The Daunting Demographics of NATO’s Afghan Challenge
April 30th, 2008 by WILLIAM KERN
What’s poses the greatest danger to NATO’s effort in Afghanistan? According to Dutch Scholar Gunnar Heinsohn, the answer is clear: Afghanistan’s birth rate.
Heinsohn writes for the NRC Handelsblad of The Netherlands:
“In 2008, there are 4.5 million male Afghans within the traditional warrior age of 15 to 29 years. Out of that group come the insurgents that the approximately 35,000 NATO soldiers are now dug in to confront … and behind the current 4.5 million Afghans, there are 7.5 million Afghan boys under the age of 15.”
In discussing the likelihood that these young men will fond something to do beside battle NATO, Heinsohn writes, “Every year, over 500,000 Afghan youngsters reach ‘fighting age.’ At most, only 150,000 of them will manage to find lawful employment opportunities, i.e., in opium-free farming or with the army and police unites in Kabul.”
By Gunnar Heinsohn*
Translated By Meta Mertens
April 23, 2008
The Netherlands - NRC Handelsblad - Original Article (Dutch)
Afghanistan has many young men without any prospects. That gives the Taliban a major tactical advantage over their adversaries, says Gunnar Heinsohn.
Most Dutch politicians who decide on war and peace are between 45 and 65 years of age. Within this age bracket, Dutch men are in the majority compared to their Afghan counterparts. For every 100 Afghan men there 130 Dutch - in absolute numbers 1.4 million versus 1.8 million. But in the 0-14 year age group, the soldiers of tomorrow will be drawn from - the ratio is five to one: 7.5 Million Afghan boys to 1.5 million Dutch. The Afghan population is roughly twice the size as the Dutch, but Afghanistan has five times as many potential soldiers.
In 2008, there are 4.5 million male Afghans within the traditional warrior age of 15 to 29 years. Out of that group come the insurgents that the approximately 35,000 NATO soldiers - among which are 1,800 Dutch - are now dug waiting for a chance to defeat. But the chances for this happening seem unlikely to improve. Because behind the current 4.5 million Afghans, there are 7.5 million Afghan boys under the age of 15.
From a military perspective, this numerical superiority is even greater than it sounds. In The Netherlands and other NATO countries, where families have one or two children, there is no such thing as an expendable man. It is statistically far more likely that a boy from the West is an only son or child. But in Afghanistan, five million of the 7.5 million in the youngest age group are the second, third, and forth boys in a family.
Between 1916 and 1940, the Afghan population grew just a little from 6.4 million to 7.5 million inhabitants. Between 1950 and 2008, a population explosion occurred and the number of residents rose from 8 million to 33 million. It would even have been 40 million if a thirty-year war hadn’t taken such a huge toll in terms of victims and refugees. After 1980, the average number of children per woman has hovered around 7, versus 1.6 in The Netherlands.
READ ON AT WORLDMEETS.US, along with continuing translated foreign press coverage of the Afghan conflict.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 30th, 2008 at 3:48 pm and is filed under Family, The Netherlands, Al Qaeda, Ideology, Babies, Military Affairs, Taliban, Culture Wars, Islamism, Newspapers, Germany, France, Afghanistan, Military, Foreign Affairs, Europe, Iraq, War On Terror, Pakistan, Terrorism, Islam, History. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
