Dreams of yet another War
OTB’s Doug Mataconis and I never agree on any thing economic or domestic – he is after all an immature Objectivist/Randian jerk; That said we usually do agree on foreign policy and war. He has a good post today on the rumors of an attack on Iran’s nuclear installations.
We have reports that Israel, Great Britain and the US are planning to attack Iran. Doug:
So, expect the drumbeat of war to begin pounding again from the usual quarters. As far as the Israelis are concerned, there are obvious reasons to be concerned about a nuclear Iran, or a non-nuclear Iran for that matter. The rhetoric coming from Ahmedinejad and Khameni, along with the regime’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah, makes them a serious threat to the safety and security of Israeli citizens, and Israeli interests in other parts of the world. At the same time, though, it’s fairly clear that an attack on Iran wouldn’t be the cakewalk that some on the right seem to think it would be:
Iran’s forces may not be up to much but, with the help of Hamas and Hezbollah, they could wreak havoc. British and US troops in Afghanistan would be exposed to even greater danger than they are now – their bases in the Gulf, notably in Qatar and Bahrain, would be easy targets. The Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf, the canal through which more than 50% of the world’s oil is shipped, would be closed. What would arise from the ashes?
Some may say that is a price worth paying to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The suggestion is that there is a “window” now that would enable Israel on its own to strike Iran’s nuclear sites. Next year, the “window” would be left open to the US (and the UK) before Iran’s nuclear weapons reached the point of no return.
Such reasoning, if this is what it can be called, is that of the dangerous fool. How crushed and devastated would Iran have to be before it could no longer restart a nuclear programme, even one just involving fissile material as a weapon for terrorists?
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Why attack, or even threaten to attack, a country whose leaders are increasingly worried, more worried, about the state of the economy and internal dissent than any perceived threat from Israel? Iran is a far more sophisticated and divided society than the picture generally painted in the west.
If the Republicans push an attack on Iran as part of their campaign they are swimming upstream politically. They are already in a mine field when the criticize the Iraq withdrawal – 75% of the voters approve. Two thirds of the voters want us out of Afghanistan. You would have to be insane to think the American people would support a new war. Of course we have seen nothing that would indicate that today’s Republican party is sane.
This talk of war is nonsense – it’s not going to happen. I would really prefer that Iran did not have nuclear weapons but the same can be said for Israel. Pakistan and India – one more really won’t matter and might actually be an additional deterrent. Certainly not worth going to war for.
6 Responses to “Dreams of yet another War”
How do you think we should deal with the looming Iranian nuclear threat, Ron?
“How do you think we should deal with the looming Iranian nuclear threat…?”
Well there’s a distinct possibility that Iran may, sometime in the next few years, develop the capability to build a nuclear device which they could possibly launch against one of their neighbors.
Should they manage to develop this capacity, it would be a simple matter to inform them that, while such an achievement is impressive, we are quite some years ahead of them in this regard, and could at a moment’s notice put more warheads than they could ever possibly build within a few yards of the Ayatollahs.
How do we deal with the looming Iranian nuclear threat? Point enough nuclear weapons back at them to ensure their complete and total destruction.
It worked before.
“I would really prefer that Iran did not have nuclear weapons but the same can be said for Israel. Pakistan and India – one more really won’t matter and might actually be an additional deterrent.”
While this might be true, all it takes is one over-the-top nutcase in a position of power to commit the unthinkable. I have mixed feelings about whether or not Iran should be allowed to possess these weapons. That said, I don’t particularly want some hawkish, trigger happy, surrealistic patriot (republican) making any decisions about how to handle it.
We have to face facts. Nuclear capability is a national obsession in Iran, and has been since the days of the Shah. It has almost universal backing. Even the leaders of the “Green Revolution” backed pursuing nuclear capability. Thus regime change is NOT going to change Iran’s nuclear pursuits.
Sanctions are not going to cause Iran to abandon their nuclear pursuit any more than it caused India and Pakistan to abandon their efforts. When nuclear capability is an existential issue for a country nothing short of obliteration will stop it.
An Israeli military strike against Iran would be a disaster. First it would cause very significant casualties in Israel as Hamas and Hezballah fire off tens of thousands of rockets and Palestinians revolt. That is in addition to the damage caused by Iranian and Syrian missiles.
The world economy would go into a depression as half the world’s oil deliveries come to a halt as the straits of Hormuz are closed. The Sunburn mach 2.1 anti-ship missile would hit a ship in the Staits within a few seconds. There is currently no adequate defense against this missile, especially from slow moving tankers.
Economically, Israel would be devastated by a war that involves Hamas, Hezballah, other Palestinians along with Syria and Iran. Israel cannot fight a long war since most of their military is reserve units – not full-time. A military strike against Iran would embroil the mideast in a multi-year war. You will see elements of Egyptian army and citizens joining Hamas in the fight with a huge supply of weapons.
A military strike by Israel would not do sufficient damage to the 50 plus nuclear sites in Iran to delay progress by more than 6-9 months at best. Iran has plenty of mountains to move production deep underground. Even if the US and the West join in this air bombardment, Iran will live on to continue the fight. It would be suicide to put ground troops in as millions of Shite Iraqis would join Iran in a guerilla war against Americans.
What all this means is that containment and MAD are the only viable solution to Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capability. I’m not sure that Iran wants to go further than “breakout” capacity unless forced to by Israel and/or the US.
Having nuclear missiles, Iran will not announce their nuclear attack upon Israel. Therefore Israel will not announce their nuclear attack upon Iran. They may not even wait until Iran actually have nuclear missiles.
It would be better to engage Iran now than to have them engage Israel to their end later. Iran is controlled by mad men. These lunatics need to be removed from power. The only way to deal with the people of Iran is to stand up to them and take away their ability and desire to obtain nuclear weapons. The alternative is to be at their mercy.