Robert X. Cringely is only now in 2010 prediction mode. Today he looks at Microsoft — “In the simplest terms what we’ll see from Microsoft in 2010 is more of the same… the continued maturing of Microsoft into its ideal – IBM.”
Tomorrow he’ll look at Homeland Security. And on Tuesday he looked at the Nexus None (his words). Here, now, the two points he says everyone seemed to be missing about the Google phone:
1) there is plenty of room in the mobile market for both Apple and Google, and; 2) this product introduction really marks the ultimate decline and fall of so-called “feature phones” and the rise to dominance of smart phones. Within two years there will be no more feature phones, at least not in the U.S.
I caught #1. And agree completely on #2. We are seeing, says Bob, the beginning of the smartphone shakeout. There will be no more than three viable smartphone platforms:
So just as you have Windows, Mac, and some form of ‘nix fighting it out for desktops and notebooks, so too we’ll shortly have three major mobile platforms to choose from. iPhone and Android will be here for the long haul with the question being which of Symbian, Palm, Windows Mobile, or Blackberry will die?
What’s your guess? My guess is that Blackberry will be the third standard, Nokia will eventually leave Symbian for Android, and Microsoft will buy Palm but then screw it up, losing its position almost entirely in the mobile client space where smart phones will soon dominate, selling up to a billion units per year.
If you’re with me here and hungry for more, I suggest you hop on over and peruse the 75 comments on Bob’s post. Some say Palm will survive. Some agree with Bob on Blackberry. Nokia gets good conversation, too.
Me, I agree that Blackberry will be the third surviving platform. After all, President Obama refused to give his up. And the gray-flannel business types share his commitment to it.