Quote of the Day: Republicans Poised for Victory and/or Disaster on Debt Ceiling Crisis (UPDATE 2)

Our political Quote of the Day is actually several Quotes of the Day that underscore a growing consensus that the Republicans are poised for victory on the Debt Ceiling Limit by getting far more than the Democrats sought to give – but risk political disaster by not accepting their victory and pushing the United States either over the brink to default or negatively impacting the economy by dragging it out.

First, here’s CNN’s independent analyist John Avlon, who used to work for New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and also writes on The Daily Beast. Key parts from his piece:

Let me get this straight. The people who have been preaching the most about the dangers of American decline are right now helping to hasten American decline….

……But the blame for this stage of failure lies squarely on the party that unilaterally withdrew from the talks — and that’s the Republicans. House Speaker John Boehner has been struggling to put together a grand bargain with President Barack Obama, running the risk of alienating the tea party base in Congress. He apparently capitulated to their demands Friday afternoon.

And while there is a chance that this is all just another act of Kabuki theater, it seems clear to me that Obama has led on this issue by being willing to risk the wrath of his political base in opening the door to significant entitlement reform. A gesture of potential political sacrifice such as that deserves to be met at least halfway…

….But it seems that actually dealing with the long-term deficit and the debt is not nearly as appealing as demagoguing it. We are learning that activists and ideologues pushing anti-tax pledges have nothing to do with the responsibility of governing…..

…Late Sunday night, the game of chicken had shifted to whether a short-term extension of the debt ceiling — which Obama had previously ruled out in an attempt to get the parties to focus on a long-term plan — would be passed. Default is the alternative.

It wasn’t long before journalists pointed out a quote from Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in which he was arguing what is now the administration’s point just a month ago: “I don’t see how multiple votes on a debt ceiling increase can help get us to where we want to go, we want big reforms. … I am not so sure that if we can’t make the tough decisions now, why we would be making those tough decisions later.” This is just more evidence of situational ethics in Washington, with hackish hyper-partisanship posing as principle.

The bottom line is that the two political parties are deeply polarized. The American people are not. We have every right to be frustrated with the way they are playing politics with our future.

There’s a lot more so go to the link and read it in its entirety.

Next, MSNBC’s excellent First Read, which is produced by NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Brooke Brower. First Read reminds us what some conservative talkers, pundits and bloggers are trying to downplay or rewrite:

*** But remember: Republicans started this fight: All of this finger-pointing, posturing, and politics — with the U.S.’s credit rating at stake — have generated a considerable disgust at Washington, at both Democrats and Republicans. But it is important to note that Republicans started this fight by tying deficit reduction to the debt ceiling (when many of these same Republicans have voted for clean debt-ceiling hikes in the past). The president and his party have indicated their willingness to pay the ransom — with some concessions — but Republicans won’t accept it. The irony to all this is that Republicans have won the larger argument they started; they just haven’t figured out how to declare victory. What seems to upset many Republicans is how the president (using the bully pulpit) got to the right of them on deficit reduction. Of course, now both parties have a lot on the line, the president doesn’t want to look like he can’t lead, even a broken Washington, and the Republicans want to prove they can govern.

And, finally, the Washington Post’s Ezra Klein (who is an excellent role model of someone who was a quality blogger on his own blog and made the shift to being a major newspaper’s blogger):

The question is, what happens if they don’t stop pushing?

Late last week, pollster Mark Blumenthal summarized the “consistent findings” from the polling on the debt ceiling. First, he said, “Americans prefer a deal featuring a mix of tax hikes and spending cuts to a deal featuring just spending cuts.” Second, “most of the surveys find strong sentiment in favor of compromise, especially among Democrats and independents.” Finally, “the surveys all show Americans expressing significantly more confidence and trust in President Obama’s handling of the issue than of either the Republican or Democratic leadership in Congress.”

Republicans have leverage because the debt ceiling needs to be raised and it can’t be raised without their support. But they don’t have popular support behind their position or their leadership. They can push this up to the brink and win, because Democrats really, really, really don’t want a debt-ceiling crisis that could set back the economy. But if they push it over the brink, they’re likely to lose, as the public really, really doesn’t want Congress to create an economic crisis that will set back the economy, and they’re primed to blame the GOP if one does in fact come to pass.

My prediction: If there is negative impact on the economy (either due to a default or close to a default), Republicans will suffer at the polls because they will lose a big chunk of independent voters (Avlon, who has also been critical of Democrats over the years, is an example).

The reason: Polls show that many independents lean one way or another or they are former members of parties who are not happy with their old party. Some Republican-leaning independents are some former GOPers who are not enamored with the dominance of the Tea Party movement and talk-radio political culture on how their former party operates. It’s hard to see how a default or close to default with negative financial impact is going to convince them to return to the fold — particularly since domestic and international media will take the GOP to task if it shoves the United States and global economy into more instability.

UPDATE: Dick Polman offers more evidence of what I believe will happen (and what is rapidly happening) with the GOP and independent voters:

In other words, the tea-partyers – who according to the polls, represent no more than 20 percent of the citizenry – continue to have a choke hold on Uncle Sam. The Gallup poll, back in April, reported that only 33 percent of Americans had a favorable view the tea-party movement; as far back as March 2010, only 37 percent were signaling thumbs-up. And yet the Republicans continue in their foolishness to defy the will of the landslide majority of Americans who implicitly understand (even if the Republicans do not) that compromise has been a fundamental tenet of politics dating back to the Founding Fathers.

On the issue of compromise, here’s Guy W. Farmer, a self-described independent Nevada voter who contributes occasional columns to a newspaper out there. He’s no fan of Obama, but these days – as he wrote yesterday – he’s far more upset about the current Republican extremism. The GOP had better pray that this guy is not a barometer of swing opinion. I yield him the balance of my time on this particular topic:

“Ideological extremism is on display every day in Washington as Obama and the GOP blame each other for the debt crisis; unfortunately, the president is winning this battle in the court of public opinion — ‘unfortunate’ because he’s vulnerable on fiscal issues. But instead of pressing the advantage they gained in last year’s mid-term election, Republicans are blowing it by protecting Wall Street fat cats and reverting to their tired old ‘no new taxes’ mantra.

“And who are these intransigent ideologues? Well, they’re people like Tea Partiers Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann, and radio talk show hosts Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, who keep shouting ‘No compromise!’…as they lead their fanatic followers toward an election debacle in 2012…

“I’m old enough to remember when House Speaker Tip O’Neill compromised with President Ronald Reagan to avoid a budget crisis, and when congressional Republicans compromised with President Bill Clinton to reform welfare and balance the budget. But that was then and this is now, when compromise is a bad word…The unintended result is to push independent voters like me – perhaps as much as 40 percent of the electorate – back toward the Democrats.”

UPDATE II: Some further reaction on Joe Scarborough’s show: