Sadly, the pessimistic scenario for Israel’s war in Lebanon outlined in this space earlier is becoming reality faster than expected. The situation on the ground may be worse than first hand analysts in Lebanon, Israel and the United Nations estimated.
It would be prudent not to neglect these signals as rhetorical assumptions. Several Western reporters have now confirmed that moderate Amal party Shiites are starting to fight alongside Hizbullah to face the Israelis. For decades, both were hostile militias fighting each other and later became bitter political rivals. Now, they are moving to be on the same page.
Worse, the top leadership of Al Qaeda, which hates Shiites as apostate “dogs�, has asked all fundamentalist Sunni Muslims to support Hizbullah’s war. The most violent of the Shiite haters is now calling for an end to over 1300 years of sectarian rift to fight Israel. Whatever its motives, the likely effects are worrisome.
In a Shylock-style outburst at a press conference in Rome, Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora braved Condi Rice’s glare to ask, “Is an Israeli teardrop worth more than a drop of Lebanese blood?� This is a riveting sound bite for Arab TV from the man Washington put in place after throwing out Syria.
Senior analysts in Rome confirmed that the weak Lebanese army has no choice but to “outsource� the country’s defense temporarily to Hizbullah. Hizbullah is still being castigated for visiting destruction upon Lebanon, but moves have begun to bury traditional domestic enmities in this time of war.
Ironically, Israel and the Bush administration, which often revile the UN, are again asking it for help. Israel continues to reject almost all UN resolutions about its borders and settlements, yet wants the UN to force Syria and Lebanon to obey resolution 1559, which involves disarming Hizbullah.
The UN is also expected to sponsor a well-armed international force to effectively patrol a new buffer zone with Israel. This is in addition to quickly delivering humanitarian aid after all the main roads across the country have been destroyed.
For those of us who are friends of Israel, the issue now is how to reach a better place whatever the history, hatreds and inconsistencies that brought us here. In common sense, no good can come from entry into Lebanon of Al Qaeda, a totalitarian murder machine that will immediately try to radicalize local Sunnis and send them to kill Israelis.
Worse, if Israel bloodies but cannot destroy Al Qaeda in Lebanon more civilians will die in India, Britain and elsewhere as its remnants and cohorts vent bloodlust in less forbidding locations.
Israel’s war option seems frail. On current evidence, Israelis do not have the political will to destroy a town of 40,000 people cramped into two square miles a stone’s throw from its border. If victory is the goal, Israeli voters must find the will to visit apocalyptic destruction in Lebanon to break forever the enemy’s will to fight.
Failing that, Israel should quickly negotiate whatever ceasefire is feasible before battle-hardened foreign terrorists descend upon south Lebanon. They will turn south Lebanon into a witch’s cauldron in their global war of irrational hatred against the US.
Remember Chechnya? Russia razed Groznyy literally to the ground but Islamic terrorism simmers years later.
Alternatively, Israel could make peace with Syria. Return the Golan Heights in exchange for an end to Hizbullah and interdiction of Al Qaeda fighters. That could also stabilize Lebanon for the long term.
This kind of generosity in war, negotiated quickly, could pay huge dividends for generations to come on all sides. Such thoughts may sound naive right now but what choice is there if Israeli voters do not have the stomach to kill civilians by the tens of thousands? That is how victory was secured in the final weeks of World War II to create a “New Europe”, completely free of militarism and desires for vengeance ending centuries of warfare.
Even if Israeli voters suddenly found the will to break their enemies, how could they stop without generosity the children of those they kill from seeking vengeance upon their children?
Memories of suffering can be tenacious. Even the wise Jewish people have not forgotten the suffering of their ancestors over 3,000 years ago and each year since. The children of their Semitic cousins are no different.
If sacrifices for peace are not made generously today, how fair is it for the present generation to leave for their children a home in a sea of enemies?
It would be a confession of intellectual and spiritual failure to say to the next generation of children, “Some of our enemies wanted to throw us into the sea but we did not have the stomach to completely destroy them. Nor did we dare to make the sacrifices necessary for peace because of the distrust all around us. So we bought a little time and left the tough decisions up to you. We could do no better than to leave for you a home in a situation of permanent war with people who hate us bitterly.”
Which walls and what buffer zones will protect Israeli children from tomorrow’s higher quality rockets guided by global positioning systems? The technology is available right now in electronic road maps and some phones. It cannot be kept out of terrorist hands forever.
Israeli voters must confront their fundamental choices. Either thoroughly destroy all enemies so they can never dream of rising again for at least a century. Or be generous in making peace as soon as possible to allow today’s enemies to obtain prosperity equal to that of Israelis.
No mother, Shiite, Palestinian or any other, would send her children to war if that were to end their constructive and prosperous lives. Then the tiny minority of hate-filled fanatics would be easier to locate and neutralize without creating new zealots.
And the entire world would be with Israel in weeding out the fanatics because those few threaten the lives of all. Right now, that is obviously not the case because the US had to use its veto in the Security Council to prevent a condemnation of Israel.
America is a super power with many problems of its own. Its leadership is easily swayed by domestic opinion polls. Its own enemies are changing constantly. It may not stand behind Israel for decade after decade. Who else in the world is truly Israel’s friend?