I’m afraid that I missed this column by E.J. Dionne Jr. earlier this week, but better late than never, as they say. It’s a great, highly interesting column about Hagel (and the other Republican candidates).
A thing worth mentioning, something that everyone should realize is that although Hagel seems to be a ‘maverick’ regarding his view on the war in Iraq, he isn’t much of a maverick regarding his other voting behavior. The National Journal ratings show that Hagel is more conservative than John McCain and Sam Brownback.
In other words, Hagel is the most conservative of (potential, as Dionne points out, he has ‘hinted’ that he might run) contenders. The only thing that makes him seem less conservative than he is, is his opposition to the war in Iraq. Now, if the war would suddenly become a great success Hagel will be doomed, but if it doesn’t… well, if it doesn’t, Hagel might have a shot.
To whom will disillusioned conservatives turn? McCain? Nah. Giuliani? For now, yeah, but what once people find out about his not-so socially conservative views, or his family problems, argues and wonders Dionne.
Dionne’s conclusion, though: “But disillusionment is not the same as rebellion. Republicans, usually not a band of rebels, still pray that Bush can succeed in Iraq. Thus Hagel waits, hyping a non-announcement to say he’s around if the world and the party move his way. What he really wants is to overturn the foreign policy of Bush 43 and restore the old-fashioned Republican approach of Bush 41. He may have to split his party and run as an independent to do it.”
It seems to me that Hagel has a lot of potential: his opposition to the war in Iraq – and the accompanying ‘maverick’ image – will make him acceptable to a lot of Independents / independent-minded voters, while, at the same time, his conservative voting record on other issues might him (somewhat) acceptable to (quite some) conservatives.
On the other hand, conservatives are indeed quite a loyal bunch. This means that they’re not willing to abandon a president during wartime and that they might consider speaking out against the war, or war policy, hurts the war effort, etc. This might cause many conservatives not to support Hagel.
Independent run? Will Hagel be able to run successfully as an Independent? Won’t Bloomberg have a better shot at that?
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