I’ll warn you in advance. This column is lengthy but necessarily so. This year is shaping up to be quite complicated and no longer do developments occur in drips and drabs. The fight for control of the House is reaching a fever pitch that finds more races on the board since 2010, a year that just happened to unleash a political tsunami against Democrats that the party this year has every expectation of reversing.
The recent victory of Democrat Conor Lamb in a Pennsylvania Congressional district that voted for President Trump by twenty points has richoted Democratic hopes that their takeover of the House of Representatives is now firmly in reach.
Flipping the House means Democrats must capture 23 GOP held seats to hand a Democrat the gavel. While that may seem like a dicey number, recent history suggests that is not a spectacularly drastic scenario. Twice in the last quarter of a century – in 1994 and 2010, Republicans overcame far more intimidating margins to wipe out 52 and 63 held seats from the other side respectively and Democrats picked up 30 seats – double what they needed to retake control in 2006.
There are now 24 Republicans who represent districts that voted for Hillary Clinton which, at this point, happens to be exactly one more than Democrats take the House. In this environment, that’s scary enough for the majority party but there’s another statistic that should be far more sobering. Congressional districts across the nation held by Republicans throughoutthe nation voted for Trump by margins smaller than Pennsylvania-18 – and that should have GOP incumbents quaking in their boots from coast to coast
Now, Republicans aren’t going to lose 97 House seats – Democrats won’t contest every one and they certainly don’t have Conor Lamb’s in every district. Plus, it’s unlikely that Republicans will tap standard bearer’s as inept as Rick Saccone to carry their banner. But, with the kind of headwinds that are blowing, they might not need to. The boundless energy within the grassroots of the party, the mobilization by Democratic interest groups and the disillusionment over the president’s efforts on immigration, repealing Obamacare, women’s rights and the president himself have been giving a new meaning to the term backlash. And for that reason, a Democratic House is all but assured. While the final number of seats they end up with will be impossible to call even up until the first batch of polls are closing much less seven months away but, if last November’s Virginia results and Pennsylvania-18 are to be extrapolated, the final number of Democratic Congresspeople replacing Republicans will be a minimum of 35, with the possibility of tapering off at around 60.
One problem Republicans are faced with are open seats, many of which are in hostile territory. A while back, Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report asked a question in which yours truly was recognized for getting the actual result: the last time an open seat in a district won by the opposing party’s last candidate for president stuck with that party in the next midterm. The answer: Jim Nussle, who held fellow Republican Tom Tauke’s seat in 1990. Worth noting: Nussle’s margin was a mere 1,600 votes and was almost certainly due to a late-breaking scandal of his Democratic opponent. That is a statistic that has to be discomforting even to Republicans such as Dino Rossi who at this point, seems favored to hold a seat left open by Dave Reichert in a Hillary district that is otherwise fairly Republican. What should give Republicans the jitters is that in the few polls taht have been published, Rossi’s lead is increasingly tenuous – and there are many other open Hillary seats with Republican Congressmembers that are even more precarious.
That is where we begin as we look at the lay of the land.
To be sure, Democrats are not without problems of their own. Two Minnesota Democrats in rural, Trump districts are leaving their seats behind and Republicans are playing serious offense to inoculate against losses elsewhere. By the way, this is a similar to Georgia in 2006 when a mid-decade redistricting rendered two Democratic districts nearly unwinnable when they were holding everything else around the nation without much trouble. The party did overcome the adversity in Georgia and the Minnesota seats, while troublesome, are of totally different dynamics at the local level than the presidential race and may well be salvaged by experienced candidates who have proven they know how to get voters to split their tickets.
Democrats do have slight worries than the GOP in more unlikely territory – vacant seats in Connecticut and New Hampshire – districts that fall into the more conservative end of New England if that’s possible. But Connecticut-5 turned to a young upstart named Chris Murphy over a 12-term veteran Nancy Johnson in 2006 and quite candidly, the only worry Democrats would have about losing New Hampshire-1 in these times would be if Levi Sanders emerges the nominee.
With that, let’s examine the gravy train for Democrats.
Pennsylvania already promised to become a focal point for Democratic gains but a recent state Supreme Court decision which found Republicans guilty of excessive gerrymandering in the map they drew in 2012 invalidated that. The map ultimately sent thirteen Republicans and just five Democrats to Washington and remained that way until Lamb’s improbable victory last month. A local Republican campaign consultant predicted “gobs of money” would be spent in the Keystone State but it might not matter: Democrats seem all but certain of winning three seats, have a fourth within reach and a fifth that in this climate, no amount of money can dictate. A sixth may fall as well (read on).
While no one can say with definitive certainty, it has become increasingly obvious to most prognosticators that twelve GOP held
seats are reasonably close to flipping. They are: Arizona-2 (Martha McSally is running for the Senate), California-25 (Steve Knight is seeking re-election), Florida-27 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is retiring), Iowa-1 (incumbent Rod Blum running again), Kansas-3 (incumbent Kevin Yoder is going for another term),New Jersey-2 (Frank LoBiondo is retiring), New Jersey-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen is retiring), New York-22 (incumbent Claudia Tenney is standing for re-election), Pennsylvania-6 (Ryan Costello is retiring), Pennsylvania-7 (Pat Meehan is retiting), Pennsylvania-15 (Charlie Dent is retiring) and Virginia-10 (Barbara Comstock is running again).
Iowa’s Rod Blum surprised many by capturing a second term in 2016 but is now a decisive underdog in a year that the Trump headwinds in the Hawkeye State have reversed-and-then-some
Additionally, I would put Kansas-2 which Lynn Jenkins is vacating in that category as well. Likely Democratic nominee Paul Davis indicated right off the bat that he would not back Nancy Pelosi for Speaker and the district backed him even as he fell short in his 2014 bid to unseat Governor Sam Brownback. In Minnesota-2, freshman Congressman Jason Lewis scraped by Angie Craig with a percentage point to spare as Trump was carrying the district by that same margin. But Lewis, a former radio host, is at the more conservative end of the spectrum and will be hard pressed to survive this one. Democrats also have an unusually strong chance to oust Congresswoman Mimi Walters in California-45, an Orange County district that as recently as four years ago was lopsidedly Republican but which, being socially moderate, swung to Clinton. For those keeping score, that would be Republicans plus 15.
It is after where things get dicey.
The next-batch of excellent opportunities involve a trio of California House races where Democratic takeovers would normally be near-guaranteed in an environment like this but, are hampered by a system that requires the top-two candidates to advance to the general election regardless of party.
Three fertilely Republican seats that Clinton carried have multiple candidates on both sides but Democrats are rightfully worried about getting shut-out. The seats of retiring Congressmen Darrell Issa and Ed Royce (California-39 and 49) would be favored to flip, as would the Huntington Beach area seat of Dana Rohrabacher (California-45) who is seeking re-election but who has been tarred as Vladimir Putin’s favorite Congressman (the two once arm wrestled). Most analysts don’t envision a shut-out in all three districts, but are most concerned about the Issa seat where a cacophonous Democratic field is in the race (the Royce district has a cluster as well but Gil Cisneros seems to be a slight frontrunner). If a Democrat advances to November, the doors would be wide open for new Congressmen to walk through.
Then we get into districts that are reruns in that the Republican incumbents being tested have exchanged fire with strong Democrats before – if not frequently, and came out on the winning end.
Mike Coffman, who represents Colorado-6, is the embodiment of how that could change. He has nine lives but may well have used it up. Democrats have thrown everything they have at him but either had the right candidates in the wrong years or vice-versa. Coffman has tried to moderate his voting record but, with Trump in the White House, may have a bridge too far.
Will this be the year that Mike Coffman’s winning streaks in a swing district comes to an end? Democrats think it might.
Ditto for Brian Fitzpatrick in what is the new PA-1 (now PA-8). The Fitzpatrick name is very well-respected in Bucks County (Brian replaced his brother Mike and has one of the most centrist records among Republicans in the House). But the district twice was nearly dead-even at the Presidential level and the new map made it just shy of two points bluer.
In Texas-23, sophomore Will Hurd again battled the man he defeated in 2014, Pete Gallego to a draw two years later and has sought to steer a middle ground on key areas, such as immigration. Hurd’s background in the CIA has often landed him on the national circuit but as other races have shown, it will take very little energy on the part of Democrats to reverse narrow victories.
In Utah-4, another two-termer, Mia Love increased her 2016 margin from her initial win in ’14 but Democrats have rallied behind a heavyweight contender, Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams and while polls show Love ahead, it’s not by much and the undecided are many. At this point, I’d bet my house on a takeover though not necessarily my life.
Love can only go so far against energized opposition
An actual rematch appears on tap in Nebraska-2, an Omaha centered district where Don Bacon edged out freshman Brad Ashford in 2016. Ashford is hoping to return the favor. He has a primary but the district that was solidly Republican in the past only gave a two point margin to Trump, which makes this one very much in the air.
Others in trouble: Bruce Poliquin of Maine has become battle-tested as of late, initially winning a rural Obama district that swung hard to Trump in 2016. But these are perilous times and while Democrats are dealing with a hotly contested primary, I’d rather be the eventual nominee than Poliquin. Carlos Curbelo in South Florida holds among the most Clinton-friendly GOP seats and did himself few favors here when he voted for the Obamacare repeal. And in California-10, Jeff Denham has beaten beekeeper Mike Eggman twice, albeit with just 52% in 2016. Eggman is back but has a contested primary. But while poor turnout often hampers Democrats efforts to make inroads, Denham is playing serious defense. Another battle tested California veteran is David Valadao and a loss for him is certainly possible as well but, the 21st Congressional district in which he sits has a history of producing among the lowest turnout in the nation.
Other ancestrally Republican areas are more difficult to predict. Two seats in Texas – one in North Dallas and the other in Houston, shocked many by giving Clinton pluralities over Trump. But each district had given Romney nearly 60% and have consistently re-elected Congressmen Pete Sessions and John Culberson respectively. The recent primary revealed Democrats to not only be as equally energized as their GOP counterparts – a real letdown for these parts, but that the gentrification is helping all the more. The same goes for Illinois-6 held by Peter Roskam and New Jersey-7 held by Leonard Lance. Erik Paulsen’s Minnesota-3 is more historically Republican at the local level but is a microcosm of the districts where Republican fortunes have soured. The fate of these members may be determined by how bad things are come Election Day.
If Democrats mange to unseat Rules Committee Chair Pete Sessions, the remaining Republicans holding seats carried by Hillary Clinton could probably meet in a phone booth
In two Michigan races, who knows? Neither Michigan-8 and 11 backed Clinton but in the four candidate race, literally half the electorates preferred someone other than Trump (the president drew just 49% in 11). Both cover the heart of suburbia but are chok full of Republicans at the local level. Still, many Republicans seem to think 11, where incumbent Dave Trott is retiring, will flip in the end. Bishop is running again but tacticly acknowledged the tightrope he must walk in part this week by removing mention of his “A+” rating from the NRA and his support for “Right to Work” laws. Bishop may have a slight edge at this point but a loss could not be considered an upset. Two other seats in the Wolverine State – Michigan-1 (Jack Bergman) and Michigan-7 (Tim Walberg)have been trending the opposite direction but Democrats feel their chances of a turnover are at least even.
Southern Illinois also has two seats that may get a House cleaning – Illinois 12 and 13 respectively. Ironically, both primarily rural districts were drawn to be Democratic vote-sinks followig the Democrats aggressive 2012 gerrymander but were thwarted by the collapse of the Democratic Party among rural areas and the rise of Trump. But on its face – the contracting of those factors coupled with two strong Democratic candidates – Brandon Kelly and Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, appear to be giving Democrats solid opportunities to knock off Republicans Mike Bost and Rodney Davis in the Land of Lincoln.
A seat that hasn’t received much press is Arkansas-2 which Trump “only” took by ten percent but one where Democrats have fielded a strong contender. One wrench in the Democrats plans is a Des Moines based House seat where the Democratic favorite to take on Republican David Young in a quintessential swing district was forced to abandon her campaign for a lack of sufficient signatures. But Young is by no means out of the woods as a number of issues – most recently the tariff, may put him even more on the defensive than he is now.
Democrats also stand a surprisingly strong chance at flipping a seat that in the last decade has moved right faster than virtually any other: West Virginia-3 where a combination of a strong, well-known Democrat and 2016 Trump voter is keeping local Republicans up at night.Expect Republicans to charge State Senator Richard Ojeda wit being a Pelosi backer which frankly, would seem to be the only thing that could hold him back. By the same token, if this seat falls, there is no scenario for the House to be salvaged.
Now we turn to the “reach” districts which in a year like this might not be as big a reach as some think. And for that, the possibilities are endless.
Virginia-7 held by Dave Brat, a Tea-Party darling who gained fame when he shocked House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 primary, but who also has a reputation, as one Virginia politico called him, as “an unattractive personality.” Democrats do have a primary between two very attractive candidates and suburban growth has changed the area from the hard-right territory it boasted of being even five years ago, a fact evidenced by Democrats running well in the General Assembly races in this area last year.
Democrats – and undoubtedly some Republicans, would like to beat arch-conservative Dave Brat. The dynamics of the year make it possible that it could happen but its further down the list
North Carolina-13 is a similar district. Ted Budd had little political experience before he won a seat in 2016 and Democrats are hoping that being a gun shop owner will cause him more peril than the ideological niche he has cared out. The district is Republican but is to the right of any district in the state that Trump carried and his likely opponent, Kathy Manning, already has amassed an impressive list of endorsements.
Likewise, Budd’s suburban Charlotte colleague Robert Pittenger holds a district Democrats would not have targeted years ago but Pittenger’s legal problems and the mood leaves Democrats hopeful that they can make headway – if Pittenger even survives his primary. North Carolina is an “orphan” state which means there are no statewide races that would normally draw more voters to vote. But Democrats are hopeful that the energy and mood among their base will bring out and sway the people they need.
Some may hope the energy extends just south as Mark Sanford had a fairly close call in his ’16 primary. It’s not uncommon for Democrats to come close – incumbent Henry Brown nearly lost the seat in 2008 and Sanford himself struggled to beat Steve Colbert’s sister in a 2013 special in which he invoked Nancy Pelosi. But things are different now and even as a former governor, Sanford has never been viewed as a particularly attentive which makes it all the more uncertain that Sanford can even make it through his primary let alone November.
In New Jersey, Tom MacArthur was the only Republican to vote for both the Trump tax bill (which critics say would disproportionately hurt blue states) and the Obamacare repeal which he had a hand in shaping. Democrat Andy Kim’s challenge will be to win Burlington County by a big enough margin to offset MacArthur’s likely win in deep red Ocean County –or at least to hold down his margin there. But he is increasingly raising the money and visibility to do so.
Scott Perry is a Freedom Caucus member who is seen as another ideologue. His district lost heavy Republican enclaves in the recent remap which reduced the Trump edge over Clinton drastically – to just about ten points and it is not clear Perry has the skills (or the chops for raising the money) to appeal to voters who depart from that orthodoxy. The top Democratic candidate meanwhile, Christina Hartman, was forced to abandon her plans to seek the seat following a signature issue but the party has another able person who has demonstrated funding ability, epidemiologist Eric Ding. This will be a classic case for how deep the grass roots can penetrate.
Ohio Republicans have tried to make Steve Chabot’s First Congressional District less marginal and more Republican twice in a row but Chabot’s supposed new position of strength didn’t prevent him from losing the seat in 2008 (he won it back two years later. The 2012 incarnation replaced some of downtown Cincinnati with blood-red Warren County (Warren saved Chabot’s then colleague, Jean Schmidt in her two unexpected cliffhanger races in the mid-2000s. Democrats are raving about Hamilton County Clerk Aftab Pureval who entered the race little more than two months ago but has already raised $600,000.
Not too far away, Andy Barr has held Kentucky-6 with ease since stunning incumbent Ben Chandler in 2016 but, the district rejected Rand Paul in 2016 as he was winning re-election statewide and his opponent, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, is running in this seat. Kentucky is another orphan state and Gray is in a fiercely contested primary with Iraq/Afghanistan veteran Amy McGrath who was already in the race when Gray entered (and expressed her displeasure in unusually personal terms) but, whoever emerges will have a strong chance. It just won’t be known until very early on election night as the Bluegrass State’s poll closing times are the earliest in the nation.
Other incumbents to keep an eye on: Scott Tipton of Colorado, Randy Hultgren in Illinois, Greg “Slugger” Gianforte of Montana (he shoved a reporter during the last campaign), David Joyce of Ohio, Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania, Ralph Norman of South Carolina, Jamie Herrera-Beutler of Washington and Alex Mooney of West Virginia. Another: Dave Schweikert of Arizona and a loss by the this intransigent lawmaker would probably make House leadership’s day). Florida’s Vern Buchanan, who has held a Sarasota district for a dozen years, watched his son lose an election for a fairly GOP leaning State House seat earlier in the year and Buchanan has found himself the target of ethical investigations. Lastly, Michigan’s Fred Upton could find himself with “Leach Syndrome.” Jim Leach was an Iowa Congressman and former Banking Committee chair who hardly ever broke a sweat in his re-election bids throughout his 30-year tenure. That came to an end in 2006 when he was blindsided by an unknown. Upton is a former committee chair who has served 32 years and has frequently been the subject of retirement rumors. Let’s just say the change movement in wave years has also led to involuntary retirements.
A defeat by any of these individuals at this point can’t be projected or even expected but if ever there was a year that it could materialize, this would be it.
There are also several potentially at-risk seats in Wisconsin. In a recent election for a state Supreme Court seat, the Democratic candidate carried Wisconsin-8 and appears to have lost Wisconsin-7 by a margin of 50.1-49.%. She garnered 48% in Wisconsin-6 but incumbent Glen Grothman’s bigger problem is his shoot from the hip nature and the fact that Dan Kohl, nephew of ex-Senator Herb Kohl has entered the race armed with money.
Waves always produce “giant-killers” – in some cases multiple towering figures who can’t keep up with the change. This year, keep an eye on House Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Intelligence Chair Devin Nunes, and the biggest fish of all, Paul Ryan. The former seems to realize she has a fight on her hands, the middle will not be easy the and, neither will the Speaker for that matter. But his district, while unmistakably Republican, is not monlithically so by any means and his opponent, Randy Bryce, has been raising a boatload of cash.
The most unpredictable state is New York. A number of the eight GOP held seats are marginal but, aside from Tenney’s district, most are not predictable. In 2006, Democrats did gain three seats (including the district Tenney represents) and fell just shy of three others – two of which they took in ’08 along with a Staten Island seat). How history repeats itself. Democrats lack candidates with sterling credentials but my guess is the Empire State gives Democrats at least another seat or two (Lee Zeldin in Suffolk County and John Faso are the two likeliest).
By the way, one of the seats that should normally be super vulnerable in an environment like this is Pete King’s of New York. King is about as entrenched as they come and has built up much goodwill from Ds and Rs alike. His district was trending Democratic before Trump won it by nine. If the environment stays this toxic, King may be the only Republican who has what it takes to hold it but, there’s a teeny chance he might not. And that prospect had to scare the bejesus out of every other Republican on the ballot. For that occurring would mean that the party nationally will not just be getting killed but are the victims of mass murder.