Faced with signs that North Korea might be making preparations for a nuclear test, the United States has basically told North Korea to “Cool it.”
Of course the language is a lot more diplomatic than that. Reuters:
The White House said Saturday that the United States had a “robust deterrent capability” in the face of worries that North Korea might be planning to test a nuclear weapon.
“We do have concerns about North Korea,” the White House spokesman, Scott McClellan, told reporters during President Bush’s visit to Latvia. “It is shared by our partners in the region. North Korea would only further isolate itself if it took such a provocative step.”
A “robust deterrent capability” is a nice way of saying: “We can take care of you if we’re forced to do so.”
At issue is North Korea’s nuclear intentions. In February, officials there said the country already had nuclear weapons, but this was dismissed in some quarters as perhaps being a bargaining ploy. What the White House seeks is North Korea going back to the six-party talks with the United States, South Korea, China, Japan and Russia. These talks have been stalled for nearly a year, with no progress to restart them anywhere in sight.
Some of recent concerns come due to the eye in the sky:
US officials believe that new satellite photographs of North Korea show intensive preparations for a possible nuclear weapons test, it was reported on Friday. The imagery is said to show tunnels being dug under a mountain in the north-east of the country and then rock and building materials being taken back in, possibly in an effort to contain an underground blast. The pictures also show what appears to be an observation stand a few miles away.
Details of the satellite intelligence were reported by the New York Times on Friday, quoting Pentagon and White House officials, who pointed out that the apparent test preparations could be a ruse to pressure the United States into making concessions at the negotiating table.
Voice of America adds this:”The images are said to show tunnels in the ground, similar to ones Pakistan built before its 1998 nuclear test.”
But is this for real — or a ploy? The AP:
The satellite images show North Korea has dug and refilled a significant hole at a suspected test site in Gilju in the northeastern part of the country, said the official, discussing intelligence only on the condition of anonymity.
The hole was dug in a manner consistent with preparations for an underground nuclear test, but it is not known whether the North Koreans deposited a weapon inside, the official said. In addition, the official said, they have built some bleachers a sufficient distance from the hole, presumably for viewing any test.
Officials elsewhere in the US government played down the developments. One who spoke on condition of anonymity said activity at the site could be consistent with preparations for a nuclear test, but other explanations also are possible.
The official said the US government’s working assumption is that North Korea could test with little notice and is believed to have the technical capability to do so. Its decision on whether to test is considered to be one of politics.
BOTTOM LINE: All of this taken together suggests two main possibilities: (1) North Korea is on the verge of a test, or (2) North Korea is indulging in some stagecraft to be in a stronger bargaining position.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.