Numerous commentaries have already appeared on the recent announcement that Afghanistan may have as much as $1 trillion in mineral deposits, including at TMV—here, here, here and here.
In my post, I asked the question, “Will the minerals discovery in Afghanistan alter the course of the war?”
Of course no one can answer that question with any degree of certainty or accuracy.
Even the experts on such matters are being very coy and cautious.
Take for example, the comments by Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Paul Brinkley as he talked to NPR’s Steve Inskeep in “Morning Edition” about what impact this development may have on Afghanistan’s future, the war and U.S. involvement there.
First, as to the $1 trillion figure, Brinkley says that it’s an “easy number that’s used to kind of characterize the rough scales,” and that the number that “rolls up to” is in the $900 billion range, but does not include major deposits of other minerals, such as potential lithium deposits and known reserves of oil and gas.
As to the specific question on “How could this change the war,” Brinkley notes a “change in tenor” in the discussions with the Afghans, notes that Afghanistan, after 30 years of tremendous hardship, has had “no sense of its own opportunity to develop what we refer to as economic sovereignty.” Brinkley then addresses the question with questions of his own:
How is Afghanistan going to be able to finance its own defense?
How is Afghanistan going to be able to finance its own development?
He then expresses hope that the international community can—as Afghanistan becomes aware of the wealth they have under their feet and what it means for their development—begin to step away and leave behind a country that can ensure its own stability and future.
As to the danger that such new-found riches may only intensify its conflicts, as has happened in the Congo, Brinkley acknowledges that it is a source of concern and a challenge and expresses his hopes that Afghanistan will rather be a Chile-like example (some may differ on this assessment) and that the international community will step forward to avoid a “negative outcome from this opportunity.”
This is probably all we can hope for at the moment for Afghanistan and this is probably the only kind of answer we can expect to the question of how this development will “change the course of the war”—until other experts come along to enlighten us.
To listen to the entire interview, please click here.
The author is a retired U.S. Air Force officer and a writer.