Campaigns for president often take unexpected twists and turns at this stage of the game, six to eight months before the real contests begin in Iowa and New Hampshire. The polls now represent more of a popularity contest than a true idea of the support a candidate will receive when the votes are more meaningful. At various times in past campaigns, candidates who led the polls vanished into thin air as the nominating date approached.
Never-the-less, having Donald Trump as the front-runner in all the polls for the Republican nomination, and Bernie Sanders leading the Democrats in New Hampshire and gaining support in Iowa and other states, makes for a strange political stew. Both out of the mainstream, one year ago no prognosticator would have imagined either of them in the race for president much less leading the pack. When one gives close scrutiny to their candidacies, there are some characteristics they both have in common, and others where they are exact opposites.
The most striking aspect of their candidacies is that they are both outsiders rather than integral parts of the political duopoly that generally dominates all the political contests. This may be the key to their appeal. Trump is a businessman who has supported Democratic candidates in the past, though he is running now as a Republican. Sanders is an independent. Though he is campaigning on the Democratic ticket for the presidential nomination, he is not a registered Democrat.
To say the least, Trump and Sanders are outspoken. Trump seems to be unfettered, coming out on the stump with anything that is on his mind. This has led to comments that are certainly unpresidential and probably have resulted in his increased ratio of unfavorable to favorable in public opinion polls. Yet his base seems to be sticking with him. They didn’t mind his statements about Mexican rapists and Latinos and are not bothered by his wanting to send all immigrants and their children who were born here back to their original countries. His supporters don’t seem to understand or care that this program would be totally impractical and would cost hundreds of billions of dollars. It would also devastate parts of the American economy, such as agriculture, the restaurant and hospitality industries, and so forth. And although Trump avoided the Vietnam draft himself by deceiving the Selective Service Board, there seems to have been no blowback relating to his comments on John McCain’s not being a hero. Nor about Megan Kelly’s menstruation causing her questions for him. Trump talks about making America great again, but has given no credible specifics of how he would do it. Fortunately for him, he’s running against a very weak slate of candidates on the Republican ticket, so he remains on top of the heap in spite of his asinine comments. Will his lead continue as the aspirants are narrowed down?
Sanders has taken positions that are out of the mainstream but have great populist appeal, such as Medicare for everyone, higher wages, very high taxes on very rich people to diminish inequality, and using the extra money for education and job training programs. He also wants to make community colleges and public universities free for all students so they will not be burdened afterwards with back breaking loans. Only small donations have been accepted by his campaign so far, but this may change if he stays in the race. Sanders has been slowly ascending in the polls and now leads Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. But Sanders’ base may be limited and Hillary has lots of money to use against him. (Of course, Hillary has to do something about her untrustworthy label.)
Soft-spoken, older, and not very charismatic, Sanders will have difficulty attracting centrists and independents to his banner even though he tells it like it is. Maybe that’s part of his problem as Americans are leery of hearing the truth about this country. Trump appears to be on a tremendous ego trip, an icon of inequality who has a large blue collar following. They don’t know about Trump being born into money, his series of bankruptcies, and how he took advantage of his partners and investors in the past. His base doesn’t seem interested in his background or his policies. They just revel in his anger, his bombast, his braggadocio, his wealth, and his apparent success with women. Perhaps they fantasize about being in his situation.
Both Sanders and Trump are native New Yorkers, a state that has not placed candidates on the national tickets since the Democrat Roosevelt in 1944 and the Republican Dewey in 1948. Trump is a Queens native and Sanders was born in Brooklyn, though he was elected to the House and Senate from the state of Vermont. Sanders and Trump may be riding high at the moment, but where will they be at this time next year? Should they be written off or will they survive the primary season? It’s too early to tell.
Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com
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Political junkie, Vietnam vet, neurologist- three books on aging and dementia. Book on health care reform in 2009- Shock Therapy for the American Health Care System. Book on the need for a centrist third party- Resurrecting Democracy- A Citizen’s Call for a Centrist Third Party published in 2011. Aging Wisely, published in August 2014 by Rowman and Littlefield. Latest book- The Uninformed Voter published May 2020