Ceasefire Blues

March 26th, 2008 by JEB KOOGLER

And so, it begins anew. Although the 7-month ceasefire hasn’t come to an official end, Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army is again picking up their arms, this time to battle American and Iraqi forces in the Shiite-dominated southern port city of Basra. Local members of ISCI (led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim) and Dawa (led by Nuri al-Maliki) have fled the area. The fighting has recently spread to Baghdad, and Sadr City appears to be coming apart at the seams.

The renewed fighting, and the apparent disintegration of Sadr’s ceasefire, could easily bring about the unraveling of the myth surrounding the surge’s success: that the relative calm is likely to endure. By most accounts, the drop in violence experienced during the last few months of heightened troop levels can be attributed to several factors: the buying-off of Sunni militiamen (who now make up the 80,000-strong Awakening Councils), better American counterinsurgency tactics, successful ethnic cleansing, and the self-declared ceasefire of Muqtada al-Sadr’s militia. Of all of these factors, the last may well be the most significant.

If you look at the data, one of the most significant drops in violence occurred in August/September of 2007, directly after Sadr ordered his militia to lay low and put down their arms. At the time, the surge had been going on for several months and funding for the Awakening Councils had been ongoing for months longer. As Ilan Goldenberg notes, “the data seems to point to the fact that the Sadr Ceasefire more then anything else is what caused the drop in violence in the early fall.” Indeed, according to The Seattle Times, “U.S. commanders say the cease-fire played a key part in a 60 percent drop in attacks nationwide since the troop buildup ordered last year by President Bush reached its height in June.”

The apparent unraveling of the ceasefire, then, might well lead to a spike in violence, perhaps bringing us back to the high levels of 2006. If this occurs, our surge strategy will likely fall apart as the underlying strategic flaws become increasingly obvious. As a writer for Daily Kos argues, “if the surge had worked, Iraq would not find itself in today’s precarious situation, relying upon a radical cleric’s fragile ceasefire for [relative] stability.”

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 26th, 2008 at 1:11 pm and is filed under Moktada al-Sadr, Surge, Iraq. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

« Dancing With The Dollar

Mike Gravel Quits Democratic Party, Joins Libertarian Party, Vows to Run For President »

By posting comments on The Moderate Voice you are acknowledging and agreeing to the following general comments policy:

(1) The Moderate Voice's comments are hosted by Disqus (http://disqus.com). If your comment doesn't appear immediately, please be patient since it is an off-site system.

(2) All e-mail received from readers by The Moderate Voice is considered intended for publication unless otherwise indicated in the initial message from the writer. Please do not send us attachments unless you contact us and we agree to it.

(3)The Moderate Voice reserves the right to edit all e-mail and posted comments for content, clarity, and length.

(4) Our comment space is reserved for comments that relate to a post's topic. You should not reprint lengthy text from your own works or those of others, including news articles. You MAY link to them.

(5) Comments that are abusive, offensive, contain profane or racist material or violate the terms of service for this blog's host provider will be removed and the author(s) banned from future comments. Such comments also violate the very SPIRIT of this site -- which was created to encourage thoughtful and vigorous discussion among readers who may share differing viewpoints.

(6) All points of view are welcome on The Moderate Voice, with the following exceptions:

(a) Comments posted several times a day with the intent of dominating, re-directing or hijacking the thread by turning a discussion into the equivalent of a bitter shouting match.

(b) Comments posted several times a day that insult or call other commenters or blog writers names or repeatedly make the same point with the effect of or clear intent to annoy other commenters or blog writers.

(7) Name-calling, personal attacks, racist comments or use of profanity by any commenter, whether they are by persons who agree or disagree with the views expressed by The Moderate Voice will NOT be tolerated and will result in the deletion of the comment and the banning of the commenter's ISP address, without notice. In some cases a comment may be deleted and the writer will be given another chance. Commenters who virtually ASK The Moderate Voice to ban them by ignoring any warnings or daring TMV to ban them will quickly get their wish.

(8) Anonymous commenters should identify themselves with the same moniker, so readers know their comments are coming from a single individual. If they don't, they are subject to a banning.

(9)If we have problems with inappropriate or inflammatory comments from a commenter who it turns out gave a fake email address that person is subject to immediate banning.

(10) Quotes from material appearing on The Moderate Voice with attribution are allowed. Reprints are allowed only by permission from The Moderate Voice. You may request permission by e-mail.

(11) The Moderate Voice is a personal site. It is not the Government. It is NOT aligned with any political party. It is NOT promoting any specific candidate for office. It is not a public institution or a media organization. It is not a neutral site. It is intended to express and disseminate the authors' varying points of views. Writers on this weblog WILL take positions. It reserves the right to limit comments to those that, in its view, comport with its stated comment policy. Comments that do not comply are subject to deletion and banning of the author's ISP.

Disclaimer:

--Reading and posting comments at The Moderate Voice constitutes acknowledgment of and agreement to the terms outlined in this comment policy. This comment policy may be revised in part or in full at any time.

--All comments must comport with applicable state and federal laws. The Moderate Voice has no obigation to monitor, edit, censor, or take responsibility for comments. It may or may not act upon a violation of its comment policy once a suspected violation has been brought to its attention. Therefore, commenters are solely responsible for the content of their comments and should ensure that that their comments are lawful and fall within the stated guidelines of both The Moderate Voice and its hosting company.

--The Moderate Voice is not be responsible for injury or liability to any reader or commenter resulting from its own communications or those of commenters, that may be offensive, misleading, inaccurate, illegal, or otherwise unsuitable in the view of the reader. Readers and commenters further agree to indemnify and hold harmless The Moderate Voice from claims resulting from the use of any material appearing on The Moderate Voice which damages the reader, commenter or any other party.

--The Moderate Voice is not responsible for and might disagree with material posted in the comments section. While we strive for accuracy in our posts and DO correct errors, material posted by The Moderate Voice in its posts -- or those left by others in the comments section -- may or may not be accurate.

Read and Post at your own risk.