For awhile, there has been speculation about the deteriorating health of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. As the country’s highest political authority, his death will have major implications for Iran. Indeed, the succession of a new leader will largely determine the direction that Iran will take in the upcoming decades, both in its stance towards the international community and on domestic issues such as economic and political freedom.
Thankfully, if Khamenei passes away, it’s far from clear that another hard-line conservative will be elected to take his place.
There are two reasons for this.
CLERICAL DISILLUSIONMENT:
First, amongst the Shia clergy, there is a strong sentiment that Khamenei should be replaced by someone far more moderate, or that his powerful position should be abolished entirely. In Qom, the major center of Shia learning in Iran, a number of senior religious clerics believe that religion and politics do not coincide. They argue that Khamenei, by playing such a major role in Iran’s political life, has overstepped his authority as a religious leader.
Indeed, for the Iranian government to even have the position of a ‘supreme leader’ arrogantly suggests that this figure somehow speaks for God. Only a strict separation of Islam and politics, these clerics believe, upholds that which is written in the Koran. Interestingly, although rarely covered in the Western press, many Shia clerics have been saying this since the 1979 revolution. Now, with rumors about Khamenei’s health, many of these clerics are again deciding to speak up to call for a more moderate figure, or to suggest that the post should be gotten rid of entirely. (Outside of Iran, I should note, other Shia leaders hold this view as well. Iraq’s Ayatollah Sistani, for instance, believes that politics and Islam are not compatible and should be relegated to different realms.)
CITIZEN FRUSTRATION:
Second, with popular support for the Iranian regime at all-time lows, there is concern amongst government leaders that unless they make some major changes, the religious regime’s days are numbered. Their concerns are well-placed. Polls have suggested that upwards of 60 or 70% of the Iranian populace wants to see a more democratic, and liberal, Iran. Many Iranians are frustrated with the direction of the religious regime and believe that its style of governance is antiquated and unrepresentative of the will of the people.
Some government leaders, although unwilling to bring an end to clerical rule, are reasoning that selecting a more moderate supreme leader will go a long way towards assuaging the doubts of the Iranian people. Ayatollah Rafsanjani (discussed below) is one of those figures.
AN INTENSIFYING DEBATE:
Now, with the death of Ali Akbar Faiz Meshkini, this debate has again come to the forefront. Meshkini, who led the Assembly of Experts (an important government body that monitors and elects Iran’s supreme leader), was the ideological heir to Khamenei. A long-term conservative cleric, he was likely to appoint someone with similar hard-line credentials, thereby maintaining the status quo. But, with Meshkini no longer on the scene, more moderate members of the Assembly of Experts have begun jockeying for position.
At the forefront of this struggle is Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president who has argued for a more conciliatory posture towards the West. If Rafsanjani ascends to the leadership role in the committee, he is likely to push for a more moderate leader once Khamenei dies. Increasingly, however, there are questions about whether or not Rafsanjani (if he becomes the head of the Assembly) will merely nominate a more moderate figure or whether he will abolish the position of ‘supreme leader’ entirely.
Of course, this may be jumping the gun. Khamenei is still alive, and it is far from clear that he will be passing away anytime soon. That being said, Rafsanjani and other Shia clerics clearly believe that his death is not far down the line, and they are (as we speak) trying to position themselves to take full advantage of the situation when it does finally occur.
This will be something to watch. What happens to the supreme leader, and who his successor is (or, for that matter, whether or not one is appointed to replace him), will have a tremendous impact on the country and on the region.
(Originally posted at Foreign Policy Watch)