Will Greece be able to pay its bond debt and avoid default? Sure — with a few caveats.
This will happen if lenders feel so sure about the country’s future solvency that they lend it more money at rates comparable to what the U.S., Germany and Australia now pay. And if Greek workers decide to accept happily the crushing austerity needed to service their country’s debts, and rich Greek tax cheats decide that they should pay what’s asked of them without a protest. And of course if while all this is happening the austerity and massively taxed Greek economy suddenly rebounds and starts kicking off huge amounts of new wealth that can also go into debt servicing.
There are other things that could lead to a successful bailout for Greece and prevent national default. The meek might inherit the earth in the next few months. Lenders might decide to declare a Jubilee that forgives debt of every kind. A process to generate cold fusion using parts sold at Radio Shack might be discovered. Or people everywhere might come to love each other like the birds and flowers, and forget about money matters in the process.
Other than the solutions noted in the first graph of this piece, or the second, there are no possibilities whatever that Greece won’t eventually default.
Watching market gurus and the western world’s pols posture to pretend otherwise, attempting to patch this sinking Titanic with duct tape, is thus like passing one’s time watching an Olympics of idiocy.
More from this writer at http://blog.wallstreetpoet.com
.
There’s an entrance plan for the Euro, but not an exit plan. Like our own credit crisis, it seems easier to live with the cancer than to deal with pain of removing it.
Long term, I can’t see it working.