President Barack Obama’s policies in Syria took another small hit from Russia at negotiations in Geneva although Secretary John Kerry announced a possibly week-long cease fire among the main warring parties starting Monday, September 12.
Secretary of State John Kerry tried to place an optimistic spin on mostly fruitless talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, Hangzhou and Geneva.
Russia’s chief gain on Friday was a US willingness to join the Russians to fight the Islamic State and the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front.
Syria’s Bashar al Assad also made a small gain by getting Kerry’s apparent acquiescence to zones where Syrian warplanes will be allowed to continue dropping bombs and sending tanks.
In effect, agreeing to this arrangement costs nothing to Russia and Assad. They can continue as before if the ceasefire does not take hold.
On the main agreement, Kerry said, “Today, the US and Russia are announcing a plan which we hope will reduce violence, ease suffering, and resume movement towards a negotiated peace and a political transition in Syria.”
“And we believe that the plan as it is set forth – if implemented, if followed – has the ability to provide a turning point, a moment of change.”
But UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura, was circumspect. He is the vital partner in Syria for humanitarian aid deliveries and eventual peace negotiations.
He called the new plan “a real window of opportunity” but was unable to mask his frustration.
The UN “expects that all parties will facilitate UN efforts to indeed deliver humanitarian assistance to the population in need, including in besieged and hard-to-reach areas,” he warned. “It is vital that the real change is felt on the ground by the Syrian people”
But Mistura did not sound hopeful about that “real change”. For its part, the UN is ready “to deliver and to do whatever it can” for a cessation of hostilities.
Lavrov saw a small diplomatic victory in Kerry’s acquiescence to fighting together with Russia against the IS and Nusra.
Kerry said clearly, “Now, once it is established after seven continuous days of adherence to the cessation of hostilities and increased humanitarian access, then U.S. and Russian experts will work together to defeat Daesh (IS) and Nusra.”
He took pains to emphasize that this was not a concession to Russia and tried to hedge it with the cease fire provisions. But Lavrov “greatly welcomed” the clearer American position.
“A lot of people supposed that the US are really not very desirable to fight with Nusra; they are just keeping Nusra as Plan B for overthrowing of the (Assad) regime,” Lavrov asserted.
“And I’m very glad that John said a very important thing. He said that the U.S. is firmly aimed to fight Nusra and those who believe that the fighting with Nusra is a concession to Russia are wrong.”
Apart from this, the new plan has serious holes because Kerry and Lavrov continue to pursue different purposes.
Kerry’s main goal seems to be to stop the Syrian regime from bombing rebel forces supplied and supported by the US. In the meantime, the Islamic State and Nusra Front could remain unmolested.
“First, we agreed on the steps through which the regime will come to a place where it will not fly combat missions anywhere where the opposition is present in an area that we have agreed on with very real specificity,” Kerry said.
This notion is the core gain for Assad because he could interpret it to mean that he has free reign to bomb everywhere else, which could be most of the country.
For his part, Lavrov has long used the argument that ousting Nusra and other radical fighters from among US-backed rebels is impossible. Therefore, Syrian and Russian planes cannot avoid bombing the US backed rebels.
So far, the US has been reluctant to clearly identify the zones where only US-backed rebels operate because of fear that the Russians will destroy them more accurately since their defeat is central for the Bashar al Assad regime’s survival.
There is zero trust between the Russia and America and even less between Assad’s militias and US-backed militias.
So the chances are remote that the Pentagon will suddenly trust Russia and Assad enough to hand over geographic coordinates that could allow Russian planes to wipe out Assad’s American-backed opponents.
Kerry’s hope that suddenly such distrustful warring parties will lay down arms for as much as a week primarily to facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries seems optimistic.
Lavrov did not contradict Kerry but noted that there were “a lot of stakeholders involved in this puzzle and there are quite opposite interests of a whole number of them.”
Pointing to “the deep lack of confidence and trust between Russia and American partners,” he added, “As far as the implementation of this arrangement is concerned, no one can give 100 percent guarantees”.
Kerry placed most of the onus on Assad for making today’s agreement work. “We would need seven days of adherence to the cessation of hostilities in order to convince the people of Syria and the opposition that the actions of the regime and its supporters will be consistent with the words that we put on paper,” he asserted.
The US-backed Syrian opposition is refusing to attend further talks on a political settlement or anything else until Syria stops attacks to dislodge it from territories it has held in eastern Aleppo for more than four years.
If the ceasefire does happen on Tuesday, US-backed rebels would be chief beneficiaries because long suffering people in the territories they hold would get substantial humanitarian relief. They could also receive new fighters and weapons supplies from Saudi Arabia.
A previous 48-hour ceasefire to provide relief for civilians failed to stop Syrian and Russian warplanes from bombing some areas held by the rebels to keep them off balance.
The focus around Aleppo will now be on the strategic Castello Road and Ramouseh Gap.
The Castello Road is the main artery for traffic in Syria’s northern province and is currently blocked by fighting among the Assad regime, the US-backed rebels and US-backed Kurds known as People’s Defense Units, or YPG. The US-backed rebels and YPG do not see eye to eye.
The Ramouseh Gap is a sliver of territory in Aleppo that has changed hands three times in recent days and is currently in Assad’s control. Here, the Nusra Front is helping US-backed factions, adding murk to the heart of today’s agreement.
Since the US cannot separate Nusra fighters from American proxies in the area before Tuesday, the ceasefire might not happen.