If you were asked who won the recent round of elections in Lebanon the boiled down answer would be: Syria.
The reason: a political upset and the triumphant return of a politically crafty former army general:
A former army general who returned to Lebanon last month after 15 years in exile appeared headed for a sweeping victory in the third round of legislative elections Sunday as anti-Syrian candidates braced for significant losses.
Preliminary results from voting in mountain regions and coastal areas around Beirut and in the central Bekaa Valley indicated that Michel Aoun and most if not all of his allies would emerge as winners in voting for nearly half the 128-seat national legislature. Final results were not expected until Monday.
The Washington Post notes that his victory now makes it more unlikely that opposition politicos can form a majority and wrench the country further away from Syrian influence. The northern part of the country votes next Sunday — but it isn’t looking good so far for those who wanted to boot Syria completely out of their country’s corridors of power.
Reuters calls Aoun’s victory “stunning” since it happened just weeks after he returned from exile. And it notes:
The polls, being held over four weekends ending on June 19, are the first for three decades without the presence of Syrian troops and are set to usher in an assembly with an anti-Syrian majority for the first time since the 1975-1990 civil war.
But Aoun’s victory could complicate the new political landscape in highly factionalised Lebanon as it boosts the chances of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud staying in power. Aoun has questioned opposition demands for Lahoud to go.
Though staunchly anti-Syrian, since returning from exile Aoun has fallen out with the established opposition forces with which he sided in the drive to force Syria out. He accuses many of its key figures of corruption and of dealing with the Syrians since the civil war.
Aoun’s supporters say his exile kept him untainted by years of corruption among Lebanese politicians while Syria held sway, and accuse his rivals of trying to contain his influence.
The BBC has a must-read profile of Aoun that explains he is no political lightweight, to be sure:
His triumphalist homecoming at the start of May after a 14-year exile in France came with the tacit blessing of Lebanon’s Druze, Muslim and Christian factions.
They felt that Mr Aoun, 70, a lifelong opponent of Syrian influence in Lebanon, could help unify the emerging anti-Syrian coalition and close the book on Damascus’ long domination of its much smaller, war-torn neighbour.
Amid riotous celebration and grand rhetoric, Mr Aoun, a former army commander commonly known as “the general”, called for an end to sectarianism and division in Lebanon, for an end to corruption and for a new start for the nation.
Yet within weeks Mr Aoun had split from the rump of the anti-Syria bloc, allying his Free Patriotic Movement with some pro-Syrian elements in Lebanon’s Christian heartlands.
Some see the move as a canny political manoeuvre, jockeying for a presidential bid if pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud should lose his grip on power.
His move and subsequent electoral success has infuriated Druze leader and old rival Walid Jumblatt, who has accused Mr Aoun of being little more than a Syrian stooge.
The fat lady has not yet sung in Lebanon…
MORE READINGS:
Key facts about Aoun
Old War Rivals Take Battle to Lebanon Polls
Chronology of recent events in Lebanon
The Country and People of Lebanon
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.