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Update II:
And here is the State Department’s take on the crumbling ceasefire:
The United States is gravely concerned by the deteriorating situation in and around Debaltseve in eastern Ukraine. The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission confirms that attacks continue in this area as well as other locations, including Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk, and Donetsk city. The Government of Ukraine reports that its forces have been fired on 129 times in the last 24 hours by Russia-backed separatists, killing 5 and wounding 25, including attacks on a convoy evacuating the wounded from Debaltseve. The separatists have publicly declared that they refuse to observe the cease-fire in Debaltseve, and OSCE monitors have not been provided security guarantees for access. These aggressive actions and statements by the Russia-backed separatists threaten the most recent cease-fire and jeopardize the planned withdrawal of heavy weapons, as called for in the February 12 Minsk packet of implementing measures. We are closely monitoring reports of a new column of Russian military equipment moving toward Debaltseve.
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We call on Russia and the separatists it backs to halt all attacks immediately, engage with the OSCE to facilitate the cease-fire, and, as called for in the packet of measures agreed to on February 12, fully implement their September 5 and 19 Minsk commitments.
Update I:
CNN describes the little-more-than-24-hours-long Ukraine ceasefire as “shaky,” while an Associated Press report at the Stars and Stripes is headlined “Battle persists for Ukraine railway hub, despite peace deal,” and the Guardian declares the Ukraine ceasefire “in tatters as clashes escalate in east.”
Both sides blame each other for violations of the ceasefire agreement, for the continuing fighting especially around the besieged town of Debaltseve and for the resulting casualties.
But hope springs eternal:
German Chancellor Angela Merkel appealed for the cease-fire to be respected, conceding that “the situation is fragile –[something] certainly to be expected with a view to Debaltseve,” according to the Associated Press, which adds:
President Vladimir Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov told Russian news agencies that the cease-fire is “changing the situation dramatically” and that Moscow looks forward to the heavy weaponry being pulled out from the front line.
Original Post:
Last Thursday, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany reached a ceasefire deal on the Ukrainian conflict.
The ceasefire took effect at midnight, February 15.
Will this ceasefire suffer the same fate so many other ceasefires have in history? Some broken even before they began? Some merely used to solidify, reinforce, rearm and resupply the warring sides?
We won’t know for a few hours, days or weeks.
From reviewing news reports, it appears that a tenuous ceasefire is “generally being observed” or “largely holding.” The fragile ceasefire dove is still “generally flying.” However, there are many “buts,” “thoughs” and other perils threatening sustained flight.
Guns fell abruptly silent at midnight across much of eastern Ukraine in line with the ceasefire agreement, reached after a week of marathon diplomacy led by France and Germany…But pro-Russian rebels announced they would not observe the truce at Debaltseve, where Ukraine army forces have been encircled.
And, “A Reuters photographer in government-held territory also said constant bombardment had halted overnight, although he heard a volley of artillery around 7 a.m. from the direction of Debaltseve.”
A newly declared cease-fire in eastern Ukraine appeared to mostly hold through the night Sunday, though both Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian rebels had traded accusations of violations by the morning.
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But the cease-fire was not being fully upheld in the area around Debaltseve, where occasional sounds of artillery fire and shelling were audible along the roadway from Artemivsk into the besieged city Sunday afternoon.
The Stars and Stripes quotes an Associated Press report: “A cease-fire that went into effect Sunday in eastern Ukraine appeared largely to be holding, officials said, except for around the strategic railway hub of Debaltseve.”
Fighting between government and rebel forces in eastern Ukraine trailed off in the first hours after a midnight ceasefire began – but steady shelling resumed later in the morning near the besieged city of Debaltseve.
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Kiev and the breakaway republics in the east said fighting had quietened and the ceasefire was mostly being observed.
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But the Guardian heard mortar fire to the east of Luhanske on the highway to Debaltseve, where up to 8,000 Ukrainian troops have been under rebel attack for weeks.[::]
Soldiers at the last checkpoint in Luhanske said the guns had gone quiet after the midnight ceasefire, but shelling of Ukrainian positions in the area had resumed around 6am – a report confirmed by the press service of Kiev’s “anti-terrorist operation”.
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Ukrainian soldiers said their positions in the village of Zolote in the Luhansk region had been shelled in the small hours of the morning. According to Luhansk governor, Gennady Moskal, fighting had quieted in his region, but a “complete ceasefire has not happened” and active fighting was continuing in a few areas. The government-controlled town of Popasna was attacked with Grad rockets, killing an elderly couple whose their house collapsed on them, he said.
TIME also reports that the ceasefire “appears to be holding” with some exceptions, such as around the strategic railway hub of Debaltseve:
Heavy fog shrouding sodden fields muffled the sound of artillery, but regular shelling could still be heard Sunday from Luhanske, a town about 15 kilometers (9 miles) to the northwest. Associated Press journalists were blocked from moving closer by Ukrainian troops, who said it was not safe to travel ahead.
Of course there are some skeptics who have already declared the ceasefire a failure; many who give it very little chance; others who warn of dire consequences if it does not hold and, fortunately, those who hope it will lead to a lasting peace.
Take Anatoly Hromov a senior lieutenant in the Ukrainian Army who broke out of Debaltseve in the hours after the cease-fire. “This cease-fire won’t amount to anything — they’ll have a break, and regroup their forces,” he says.
The Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko, has warned that, if the ceasefire does not work, he would declare a state of martial law across the country.
But on Sunday even Poroshenko joined Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s François Hollande and Russia’s Vladimir Putin in agreeing to move towards implementing the next stage of the latest Minsk deal, “the start of the withdrawal of heavy weapons to create two demilitarised buffer zones between 50-140km (30-85 miles) wide,” according to the BBC.
The world is counting on these leaders to keep that delicate dove flying.
Lead image: www.shutterstock.com
The author is a retired U.S. Air Force officer and a writer.