Poking around the net I found this gem in which Peter Ferrara declares that the GOP is going to sweep to a historic victory in 2012.
Now I am certainly not going to deny that both the President and the Congress have low approval ratings and that anything is theoretically possible next year. Then again it is theoretically possible that I could win the lottery and retire to an island with a bevy of suitors. But I’m not counting on it.
The first flaw in Ferrara’s analysis is his adoption of phrases like ‘ultra liberal’, ‘Marxist’ (yeah he went there) and so on.
In the first place I see no more validity in this argument than in the reverse offered by some Democrats that label the GOP as ultra conservative/Nazi/etc.
I agree with Obama on some issues and disagree with some. In some cases I stand to his right (some economic issues for example) and in others to his left (Iraq, marriage equality, etc). But there is no rational argument to say Obama is an ultra liberal marxist.
I’m sure some readers will disagree on that, but then I’m sure others would disagree if I made the same argument about the Republicans being ultra right wing Nazis.
So his first argument fails.
I also find only marginal validity in the ‘The Senate is bad for not passing everything the House did’. Once again I could point out that this is no more rational than the reverse.
Just because one chamber passes bills does not mean the other is somehow obligated to pass them too.
This doesn’t mean that there are not good bills in the House that the Senate should pass (or that there aren’t good ideas in the Senate too).
But the public is fairly evenly divided on most of these issues, so even if some voters are mad at one chamber or the other for not passing what the other chamber did, it doesn’t translate into a big sweep for one side
Indeed, I suspect most people who are 100% behind the House agenda would vote GOP anyway and vice versa.
Now the one thing the writer does get right is the fact that the math is bad for the Senate Democrats in 2012. When you have twice as many seats up for grabs than the other side it just doesn’t bode well for you.
On the other hand I could (and later will) make the argument that good news for Senate Republicans may be bad news for the GOP Presidentia ticket.
I enjoy a good political analysis as much as any political junkie, and I don’t mind if they go contrary to my own views. It’s why I can surf from Daily Kos to Red State without problems.
But the arguments need to have some solid basis in fact, and with respect I don’t think this one does.