Jay Cost has an interesting analysis as to why John McCain is doing so badly in the polls and there is nothing that he can do about it. He notes:
McCain’s problem a week ago is the same as his problem today, enhanced anxiety about the economy. The deal failed to sooth any nerves, so McCain is still in a weakened position…So long as the newspapers and the televisions are full of stories about contraction, which as you can see dominated every day this week here in Pittsburgh, John McCain’s poll position will be weak. That’s all there is to it. Conservatives can criticize McCain for not doing this, that or the other; liberals can praise Obama for doing this, that, or the other. But the fact remains that, as of today, the state of the race is pretty simple: this was an even-steven contest until the markets started to sputter and people started really worrying about the economy. Now Obama’s up 6 points.
Cost notes that McCain’s downward slide and Obama’s rise is not about who is a better campaigner, as much as it is whose party is in power:
The average voter doesn’t understand the intricacies of economic policy. Heck, when you think about it, nobody really understands the economy. So, voters often rely on simple yet sensible metrics to make political decisions about the economy. One of them has been more or less operative since the election of 1840: if the economy tanks during a Republican administration, vote Democrat. If it tanks during a Democratic administration, vote Republican. Applying this rule to 2008, we get the following. McCain, because he is of the incumbent party, gets the political harm. Obama, because he is of the out party, gets the political benefit. That’s all there is to it.
I agree. If we had a President Gore and the economy were tanking, the public would vote for a Republican like Mitt Romney. Folks blame the party in power for economic conditions and hope the out party can make some changes. The public was angry at Carter during 1980 because of the economy and went for Reagan. The public thought Bush the Elder didn’t get it in 1992 and chose Clinton.
In these 24-hour, all-day news world that we live in, it’s hard to NOT escape such bad news and put hope in the new guy.
Of course, focusing on an aging radical and his ties to Senator Obama only help feed the view that McCain is out of touch with what is going on.
Cross-posted at the Square Deal