More on Iranian General who Disappeared
The Times spends more time and attention to the disappearace of the Iranian General Ali Resa Asgari. The Times‘s Richard Beeston and Michael Theodoulou quote the former head of the Mossad, Danny Yatom, as saying: “From the very start I thought this was a defection. All the signals showed that it was well planned and executed. He left Iran with his family, so that no one would be able to put pressure on them. I assume the defection was to the US.”
Although it’s not sure yet, it seems to me that Yatom is most likely right: this was probably a defection. Interestingly: it’s the first defection of such a senior figure since the Iranian “revolution 27 years ago”.
It now seems that Asgari doesn’t, most likely, know a lot about Iran’s nuclear program, but, luckily, he does know a lot about Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah and about Hezbollah itself of course. Beeston and Theodoulou point out that Western intelligence agencies and the Mossad don’t know a lot about Hezbollah.
A “Western source” explains: “He is a significant figure. It has so far been very difficult to get reliable information on how Iran ran its operations in Lebanon. This could be a big break.”
Nicholas Noe, “author of a forthcoming book on Hezbollah”, adds: “It means for the first time, Hezbollah’s adversaries may have accurate estimates of stockpiles, weapons types, even perhaps placement and tactics. This is crucial because the limits and placement of Hezbollah’s weaponry has been a major problem.”
It will be interesting to see whether Israel will change its strategy towards Hezbollah and whether any significant ‘successes’ will be achieved in the coming months (Hezbollah strongholds conquered, Hezbollah leaders arrested, etc.).
UPDATE
Fox claims that he’s not cooperating with any Western intelligence agencies according to an U.S. official.
4 Responses to “More on Iranian General who Disappeared”
I agree…this could be a great source of intelligence. Plus, even if he doesn’t know specifics about the nuclear program, he would have general knowledge (i.e., if there is actually the intention of building such a device; how would it be used in Iranian defense planning…bargaining chip, proliferation etc.).
Coincidentally – given this Iranian vs. West theme – although people here might not be into popular culture, for those that are “300″ is opening this weekend…and promises to be the first big political movie of 2007. Its representation of the Persians attack on ancient Greece, and the Spartans defense of the pass against overwhelming Persian assault — allowing the Greek city-states time to gather their forces, and defend western civilization — has been stirring rage across the Left in Europe and North America. Check out Dana Stevens almost foaming at the mouth rage in her review at “Slate”.
Things are moving in the wrong direction in the middle.
http://www.munaeem.org/archive/2007/3/172991.html
He was in Lebanon in the 1980s and early 1990s. He will not be very helpful to western intelligence officials.
Western Intelligence agencies have failed to penetrate Jihadi or militant organization. They rely on the information provided by intelligence agencies of all Muslim countries. These officials often mislead them.
[...] Original post by Michael van der Galien [...]