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(UPDATED) Huge Ballot Wins For The Democrats Auger Well For 2012 But Do Not Guarantee Victory
Analysts trying to gauge the mood of voters heading into 2012 based on the results of contentious ballot issues in yesterday’s low turnout off-year elections should be forgiven if they awoke this morning with hangovers because from all appearances the Democrats defied expectations in beating back a Republican agenda that only one year ago had helped return control of the House of Representatives to the GOP.
The biggest victory came in Ohio where a law that restricted the right of public workers to bargain collectively was defeated by a 62 percent to 38 percent margin. But does the landslide victory — a slap in the face to anti-union Governor John Kasich — auger victories by President Obama and other Democrats in Ohio next year? Although Obama comfortably leads all Republican challengers in polls at this juncture, with unemployment at 9.1 percent in Ohio and few jobs on offer, his again taking the Buckeye State is by no means a certainty.
In Mississippi, voters defied expectations and rejected a so-called personhood amendment to the state Constitution by a 59 percent to 41 percent margin. The amendment would have banned virtually all abortions and some forms of birth control by declaring a fertilized human egg to be a legal person. This was another setback for the Republican agenda but it is unlikely to have any impact in 2012 considering that Mississippi is among the reddest of red states.
In Maine, where Republicans had ended same-day registration at polling places as part of a nationwide effort to suppress voter turnout, voters voted to restore the practice by a 59 percent to 40 percent margin, while in conservative Arizona voters appeared close to turning out of office state Senator Russell Pearce, a Tea Party darling and the chief architect of the state’s controversial anti-immigration law.
There were few surprises in big city mayoral races despite the anger at Washington.
Democrats Michael Nutter in Philadelphia, Stephanie Rawlings-Blake in Baltimore and Greg Stanton in Phoenix were re-elected, while in San Francisco, Edwin M. Lee, the interim mayor, was in a close race to become the city’s first mayor of Chinese descent.
Meanwhile, in Montgomery County, a Philadelphia suburb crucial to Obama’s victory in Pennsylvania in 2008, Democrats took control of the county commission for the first time in its history.
It is tempting to say that the great pendulum of American politics has against swept away from the right and back toward the center and beyond as it did in 2008, but a small handful of ballot issues do not a trend make. What the results of these ballot issues do emphatically show is that the Republican view that the party’s 2010 mid-term election gains represented a mandate is delusional.
All you need to do to confirm that is check out the looks on the faces of Kasich, Pearsce and other Republican stalwarts as the results came in last night.
22 Responses to “(UPDATED) Huge Ballot Wins For The Democrats Auger Well For 2012 But Do Not Guarantee Victory”
I wouldn’t make any rushed presumptions about 2012, either.
As for Ohio, I’d say it’s a big ideological rather than partisan win. (It’s the second, too, but only because of the nature of public employee unions.) That was a big rejection of anti-union tactics.
As for abortion, Mis’sippi isn’t the only state acting to restrict it.
“Huge Ballot Wins for Dem’s….” is just a terrible representation of what truly transpired yesterday.
I’ll go one further than Sentry did…the rejection of the Personhood Amendment was keyed by their Republican governor’s (Haley Barbour)own misgiving’s about the proposal and Repub’s casting their votes against it. It was also an ideological vote…not political.
jj:
While you may be loosing faith in me, I have quickly tired of your recycled arguments spiced with ad hominem attacks on me. Keep up the latter and you’re outta here. Understand, pal?
There was no bias in my post. I told it as it is. Republican policy, such as it is, is all about ideology, so of course the defeats in Ohio, Mississippi, Maine and Arizona were ideological defeats. In political mufti.
Now that I’ve stated the obvious, what’s your point?
I find it quite interesting — and telling — that these anonymous commenters feel that they can freely launch ad hominem attacks on posters and generously splatter the threads with their ideology, but quickly “lose faith” with posters who express opinions they don’t agree with.
I don’t think Ed Lee has won yet here in San Francisco, though he’s ahead. We have to have “instant” runoffs, which apparently take some time.
Dr. J:
Post edited to reflect that fact. Thank you.
Those two lesbians winked at me, should I buy a large pack of condoms? I think that’s what you’re trying to say here.
2012: Rs keep House, gain Senate, WH is a coin-toss. Same as yesterday.
mn:
A fair analysis.
I agree with the posters who suggest that the vote was less about partisanship and more about ideology. I believe that the voters trust NEITHER party (I know that I don’t, so, disclaimer here). The victory that the R’s had in the last election was misinterpreted by the R’s as a mandate for their most extremist views (note that the most here is referring to the range, not the whole). The voters wanted to see congress come together to solve problems. The representatives who got voted in (especially the Tea Party ones) will likely find that their ‘our way or the highway’ style is NOT what the voters wanted, and they will likely find out the hard way.
Then again the GOP took over the VA senate and took control of the Mississippi legislature for the first time ever and in New Jersey they elected a black, gay, Republican mayor.
So it is something of a mixed bag.
Patrick:
It indeed was, although try to get a gay Republican elected in red states.
Classic overreach, if you ask me. The instances of GOP over reading their mandate come back to bite them, as always happens with either party.
Heard Kasich this morning exhibiting a lot of class (and intelligence) by saying he heard the voters loud and clear and realized he’d pushed too far.
Yup. Classic overreach. The GOP was not swept into all those seats in 2010 to push their silly social agenda. They were put in to act as a bulwark against atypical Democratic efficiency.
Well sure, these are victories for democrats, but even more importantly, they are victories for common sense.
I believe the demographic equation may finally be catching up with the GOP. 2010 may have been the last gasp of the older, white hard-line righties. It will be interesting to see the voter demographics on election night 2012.
I’ll credit you for your optimism but it appears that you didn’t pay any attention to the elections yesterday.
The Rs will lose the house and have to learn some manners in the Senate or lose a few seats there too. The White house is President Obama’s for four more years.
I’ll go one more step and say that it’s a victory for the majority of Republicans too.
Most Republicans have watched their party being taken over by irresponsible far-right crazies… A few more election results like this and they’ll have their party back.
OK Steve K. I’ll wager now.
You set the wager, same amount on House, Senate and WH. You should like the odds since you’re holding 2 of 3 today.
Proceeds to charity of the winner’s choice.
1, Classic overreach, yes. We saw signs (a warning? I wondered) of that late in 2010 (before the elections) when the Tea Party and similar silent large part of the mainstream were upstaged by religious and (mainly) social conservatives.
2. “J.J.” clearly did not engage in ad hominem, nor has misbehaved, despite false claims by some here. I guess it’s easier to suppress dissent in the form of “J.j.” for example, Mr. Mullen, than, say, Fox.
“Most Republicans have watched their party being taken over by irresponsible far-right crazies… A few more election results like this and they’ll have their party back.”
I hope you’re right Steve, but the GOP has a l-o-n-g way to go before it regains any semblance of normal.
But can anybody confidently answer the question, What will the GOP replacement of the irresponsible far-right crazies (sic) be like?
And, can this replacement be expected to win elections?
I say, No and probably No. Have Republicans really defined themselves?
NO!
Anyone making predictions for ’12 based on this off year election has forgotten how much turnout matters. The losses for conservative pols and policies are based on the fact that the people energized to turnout this year were those who dissented from those pols and policies.