A new CBS News poll indicates President George W. Bush is still stuck in the Benny’s Bargain Basement level of polling results after the death of Iraqi terrorist chief Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, which some analysts felt would given him a substantial boost.
And a Rasmussen Reports poll echoes the CBS poll’s finding: that there has been little change in perceptions of the President’s handling of Iraq.
UPDATE: But a NEW USA Today/Gallup Poll finds that Bush has benefited. A CNN poll finds confidence in the war is up since March.
CBS reports:
The death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has done little to improve views of how things are going for the U.S. in Iraq or boost President Bush’s approval ratings, a CBS News poll finds.
Mr. Bush has been cautious in his response to Zarqawi’s killing by U.S. troops this week, calling it “a major blow to al Qaeda” but warning that it won’t end the war “and it’s certainly not going to end the violence.”
Americans agree. Half think the level of violence in Iraq will be unchanged by Zarqawi’s death, while 30 percent say it will actually lead to more attacks against U.S. forces. Just 16 percent think the number of attacks will decrease as a result of his death.
Remember that perception is reality in American politics (until realities slowly change a perception). MORE:
Sixty-one percent also say Zarqawi’s death won’t have any impact on the terrorist threat against the United States, while 22 percent it will increase that threat. Thirteen percent predict a decreased risk of terrorism.
The most troublesome aspect of this poll for GWB is on his approval rating:
Mr. Bush’s approval rating for handling the war in Iraq is unchanged at 33 percent, while approval for his handling of terrorism remains just below 50 percent.
The president also gets mostly poor marks on domestic issues, with just one in three Americans saying they approve of how he’s handling both immigration and the economy.
Rasmussen Reports finds some similarities:
The death of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi reduced pessimism about the War on Terror over the weekend, but had little impact on overall perceptions of the situation in Iraq or the President’s handling of it.
Thirty percent (30%) of Americans now believe that terrorists are winning the War on Terror. That’s down from 35% in a survey conducted just days before al-Zarqawi was killed. However, there was essentially no change in the number who believe the U.S. and its allies are winning. Forty-two percent (42%) held that view prior to al-Zarqawi’s death and the current survey found 41% remain that optimistic.
There are several possible explanations for the lack of change in public opinion. One is that the public has grown wary of single events that are supposed to turn the tide in Iraq. It might be that people are waiting to see tangible benefits in the military situation before ascribing too much weight to this good news.
It is also possible that other issues on the domestic front are absorbing more of the public attention and driving public opinion. If this is the case, it is a reversal from Election 2004 when opinions about Iraq and the War on Terror were the driving force in public opinion. Two years ago, news from Iraq often had a greater impact on consumer confidence than business and financial news. That is no longer the case.
The President got absolutely no bounce from the al-Zarqawi news event. Thirty-one percent (31%) now give him good or excellent marks for handling the situation in Iraq. That’s down a point from 32% a week ago and is just one point above the lowest level ever recorded. Especially striking is the decline in confidence among the GOP faithful–just 57% of Republicans give the President good or excellent marks for his handling of Iraq.
What to make of this? As we usually point out (UPDATED AND REVISED IN LIGHT OF CONFLICTING POLLS):
–Polls are snapshots. What’s important isn’t a single poll but a trend. What will other polls say on these issues? So far Bush’s polls have been stagnant or largely down, with some minor fluctuations. So this poll could be negated by future polls. In fact, within an hour of us posting the original post, two new polls came out that contradicted the earlier polls. So it’s still too early to spot a definitive trend.
–Partisans crow about polls they agree with and try to discredit those they don’t agree with. They will say the methodology of a poll is wrong, but almost never when it’s one that puts their person in a good light. In this case, TWO independent polling organizations came up with results that are almost the same. One came up with a more favorable result and one (Gallup) came up with one that suggested Bush
may have lifted himself up out of the poll doldrums.
–Polls are see-saws.
–Where polls matter most, perhaps, is in the area of clout because perceptions influence power. These four polls don’t yet comprise a cohesive, consistent pattern. If a pattern emerges in future polls (Bush’s “bounce” unbounces; or this is the beginning of better poll numbers)he could be on the upswing. If new polls show he gets little “bounce” or the bounce vanishes it would indicate that short of capturing Osama Bin Laden or the total collapse of the insurgency, many Americans do not feel the war outlook will get better.
UPDATE from CNN:
More Americans expressed optimism about the war in Iraq after the killing of terrorist mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, suggests a CNN poll released Monday, but a majority still believes the invasion was a mistake.
The poll found 43 percent of respondents said the war is going either very or moderately well, up from 38 percent in a March poll.
Fifty-four percent said they still believe the war is going either very badly or moderately badly, down from 60 percent in March.
And 55 percent said they believe the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 was an error — a figure unchanged from an April survey.
So this one is more encouraging for the White House. What will future polls show?
And the USA Today/Gallup Poll finds some movement up for GWB:
In the wake of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s death, President Bush is seeing improvement in public confidence that the Iraq war is winnable, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows.
The new poll found that 48% believe the United States probably or definitely will win the war, up from 39% in April. It also found that 47% believe things are going well in Iraq, up from 38% in March.
The survey, taken Friday to Sunday and released Monday, also showed Bush’s approval rating going up to 38% from 36% earlier this month and an all-time low of 31% in May. The poll news came as Bush and members of his Cabinet met at Camp David to discuss ways to help the recently formed government in Iraq.
“Good news makes people feel better,” says political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report. “This is the first break the president has gotten in about 18 months.”
Still, 51% say the war was a mistake. Rothenberg and other analysts cautioned that long-term public confidence will grow only if the death of Zarqawi is followed up by increasing Iraq’s stability.
HERE ARE A FEW OTHER VIEWS ON THE EARLIER POLL:
—Editor & Publisher:
In a result that will surprise some, but not all, the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi did not seem to help President Bush’s ratings in the latest CBS poll. If anything, it may have hurt, as more Americans expressed the fear that his death would actually produce more of a terrorist threat, not less.
—Ron Beasley: “I have to assume that Americans are getting smarter. Apparently they have figured out if you turn enough corners you end up going around in a circle…So much for a Zarqawi bump.”
—Brilliant At Breakfast: “It’s over. The sheeple have awakened, and they have had quite enough of George W. Bush. Now the only question is why the Democrats (and Arlen Specter) are still capitulating to everything he wants as if it were still September 14, 2001 and his ratings were at 90%.”
I thought about analyzing this story with really intense research. You know the kind where someone does complex statistical testing on the sample sizes of Democrats vs. Republicans vs. the population and…
Then I thought, “What am I doing? This is CBS.” Is there anyone who doubted that CBS would find a negative view of Zarqawi’s death? Even PBS is accusing them of Liberal Bias. So, rather than waste my time, I’ll just add some snarky comments and then enjoy the rest of the day reading NewsBusters.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.