For political strategists and junkies alike, the redrawing of Texas Congressional boundaries is a fascinating and unpredictable dream. The state’s massive growth and Latino population surge always guarantees an increase in House seats, and with it, a gargantuan, Texas-sized struggle between Democratic and Republican interest groups over how they’ll be allocated. This cycle didn’t disappoint.
To be sure, this last remap did not feature a mid-decade, run for the border, as Democratic legislators refrained from fleeing to Oklahoma or New Mexico to avoid voting for a Tom DeLay orchestrated re-redistricting (ironically, that ten year chapter may have culminated just yesterday with the reversal of DeLay’s conviction).
But it did see drama played out in the courts, and it’s not over yet. But by dragging kicking and screaming to avoid giving Democrats all but the most minimal of gains (a single seat), Republicans resisted an opportunity to shore up most of their incumbents vulnerable to the demographic changes that will favor Democrats. So as that continues, did Republicans out-smart themselves for the long-term?
The Republican redistricting of the last decade was largely a success and for the short term, this redraw was largely similar. The Republican performance in many of the “on the bubble” seats increased by 1-3%. That gives some incumbents breathing room for a few cycles but, the rapid growth shows no signs of stopping. This has strong potential to make at least six formerly rock-ribbed suburban Congressional seats up for grabs by, if not 2016 or ’18, certainly the end of the decade.
Massive Growth
Let’s look at the growth. Texas grew by 4.3 million between 2000 and 2010 and the state gained four new House seats as a result. But in the ensuing two years alone, it would become more stratospheric than ever.
By December 2012, the Austin metropolitan area had grown 44% (118,000 people) since 2010, and the core city by 51,000. Metro San Antonio jumped by 91,000 people (core city 55,000), while suburban Dallas/Fort Worth increased 274,000(core city 53,000). Meanwhile, metro Houston jumped 256,000, and the city limits 64,000). Statewide, 2/3 of that jump was Latino, with another 20% being African/American or Asian. The latter in particular is planting a footing in suburban Houston. As this demonstrates, the exurbs are expanding at a fever pitch, while growth away from the cities is less rapid.
And many of the areas that saw growth relatively limited to non-Hispanic Whites, such as Frisco and McKinney Townships in Collin County, are so Republican anyway that any partisan shift is likely to be unfelt. Both cities ranked in the top 12 nationwide and their Congressman, Sam Johnson’s sits in a district that gave Mitt Romney 65%. Ditto for Weatherford in Parker County, where population has jumped 40%. But that county gave Romney 82% (not a typo), and Democratic opportunities in Kay Granger’s district are non-existent. But when it comes to suburban districts, that is the exception, not the rule. And Republicans must be kicking themselves, for it all could have been avoided.
How The GOP Overreached
First, let’s look at how the mess ensued.
Despite the 87% increase in minority growth throughout the 2000-2010 decade, the initial GOP proposal, signed into law by Governor Rick Perry, would have given the GOP three of the new seats, and bolstered the odds of survival for Republican Quico Canseco in the state’s sprawling 23rd district. As expected, the Democrats invoked the Voting Rights Act and sued. A federal court agreed, and proceeded to draw the lines for the ’12 cycle. It reversed the GOP’s intentions, and awarded the Democrats three seats and weakened Canseco. It also eradicated the strength of GOP Congressmen Joe Barton and Mike McCaul, converting their strong GOP turf into seats with an only slight Republican bent. But the new Democratic seats allowed the GOP to consolidate and bolster the Republican performance in most other existing districts that were already becoming more marginal.
Most of the establishment seemed happy. But the state sued, the U.S. Supreme Court ordered a stay, and in a subsequent trial, essentially struck down the court drawn map. Ultimately, Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott negotiated a compromise with a number of the plaintiffs. It would give the Democrats two of the four seats, including one in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, and give Canseco a handful of GOP precincts, but not nearly what he was hoping for. Additionally, with most Democratic friendly precincts in Republican Blake Farenthold’s old Rio Grande district encompassing a new district, Farenthold would get friendlier boundaries.
Democrats still cried foul, contending South Texas deserved a second Hispanic district. But the compromise held and boundaries were set for that cycle, and next. Canseco lost to Democrat Pete Gallego, which meant a 24-12 GOP edge in the delegation, one less than what the Democrats wanted, but two more than the GOP was prepared to give. That ratio seems likely to hold this coming mid-term. After that, who knows.
The Latino vote is by no means monolithic. A sizable number are conservative leaning. But President Obama did win 70%, a 7% jump from ’08. And that is the heart of the saga, and where, for certain GOP incumbents, the term wreaking havoc made soon be a fact of life.
Let’s look at some of the incumbents who may be most at risk.
Joe Barton
Barton’s district is without question the Democrats best opportunity, and the man they salivate most at beating. The three decade Congressional veteran watched helplessly as the new Texas-6 slip from a 60% McCain performance to 57%. And unlike other suburban GOP districts where Romney improved on McCain’s showing by 2-3%, his rise n the 6th was barely 1%. Barton had lobbied furiously to acquire heavily (2-1) Republican Johnson County, but it landed instead in Texas-25, the new seat that was carved out for Roger Williams.
Barton is known for a pugnacious streak that leaves him disliked by many colleagues including, for among other things, the remap. And now, he has a new enemy. Population growth.
In his 2012 re-election, Barton won the heart of his district, Tarrant County (Fort Worth) against a foe with little money by just 53-44%, a difference of 16,000 votes out of 176,000 cast. And Arlington is one of those areas that continues to diversify. With 365,000 people, it is now 40.7% white. In Grand Prairie, also in Tarrant, the white population is a mere 31.3%.
Barton is not without an ability to match the climate in other parts of his district. Romney took 70% in Navarro County, but fewer than 20,000 were cast. Ellis is his ace in the hole. 53,000 folks voted and Romney took 73% of them. Ellis is Barton’s home turf and it is growing as well. But if Tarrant comes through for a Barton challenger, it may not take much of a shift in Ellis. Wendy Davis hails from that area and may attract suburban women. So Barton could easily be held to 53% and after that, may be very well struggling to stay afloat.
Pete Sessions
The drop in Latino population in Pete Sessions’ district was 15%, but it now sits at a still robust 28%. Of that, roughly 15% is of voting age population. But it continues growing and the same political pundit who told me the Latino population inches up 2% each cycle also believes that North Dallas will be unrecognizable politically by 2020.
To compensate for the loss of minority areas, Sessions did pick up a portion of Republican heavy Colin County. His portion cast just 15,000 votes last year, but Sessions carried it 2-1. But the white decline in the two years since the census has almost eradicated that. Still, if the last decade was an indication, it may be too little to halt the swiftly proceeding changes. Bush’s 60% in ’04 dipped to 53% in ’08, which means the 2% boost McCain received via redistricting may not last long. Sessions won above 60% only once since 2004, in GOP heavy ’10. Last cycle, he took just 58% against a foe who campaigned little. The ironic thing is Sessions’ old district, which he gave up in 2002 to run here (now held by Jeb Hensarling), has remained far more Republican friendly.
If Sessions holds until his Rules Committee Chairmanship ends in 2018, the GOP may have a concoction. His name is Jason Villados, a newly elected Latino State House member who has the distinction of being the only GOP endorsed by Romney and Kay Bailey Hutchison in a contested GOP primary.
Other members have a little breathing room but may yet fall victim to changing demographics. Kenny Marchant is one of them. McCain’s edge rose post-remap 3%, to 55%, and Romney took 58%. Growth has continued — most by way of the massive DFW Airport in this district. Of the 35,000 new residents who relocated here in the past two years, fewer than 8,000 were white. But unless turnout rises substantially, Marchant may be okay. Yet it’s far from certain how long.
Lamar Smith
Smith is the wild-card. The leader of the Texas Republican delegation clashed brutally with Barton, and the affable Smith took one for the team. The McCain showing post redistricting fell from 59% to 56%, though Romney crept back to 59%. Smith took more of Travis (Austin), and now holds a large population of the Democratic city than any other member. And he lost it 2-1. But Smith also has a decent size portion of Bexar, which more than reciprocates. Most of the rest are small counties. But there’s also Hays.
The county’s population is not all that far away from doubling it’s 2000 status (now 168,000 from 97,000), and with it, the Latino population. It is now more than 36% Latino, compared to 29.5%. And Hays happens to house San Marcos, it’s county seat that in 2012 was the fastest growing city in the nation. Plus, Rick Perry and Ted Cruz got barely more than 50% in their respective races. The Congressman himself may not face life and death elections — at least until 2020 or so but, should he retire, the seat may be a decent, if not major Democratic opportunity.
John Carter
Carter also saw his share of McCain percentage drop slightly following the ’12 session. McCain took 57% under the old boundaries, but 56% in the new. But it’s probable that Carter, 70, may only want to serve another term or two, and a loss of that magnitude will not impact his staying ability for the short term. And it’s not like the trend in his district is counter to his survival. Cedar Park and Georgetown, both in the 31st, were the fourth and seventh fastest growing municipalities in the nation in 2012, and Romney improved on McCain’s percentage in both communities by 3%, to 59%, the same rate he took in the district overall. Recent Texas primaries have shown the GOP nominating folks with a more rigid appeal, so it’s possible that, upon Carter’s retirement, the Democrats may have a shot at the seat. But the numbers are still tight and the GOP may be able to ride this one out through the decade.
Mike McCaul
McCaul’s district stretches from Travis County to Harris, with rural areas in between. McCain’s showing post re-map ticked up one point, to 56% (Romney grabbed 59%). In anti-Republican years, it’s not too difficult to keep McCaul close to the margins. He won 55% in ’06 against a low-spender, and 54% in ’08 in what became a colorful opponent in a late targeted race. But map-makers reduced the Latino population somewhat, after the last round, to 26%.
If Hillary Clinton is strongly positioned in 2016, McCaul ay have a fight. Democratic Travis continues to grow and with 39% of the district, that could mean trouble. But Harris County is 36% and with Romney taking 70%, Harris and the rural counties in between still seem to give the GOP the slightest of edges. For now.
Finally, the newest beneficiary of the Republican remap, Roger Williams, saw his district gain 32,000 folks between 2010 and 2012. Only 4,000 were Caucasian. That would seem encouraging for Democrats, only Romney improved on McCain’s showing by 4%, getting 60%. Still, with seven years remaining until the next census, anything is possible with that kind of growth.
On to metro Houston. And Republicans may well be thinking that, down the road, we’ve got a big problem.
Pete Olson
On paper at least, Texas-22 can’t be taken off the table by any means. The district added 52,292 people since 2010 alone, giving it a population boost of 7.5% and making it the fastest growing Congressional district in the country. And politically, that has had noticeable impact, and while mixed, Republicans can’t be too pleased about its direction.
Tom DeLay would surely fret about even imagining the possibility of his Fort Bend County anchored district turning blue. But demographics are making it such. How much has the county changed? To the point that Bob Dole actually ran better — even in a three way race, than John McCain and Mitt Romney. The district already has a non-white majority but, incumbent Pete Olson has topped 60% twice. But one was in GOP heavy 2010 and the other was against a candidate with ties to Lyndon LaRouche.
Olson did wrest the seat from incumbent Democrat Nick Lampson in 2008, but Lampson managed a respectable 45%, and that was just as the changes were beginning. Furthermore, DeLay’s home-town, the populous Sugar Land, has elected –. Olson has attended to NASA’s interests and seems in strong shape for now. But if a strong challenger emerges, he may not be able to take his eye off the ball.
John Culberson
Houston’s Culberson is in a similar predicament. Minorities are a majority in what not long ago, was once the most Republican district in the nation. Redistricting increased McCain’s showing 1%, from 58% to 59%. But officially, the Latino population actually increased 6%. How is that possible? Because it had been growing so rapidly that it was actually higher pre-redistricting. And recent figures from the last two years showed the white population declining even further.
Culberson’s district encompasses some of Houston’s wealthy neighborhoods. But it also takes in heavily Hispanic areas. One of many challenges for Democrats is that Houston has a voter ID law that many say leads to voter suppression. And that can’t be challenged until after the next election.
In 2008, Culberson faced a stiff challenge from Michael Skelley and was held to 56%. With Houston’s growth the second highest in the nation, that could conceivably go far lower.
Blake Farenthold
Farenthold’s had a target on his back since he captured a 73% Latino seat in one of the biggest upsets of 2010. One rare agreement of both parties was that a new Latino district would take shape in his area. That did indeed occur but, rather than endanger Farenthold, mapmakers created the district around his Corpus Christie base. Even though Corpus (Nueces County) is nearly half the district and gave Romney and Farenthold the smallest of wins, nearly everything else is Republican, including Victoria County, which actually has similar economic interests.
That meant 59% for McCain and 61% for Romney. Do Democrats have a window? Hardly. The 27th is 51% Latino and Nueces, with the 6th largest rig, is undertaking new projects, which will fuel growth all the more. But the Latino Voting age population is barely above 40%, but low turnout even skews that. This means if the boundaries survive the decade — which is a big if, this one may be just out of reach. Any court ordered changes would work to Democrats favor.
The one factor preventing the Democratic advances from occurring faster — or at all, is turnout. Or more accurately, the lack thereof.
The 38% and growing population belies the fact that the Hispanics historically have cast about 18 to 20 percent of the Texas vote. And their votes are in no way monolithic, as many Latinos have conservative tendencies.
One political columnist told me Texas Democrats have been looking to “the brown vote” as their savior since before George W. Bush became Governor, but they just don’t turn out. But there are signs that is changing, slowly. Another columnist guestimated that the Latino voting percentage rises 2% each two year cycle. And the state party has little organization. That could change. A Gubernatorial bid by Wendy Davis with State Senator Leticia Van de Putte on the ticket may fuel a rise. A Hillary Clinton Presidential candidacy could do the same.
Either way, Texas is changing. Gilberto Hinojosa, Democratic state party chairman said that without organization, “It’ll happen by itself.” Ds should do dress rehearsals by having semi-strong candidates in ’14 and see what they can bring out. That way, they’ll be ready and waiting any time after.