Tunisia. Egypt. Yemen, Iran, Bahrain. Libya. Even Wisconsin. You look at the places pitch forked into the headlines and wonder if 2011 will be “Year of the Demonstration,” where angry protesters do political — or more violent battle — against their governments. And you have to conclude that political establishments will see what has happened so far and decide to crack down. Hard.
Demonstrations dotting the globe – this time fanned on by a transformed mass media, new media, social communications, and those with grievances seeing that demonstrations can work – are déjà vu to those who lived through the 60s Each demonstration is a textbook to aspiring protesters on what to do and what not to do. And just as big issues were at stake in the 60s, big issues are at play abroad and in the United States now. So the operative questions become: what are the end games – and what will endgames’ consequences be?
Consider the chronology:
The chain of Middle East events began in December in Tunisia with mass demonstrations sparked by unemployment and demands for political freedom. By January, some 50 protesters had been killed by police. It ended with President Ben Ali fleeing into exile. Tunisia’s interior minister, Farhat Rajhi, has now taken steps to steps dissolve Ali’s party.
Demonstrations’ efficacy as a political tool inspired the virtual revolution that exploded in Egypt on January 25 sparked by high inflation, low wages, job losses and demands for more democracy. After twice suggesting he intended to hang around a bit longer, Hosni Mubarak got the hint that he didn’t have support from some troops on the street or military bigwigs and resigned on Feb. 11.
Tunisia and Egypt begat Bahrain where protesters gathered in Manama. The government cracked down, some 10 people died and the king released a number of political prisoners as a conciliatory gesture. Next stop: Yemen, where 12 people were killed in protests as Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh resisted demands for him to step down. News reports note that the more there is a crackdown, the more angry people want to get onto the streets.
But the technique doesn’t always work: in China attempts to get demonstrators on the streets using online techniques flopped. In Iran, amid clashes between police and demonstrators, the government signaled it’s ready for a brutal crackdown by squelching protests in the capital as Iranian lawmakers call for executing protestors and opposition leaders.
In Libya, one-time iron man Moammar Gaddafi sent out snipers and aircraft to take out demonstrators reportedly inspired by Egypt and Tunisia as the death toll climbed beyond 200. Reports suggest some troops are refusing to fire on demonstrators. His own ambassador to the US called for him to resign. Gaddafi’s response? A vow he won’t leave and a promise to offer reforms (right!). Look for continued turmoil.
What does this mean to the U.S.?
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Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.