This state’s so Red it would take a surge to beat McCain. Jim Galloway:
Newly released figures from [Secretary of State Karen Handel’s] office show that 406,379 new voters registered between Jan. 1 to Sept. 30. Four years ago, the number was 371,932.
Overall, that’s a 9 percent increase from ’04 to ’08 — hardly surprising in a presidential race with no incumbent. Barack Obama or no Barack Obama.
That’s a 27 percent increase in new voter registration for African-Americans over ’04, and a 13.7 percent decrease in new voter registration for whites over ’04.
This is significant given that, overall, blacks make up 29 percent of Georgia’s 5.5 million voters. And it fits with the fact that, in the first days of early voting in Georgia, African-Americans have cast nearly 40 percent of the ballots.
See the month-by-month registration numbers for yourself here.
Yesterday Kos put out a new Research 2000 poll that confirms what Survey USA found last week: the race between Democrat Jim Martin and incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss is a dead heat. That’s a 15-point swing in just two weeks.
You might remember that when I was touting Democrat possibilities in Georgia last summer, it was Nate Silver who was saying no way, no how. Here’s Nate yesterday:
So suppose that by tonight, black voters have increased to 30 percent of Georgia’s registered voter pool. Plugging that 30 percent number in, McCain’s advantage is a mere 1 point.
Think these numbers sound unreasonable? Early voting is underway in Georgia, and according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, black voters do not represent 30 percent of Georgia’s early voter turnout. Instead, they represent almost 40 percent. Although early voting figures can be idiosyncratic , Barack Obama certainly seems to be having little trouble getting his vote out. Indeed, Barack Obama is winning Georgia right now.
Nate’s headline is: In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Participation May Make Big Difference. Speaking of small improvements… Dekalb County (Atlanta) is registering inmates:
The DeKalb sheriff’s office this week helped 376 jail inmates request absentee ballots and registered an additional 441 inmates so they can vote in the upcoming general election, Sheriff Thomas Brown said Friday.
Meanwhile, last Friday the AJC highlighted the voter purge problem in Georgia. State elections officials would not identify the voters whose names were removed nor say how many people were affected:
A study released by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law this week criticized voter roll purges in several states, including Georgia.
In Columbus, an official purged 700 people from the voter lists, according to the study, because they were ineligible to vote due to criminal convictions. The list included people who had never even received a parking ticket, the Brennan Center said.
Obama’s had a significant voter registration presence in Georgia since long before the primary. He ran ads here back in June. He’s done the groundwork. Dems here believe they have a real opportunity to win.