Democrats and Republicans in the Senate are seemingly saying “We feel your pain” to both sides of the immigration issue as they get read to pass a compromise measure.
But will it actually become law? That depends on what happens in the House, which is far more problematical. The Washington Post:
Senate leaders announced Thursday that they have a deal on how to proceed next week with a sweeping measure to overhaul the nation’s immigration system.
The accord, if it holds, could pave the way for the Senate to pass a bill before the Memorial Day recess.
“This is one of the rare times that we’ve had to move forward on a bipartisan basis. The procedural aspects of this immigration debate are over with,” Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada said on the floor.
“It is important we finish this bill before the Memorial Day recess,” Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee said. “We’re going to stay on the bill until we complete it.”
Frist and Reid have agreed on the composition of a conference committee with the House, one of two sticking points that derailed the immigration bill before the Easter recess. Such a panel would be needed to reconcile differences between bills passed in the Senate and House. The Senate is poised to pass a bill that includes a new guest worker plan and a path to legalization for an estimated 12 million undocumented residents. The House passed a bill in December deals strictly with enforcement.
Many who have watched the debate closely remain skeptical that the two chambers can agree on a bill.
The AP notes that this may actually be bad news for the Democrats:
What changed was that after weeks of exchanging insults, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee and Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., agreed on a procedural compromise that gives the bill’s critics ample opportunity to offer amendments. It also offers assurances to Democrats that Senate negotiators will not simply capitulate to demands of House conservatives in talks on compromise legislation later in the year.
However briefly, nearly everyone seemed pleased.
“We congratulate the Senate on reaching agreement and we look forward to passage of a bill prior to Memorial Day,” said Dana Perino, deputy White House press secretary. Reid and Frist exchanged compliments on the Senate floor. Mexico’s foreign secretary said in a statement that the deal was a “positive step toward the approval of a migration accord.”
Everyone but House Republicans, many of whom criticize the Senate’s bill as an amnesty measure. And possibly House Democrats, who, ironically enough, seem to share the White House view of the political implications of immigration. They are eager to campaign against Republicans responsible for last year’s bill to make all illegal immigrants subject to felony charges.
The Democrats as a party yearn for on a national scale what happened to California’s then-Governor Pete Wilson who alienated Hispanic voters from the California Republican after backing a hard-line measure (that was later checkmated in court anyway). The California GOP has never recovered. And the Democrats had hoped to be able to use the overreaching of one segment of the GOP on this issue as a way to solidify their support among the important Hispanic voting bloc.
Most likely outcome: a Senate bill but perhaps compromise with the House is impossible. But a compromise Senate bill will make it harder for Democrats to press the case that all Republicans want to make illegal immigrants felons and go after anyone who helps them.
But the question is this: is the damage done with Hispanic voters? Or is that voting bloc not as monolithic as the conventional wisdom paints it to be?
And: if a compromise version emerges from the Senate and Bush & Company praise and back it, does that mean GOPers who don’t want any kind of resident status adjustment for those who are already here stay at home in November?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.