With polls show what many consider to be a landmark mid-term election tightening, a new USA Today/Gallup poll contains for Democrats some good news amid yet another sign that a Democratic takeover of Congress is no longer a “given”:
A national USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds remarkable parallels between the congressional elections Tuesday and the watershed elections in 1994 that swept Republicans into control of the House and Senate.
1994 is one of three key years (the others being 1964 and 1974) when there were landmark elections that represented major domination of the elections by one party. MORE:
•Then, likely voters by 51%-44% favored Republican congressional candidates. Now, voters by 51%-44% favor Democratic ones.
•Then, 52% said they were paying “quite a lot” of attention to the elections, the highest since the Gallup Poll began asking the question in 1958. Now, 50% say they are paying “quite a lot” of attention, the second-highest.
•Then, disapproval of Congress was at 66%. Now, disapproval of Congress is at 70%.
“Based on history, a 7-point lead among likely voters still suggest Democrats will take enough votes to win a majority of seats in the House,” says Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll.
So it’s a slam-dunk? No. There are some wild-cards that could still tip the scale, even if this poll is accurate:
What gives some analysts pause, however, is the sophisticated redistricting over the past decade that has made most congressional districts less competitive.
What’s more, President Bush’s last-ditch push for votes and Sen. John Kerry’s comments that seemed to denigrate the education level of U.S. forces in Iraq have helped energize GOP voters. A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7.
A Pew Research Center survey released Sunday also showed that an 11-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot two weeks ago had narrowed to 4 points among likely voters. “It’s gone from a slam-dunk for Democrats to take the House to a pretty good chance,” says Andy Kohut, director of the center.
The factors that created a difficult landscape for Republicans through the campaign remain unchanged. Six of 10 Americans in the USA TODAY survey say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. By 2-1 they say national issues, not local and state ones, are determining their vote. And on the dominant national issue, 56% call the decision to invade Iraq a mistake.
So if you strip it away, it boils down to whether the frustrations and conclusions of many voters can be thwarted by political structural changes in districts, and also swept away because a top party leader on one side makes a big campaign push and a former top party leader on the other side sticks his two feet, two legs and his nose in his mouth.
Note that this poll fits in with the general trend: Republicans, despite months of frustrations on many issues, are returning home. Will they return home fast enough so GOPers in Congress get to keep their House?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.