The fallouts of the alleged Iranian attempt to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington will heighten Middle East tensions, even as pressure grows on Israelis and Palestinians to sit again at the peace table.
If the allegations turn out to be true, the Saudi’s will put intense pressure on the Obama administration for exemplary and swift action. The risk is that the White House might, against its better judgment, find itself in the middle of a centuries-old violent struggle between the Saudi Sunnis and Shia Iran. This is a dangerous hate-filled quicksand for the leader of all world democracies.
The plot to kill Ambassador Adel Al-Jubeir in Washington is a serendipitous gift fallen into the Saudi lap in its struggle against Teheran for influence over the world of Islam. Teheran is already denouncing the plot as a conspiracy perpetrated to force the US government to discontinue backdoor discussions and, perhaps, attack Iran or allow Israel to attack.
The military attack scenario seems unlikely but if the plot is true, the administration will be forced to seek more severe international sanctions against Teheran. Most likely, it will find support for them in the UN Security Council. If the allegations turn out to be a conspiracy, American law enforcement will have to eat much humble pie.
But the matter will not stop there. In either event, Iran will not bow to Saudi pressure because this is not a matter of international politics or containing terrorism. It is an early sign of a new struggle between the retrograde version of Sunni Islam promoted by Saudi Arabia and the medieval version of Shia Islam propagated by Iran’s theocrats.
The nature of the danger to the US is quite different when it stands against Iran to prevent nuclear weapons and weaken a regime that denies the Holocaust and Israel’s right to exist. In this confrontation, most of the world is on the side of Israel and nobody wants a nuclear Iran.
In any case, Teheran will not ratchet up this confrontation. The Mullahs do not see it, including current economic sanctions, as a severe threat to their survival. In turn, they are using equivocation over the nuclear weapons program as provocation to win brownie points with the disgruntled streets of most Arab countries. They continue provocation in the hope that most Arabs will look up to them for standing against the US and Israel, which are widely feared and distrusted.
Iran has already made gains on Arab streets. If this grows, ordinary Arabs, who are overwhelmingly Sunnis, may start to turn away from the Sunni-Shia schism. That might allow Teheran’s Mullahs to win acceptance as leaders of Islam in parallel with the Saudi claim to being Islam’s guardian because it possesses Mecca. Thus, Shia Islam, which many Sunnis brand as apostate, would gain legitimacy for all Muslims after nearly 1600 years of rupture and conflict.
Iran deserves to be blocked where Israel and nuclear weapons are concerned but getting in the middle of the deep Saudi hatred for Iran is another matter. The dominant Salafi and Wahhabi religious establishments in Saudi Arabia are fundamentalist Sunni Muslims who viscerally hate Shia Islam. Since the Arab Spring began earlier this year, the Saudi’s fear that Teheran is fomenting trouble among the Saudi Shia minority and the Shia majority in Bahrain to overthrow Sunni-dominated regimes in the Gulf.
The Saudis are already disturbed that America’s Iraq war has paved the way for a Shia-dominated government in Baghdad and increased Iranian influence. They are nervous because Shia uprisings in Saudi Arabia would directly threaten the Royal family and Sheikhs. So far, Shias governed only in Iran and a small Shia-oriented Alawi sect ruled in Syria through the Assad family. But the Alawites are not influential in Islam since Shia religious leaders in Iran and Iraq reject them as heretics.
The top point on the Saudi religious and royal leadership agenda is to break Iran’s influence as a revolutionary nation. They are alarmed that many Sunni Arabs admire Iran for resisting the US and Israel and giving determined support to Palestinians. However, they also realize they cannot bring intolerable pressure on Iran without US help. So in coming days they will work all their levers in Washington. But the US should tread very carefully to avoid sliding into the growing and violent power struggle between Sunni and Shia Islam.
UPDATE: In case you missed this breaking story, The Mail has a good summary. Here’s part of it:
The United States said it will hold Iran to account after it foiled a planned ‘significant terrorist act’ by agents of the Iranian government to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. in Washington DC.
Terror plotters wanted to kill Adel Al-Jubeir by bombing a restaurant, before setting off blasts at the Saudi and Israeli embassies in the city, it was revealed.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the plot ‘crosses a line’ in Iran’s state sponsorship of terrorism and will further isolate the Islamic republic.
Two men allegedly working for ‘factions of the Iranian government’ have been charged with the $1.5 million plot.
Asked about the potential loss of innocent life in the bombings, he replied, ‘They want that guy done. If the hundred go with him, f**k ’em,’ court papers reported.
He is now said to be facing life in prison if convicted.
One suspect was working for the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard. It is unclear if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was aware of the plot
One suspect was working for the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard. It is unclear if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was aware of the plot
Gholam Shakuri, whom authorities said was a member of the Quds Force, a branch of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was also charged but is still at large.
Arbabsiar has allegedly offered $1.5 million bounty to a Mexican drug cartel for help with the assassination.
A third man named Abdul-Reza Shahlai is accused of coordinating the alleged plot.
Shahlai, an Iranian official who is Arbabsiar’s cousin, has previously been accused of plotting an attack in Iraq which killed five U.S. soldiers.
Attorney General Eric Holder said that the plot to kill the Saudi ambassador and bomb embassies was a flagrant violation of U.S. and international law and that the U.S. would hold Iran accountable.
Mr Holder added that the suspects expressed ‘utter disregard for collateral damage’ in the planned bombings on U.S. soil.
FBI Director Robert Mueller said many lives could have been lost in the plot.
Go to the link to read more of their report.