This was posted late last night. Due to its timeliness we put it higher up on the post list for today. There are NEWER posts underneath this so please scroll down when you finish reading it.
UN Security Council resolution 1701 which was approved by consensus in recent hours is likely to make it hard for Israel to launch another wide war in Lebanon if Hezbollah attacks it in the future.
The shooting will not stop until late August 13 because both Lebanon and Israel have yet to approve the resolution in their national cabinets. That will take at least 48 hours during which the fighting is likely to intensify as both Hezbollah and Israel try to improve their last minute military gains.
The resolution’s chief weakness is that it is approved under Chapter 6 of the UN Charter. That means the expanded UN peacekeeping force it envisages, called UNIFIL, is not explicitly authorized to shoot to kill or disarm Hezbollah fighters.
Regardless of the spin that Israel, the US and Britain put on this resolution in coming days, it holds only small advantages for Israel and is far from a victory. The chief advantage is that Israel continues to have the right to conduct riposte to any further aggressive acts by Hezbollah after the shooting stops.
Former US Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleberger said on Friday Israel may have acquiesced to Security Council intervention because the war may be less successful than Tel Aviv claims in its public statements. That is also the impression among Security Council diplomats and was a reason for the consensus. China and Russia joined the consensus because they feel the Hezbollah fought Israel to a draw and has discouraged Tel Aviv from resorting to similar wide wars in the future.
Other advantages for Israel are that the resolution asks Hezbollah to stop all attacks immediately while telling Israel to cease “all offensive military operations� without ruling out defensive operations. It also calls for “the unconditional release of the abducted Israeli soldiers� while saying only that efforts should be made to settle the issue of the hundreds of Lebanese prisoners detained in Israel.
Another advantage is that it says the area between the Blue Line and the Litani river in southern Lebanon should be made “free of any armed personnel and weapons other than those of the Lebanese armed forces and UNIFIL�. Thus, Israel gets the buffer zone it wanted without having conquered that entire territory.
However, all of these advantages have a sting in the tail. The buffer zone will contain 15,000 Lebanese soldiers and a UNIFIL expanded from 2,000 to 15,000 soldiers, probably including many French and Turkish soldiers. That will make it very hard to launch another war as wide as this one in riposte for any further act of Hezbollah aggression. Israel may find it is trapped by the terms of this resolution in the future.
Another problem is that the resolution again leaves to Lebanon the responsibilities of making the south both weapons free and free of aggression started by Hezbollah. At the same time, it gives the Lebanese government no new means with real teeth to disarm Hezbollah or to expand authority over all of Lebanon. It merely repeats earlier ineffective calls and does nothing to initiate changes in Lebanon’s political landscape.
UN troops present in the buffer zone will not be able to prevent or even police Hezbollah to prevent it from building new networks with civilians who support its goals. Its political goal of destroying Israel is not affected in any way. The troops will merely separate the two warring sides for as long as shooting does not start again. Then, if either side does not hesitate to kill UN troops as collateral damage a new war would begin while those troops scurry to be evacuated as foreigners.
In summary, failing new developments on the ground to end Hezbollah’s military capabilities this resolution is unlikely to win Israel more than just a breathing space. If a new war starts with Hezbollah, Israel will face very difficult decisions about turning French, Turkish and Lebanese peacekeepers into collateral damage.