As you look at the political landscape, you now see a big question mark: so what will happen NEXT?
At a seemingly-breakneck pace, Campaign 2008 is shaping up as a campaign of surprises that quickly make the conventional wisdom outdated.
Who would have ever thought that New York Senator Hillary Clinton’s once seamless and seemingly unstoppable campaign would suddenly need a professional seamstress (or two)?
Who would have ever thought that Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee would be the guy who came from behind in the GOP as former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s polls slowly decline and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (who should be a Republican dream candidate) is hamstrung by anti-Mormon sentiment within the GOP?
And brace yourself because some new developments suggest some more surprises could be down the pike. To wit:
#1 Senator John Edwards was a huge hit in CNN and Fox focus groups in yesterday’s debate according to Talking Points Memo Election Central.
Up until now, Edwards’ 2008 role seemed to be shaping up as the “also ran” — a perpetual second tier candidate who looks great on paper, is photogenic but failed to live up to expectations in 2004 (particularly in his debate with GOPer Dick Cheney). Perhaps he is now scoring because he has had years to fine-tune his pitch. Or, perhaps he is coming across as simply more passionate than the two perceived Democratic front-runners New York Senator Hillary Clinton and Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Or perhaps it’s because, as the L.A. Time’s blog notes, Edwards is making it clear where he stands and not hedging on his key campaign theme:
John Edwards no doubt benefited in today’s debate from being next to last among the six Democratic presidential candidates present in answering what, if elected, he would aim to accomplish in year one. Still, when he got his chance, the son of a mill worker used it to drive home the unvarnished populism that has defined his second White House run.
…..Of late, he’s been delivering that class manifesto with less anger than previously. But win or lose, Edwards cannot be accused of mincing his words. And somewhere, the ghost of William Jennings Bryan must be smiling.
MSNBC, focusing on Edwards’ unswerving adherence to his theme, counted the number of times he mentioned the word “corporate” (as in, “corporate power” or “corporate greed”). The result: 13
But could he prove a bigger player in the vote than many now think? And, if so, does he have a chance of winning some big ones? If not, who would he hurt more when voters vote for him rather than Clinton or Obama?
What seems clear is that while Clinton and Obama work to knock each other out and not lose existing support, Edwards is constantly hammering home his campaign theme. Is it too late to make a difference? In the end Edwards may not get the nomination — but one Republican strategist says Edwards is the candidate that he would fear the most.
#2 There’s yet ANOTHER REPORT that says New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is seriously considering jumping into the Presidential race. The Wall Street Journal reports that Bloomberg’s buds say he’s still considering running despite all the denials — and that developments make it more likely that he will run.
At this point, journalists should have two “evergreen” stories to save and run: Bloomberg is running and Bloomberg isn’t running. And if he does want to run, is he falling into the same trap of former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and actor and former Senator Fred Thompson, whose Hamlet imitations went on so long they missed the call of political history — and lost their big moment?
Some pooh-pooh the idea of a Bloomberg run as having little impact…but if he runs he will get lots of initial media attention (sucking up the media air that other candidates need) and will have to take votes away from someone.
Meanwhile, there is the ultimate wild card: external events. Something unforeseen by commentators, politicos and policy makers could happen that changes the political dynamics or the issues confronting the country.
Stay tuned. This could be a year when you not only need to buckle your seat belt, but you need to make sure you have an air bag ready…
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.