reagan Democrats voting Republican no longer exist.
They were individuals capable of putting what they thought to be “right” ahead of partisan politics.
The “Reagan Democrats” we hear about now are nothing more than wishful thinking and a right wing sales pitch aimed at non-thinkers of any political stripe.
I’ll believe it when I see it. The Reagan Democrats were for the most part members of labor unions and with the Republican attacks on the labor movement I’m just not buying it.
The Reagan Democrat is kind of like the Iguanadon, an extinct beast assembled from parts and speculations of an imaginative mind, from bits of other extinct beasts from deep in the past.
Mitt may be polling relatively well-for a Republican, but it’s not the big show yet, and when the Big Show comes to town (in 2012) the ‘moderate’ Dems will vote as they have been instructed by their Ward-i.e. for the incumbent, Democratic, president, regardless of professed leanings in the run-up, and regardless of President Obama’s performance in office.
It’s just what IS. It’s kind of like how they tried to spin both Dole, and McCain’s losses in the GOP. Democrats don’t change brands. The conditions for a GOP win next year just aren’t there, there’re fewer people than ever in the ‘No Party Affiliation” grouping that the GOP MUST win to win a national level election, and Democrats hold a marginal majority of the percentage among politically active people who actually vote.
Independents are Independent because neither the Republicans, nor the Democrats, offer them a brand they want, defenders of the Status Quo (like Bob Dole, or John McCain, or Mitt Romney) don’t have much to attract those whom are outside the echo-chamber of either Party, because the Status Quo is SCREWED UP.
Minus Independents, (whom are, frankly, more likely to vote for a REAL Liberal rather than a phony Conservative, or a REAL Conservative rather than a Phoney Liberal) the GOP doesn’t stand a chance in hell of gaining the White House-because even in Republican leaning areas, Democrats are a voting majority(or, at least, the larger plurality)-narrow, but there.
Reagan’s appeal in 1980 had nothing to do with his friends in the Falwellian camp, and everything to do with the extremely poor performance of Jimmy Carter. In 1984, Reagan had the advantage again, because Walter Mondale was tarred (Like Ford) with the results of another man’s Presidency.
There were few-to-no REAL “Reagan Democrats”, there were a LOT of Independents and unaffiliated who just wanted Jimmy’s hemorrage to STOP.
yes, the situation for a GOP in this year just is not there, there are fewer people than ever in the ‘No Party Affiliation” grouping
Speaking as a lifelong Michigan resident I have to believe the phenomenon is peculiar to this state. A lot of people probably think it’s cool that Romney came from MI and that’s enough reason to vote for him. Yes, people are that stupid.