The significance for Israel will be small even if the Palestinians get full or limited recognition as a State at the United Nations in coming days. Even though UN resolutions in 1947 and 1949 created Israel, it has ignored dozens of subsequent UN resolutions and refused to implement them.
It has done so with impunity since neither the UN nor the US or other governments have the power to force implementation. It can simply ignore the forthcoming resolution without any real diplomatic or other consequences.
Critics of current Israeli policies say it will be intolerably isolated in the international community. But that has happened time and again for decades. In the end, all have accepted Israel’s right to protect itself according to its own lights.
This time will be no different since the Israel-Palestine peace process has run out of ideas and forcing Israel’s hand is against the interests of major countries, such as China, India and Russia. They will not run the risk of setting a precedent under which a UN resolution becomes a reason for forcing a country to fundamentally change its approach to vital issues affecting its national security.
More than half of China’s territories are in jeopardy because of restive Uighur Muslim and Buddhist Tibetan minorities seeking autonomy or, if possible, statehood. Over 40% of India’s territories are affected by left wing extremists fighting for better deals for the rural poor or some kind of autonomy. Almost the entire Russian Federation, outside “European White Russia” and the southern Cossack territories, is potentially unstable. Its numerous “republics” are held together in an iron fist and Chechnya, other Muslim areas and distant Asian territories could come to boil at any time.
Many South American and African countries also have problems of tribal separatism in which they do not want political interference by foreign governments using the UN as a conduit. Authorizing “humanitarian” intervention in Libya led by the US and NATO is one thing. Forcing Israel to accept Palestinian sovereignty without reliable peace is quite another. No government will allow a precedent as significant as the “question of Palestine”, which might be used against it when its own restive minorities demand rulings at the UN.
However, very few governments outside the US and Europe, would refuse to approve a symbolic resolution that confirms Palestinian statehood without actually giving it statehood. So a situation where the US vetoes Palestinian statehood in the UN Security Council would go down fine with everyone.
A subsequent move in the General Assembly for limited sovereignty will give everybody a chance to voice support for a Palestinian State without having to walk the talk. The certain prospect of a US veto provides refuge for everyone. Even if all Europeans vote “yes” in the Assembly, this fundamental will not change. Russia, China and many Asians, South Americans and Africans would panic if the US were to abstain or vote yes in the Security Council. For then, they too would have to seriously consider making peace to end internal conflicts or face impositions later by the Security Council.
However, a General Assembly resolution is not toothless. The Assembly is the parliament of all the world’s governments. If it approves Palestinian statehood, Israel will find it much harder to avoid more intense and frequent castigation through later moves in the Security Council, even if Washington backs it unequivocally each time.
The US is still the indispensable world leader but now it is exposed because of economic weakness, vastly overstretched budgets and homeland security vulnerabilities. It needs friends around the world to protect its leadership status until its strengths stand tall again. Israeli obstinacy in coming days may cost Washington dearly in terms of other friends.
Certainly, many will ask for a higher financial and diplomatic price to back US positions on other matters. This is hypocritical because a US “yes” in the Security Council would set a precedent that they do not want. However, all know that the US will cast a veto, so they can give full flow to rhetoric without worrying about consequences.
Israel can safely ignore the upcoming UN resolution, but the price for Washington could be steep in coming months and years. This should give pause for thought since the US will need all the friends it can find after it leaves Iraq and Afghanistan.
After those departures, only America’s friends in the regions can aid its political and economic interests. Otherwise, Iran, Turkey, Russia and China will establish irreversible footholds in areas where the US was leader for decades.