There has been considerable speculation that Delaware AG Beau Biden is having second thougths about running for the seat formerly held by his father VP Joe Biden. The speculation grew when Biden attended a major Democratic event but did not, as many expected, announce his candidacy.
I think Biden would be wise to pass on the race in 2010.
To begin with he would have a tough race against popular Congressman Mike Castle. So that either means a very tough contest or worse yet an embarassing defeat (the last time a VP vacated a Senate seat was Al Gore and it went GOP).
In addition being a Senator when your father is VP may not be the easiest thing. It is probable that there would be occassions where either Beau’s personal views or more importantly his constituents views/needs would be in conflict with those of the administration.
It’s bad enough to be a Democrat bucking a Democratic adminstration while under lobbying pressure, but to do so when your Dad is the VP is certainly worse.
Biden would have no problem remaining Attorney General and would easily win re-election in 2010.
He could then run for the seat in 2014 when Castle might well retire (he’d be in his mid 70s) or he could run for Governor in 2016 (when the incumbent Jack Markell will be term limited). He could even run for the other Senate seat in 2018 should Tom Carper retire.
In short he has a wide variety of future options (he’d be 49 in 2018 if he waited for the last option) and could take advantage of any of them.
Obviously with the election a year away he has plenty of time to decide, but Biden was expected to be in the race already and his delays do raise questions. Then again he could announce on Thursday just to make my post moot.
Smart choice is to wait, but we will see what Biden decides in the coming weeks and months.