UPDATE #6: CNN, Fox, AP and NBC all project the sweep for the GOP. Only remaining issue is margins in the State House of Representatives but the GOP should retain control.
UPDATE #5: Initial returns show McDonnell winning the trio of Loudoun, Prince William and Fairfax counties though it’s just 10% or so of returns. But it this holds up it would be a huge switch.
It’s looking like the GOP may sweep all three races (Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General, something they’ve only once before since the birth of the GOP in the 1850’s).
UPDATE #4: CNN and Fox call it for McDonnell at 8pm EST
UPDATE #3: NBC calls it for McDonnell at 7:58pm EST
UPDATE #2: First returns from Northern Virginia out of Arlington County and the city of Alexandria. Both voted 73-27 for Obama and are now voting 62-38 for Deeds.
Most importantly though turnout appears to be way down. In 2008 Arlington County had about 110,000 voters and Alexandria had about 70,000 for a total of 180,000 votes or a 83,000 margin for Obama.
With about 25% of the vote in for both Alexandria and Arlington County the turnout looks to be 55,000 in Arlington and 35,000 in Alexandria or roughly half at 90,000 votes. That would give Deeds a margin of maybe 25,000 at most.
Obviously the remaining 3/4ths of these areas could represent bigger turnout or bigger margins, but when the current projected turnout is about the same as Obama’s victory margins last yeat, it’s clear things are bad for the Virginia Democrats.
UPDATE #1: About 4% of the vote in (so not much) but all 3 statewide GOP candidates hold 2-1 leads. No returns from Northern Virginia yet so we need to wait a bit before calling things (though even Democrats concede it’s going to be a GOP sweep, the only real issue is the State House numbers).
Some returns from the eastern part of the state seem to show a swing from Democrat to Republican. King and Queen county is small (about 3,000 votes) but in 2008 it voted 52-48 for Obama, now it’s 58-42 for McDonnell. Spotsylvania voted 53-47 for McCain but this year it is 68-32 for McDonnell.
Unless NOVA turns out huge for McDonnell the race is over.
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Polls have closed in Virginia. All the polls show McDonnell (R) with a solid lead over Deeds (D).
CNN Exit Polls show the following:
Independent voters going 60-39 for Republican McDonnell
Senior Citizens voting 55-44 for McDonnell
Under 30 voters supporting Deeds 52-46
Seems odd that with that big of a margin among Independent voters that they wouldn’t call the race but I expect it to happen soon.
No exit polls from MSNBC or Fox yet.
Early returns show McDonnell with a 2-1 lead but the numbers are very small.
Not sure this is really a big Obama referendum, Virginia normally goes against the White House, in fact the last time the White House party won the VA Governors race was in 1973 and that was a former Democratic Governor turned Republican, in 1969 a Republican also won (both contests under Nixon in the WH).