The Daou Report’s Peter Daou has a very special piece here exploring the power (or lack of it) of weblogs. It’s something that will be of interest to anyone intested in politics, of any party (or no party) and to bloggers of all persuasions in particular.
We’d ruin it by taking tidbits out of context so we’ll offer you a chunk from a couple of sections — and you should read the whole thing yourself:
After Kerry’s loss, lots of cyber-ink was spilled analyzing the role of the netroots in the 2004 election. There were legitimate questions. Was it wrong – or too idealistic – to think that the Democratic establishment and the online activist community could work together to win elections? Were the election post-mortems predicting the rise of the blogger class and the demise of the consultancy class correct? Would Kerry have won if the disharmony between the campaign and the netroots with respect to strategy and message had been addressed?
After a year of my life spent at the intersection of pre-blog and post-blog political thinking, and with Bush getting the second term he craved, one question has preoccupied me since last November: What is the scope of netroots power? Put differently: How influential are bloggers?
It’s a difficult question to answer. First, there’s no consensus on metrics. Second, blogs serve many purposes, some of which are more social than political. Third, the use of the Internet in political campaigns cuts across so many areas that it’s easy to confuse netroots influence in the communications and messaging realm with other Internet-based political applications such as organizing and fundraising. Fourth, ‘influence’ is a hazy term.
It might be easier to approach the question by setting a more specific, and admittedly somewhat arbitrary, definition of political influence: the capacity to alter or create conventional wisdom. And a working definition of “conventional wisdom� is a widely held belief on which most people act. Finally, by “people� I mean all Americans, regardless of ideology or political participation.
He explains his concept of “the triangle,” where issues are pushed into public perception, divisions and tensions within the Democratic part, and the different roles and challenges of right wing and left wing blogs. Then, towards the end, he brings recent events into the mix:
For rightwing bloggers who have fiercely defended one of the most controversial and polarizing presidents in our history, their fortunes will rise or fall with his approval ratings. The blind allegiance to Bush and the furious assault on his detractors will be vindicated if he leaves office with popular support.
Rightwing bloggers will thus do everything in their power to prevent another Katrina triangle, where the confluence of blogs, media, and Democratic leadership exposes the real Bush and shatters the conventional wisdom about his ability to lead. And they will struggle mightily to boost his poll numbers, whether it means ignoring the reality of the Iraq fiasco or the terrifying implications of the bungled federal response to Katrina.
For progressive bloggers who see a president presiding over the collapse of America’s credibility, the urgent work ahead is to cement the post-Katrina impression of Bush as a failed president. Whether or not they succeed depends to a large extent on their ability to compel the media and Democratic establishment to stand with them and speak the truth.
Of course, some will dispute the assertion that there is an impression of Bush as a failed president, despite nosediving poll numbers (and some continue to assert he performed just wonderfully during this crisis, even with the departure of former FEMA bigwig Michael Brown, Bush indicating all three levels of government could have done better and his taking responsibility for any federal problems). Meanwhile, others, such as TMV, have doubts about the longterm impact of blogs, except for the fact that some blogs are read by opinionshapers such as journalists.
But this is a piece that has food for thought for EVERYONE. It’s a must read.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.