If New York Senator Hillary Clinton is thinking of running for President in 2008 as many think, there is a reality she must face: it won’t be a cakewalk.
She now faces the prospect of a new poll not only showing that her constituents don’t want her to run, but that they favor former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. And, meanwhile, a top controversial GOP operative has her in his target, sparking angry comments from her husband former President Bill Clinton.
The poll is a warning flag. According to the AP:
A Marist College poll released today shows that 51 percent of voters in New York state don’t want the Democratic senator to run for president in two years, while 44 percent say she should run.
Meanwhile, 51 percent of New York voters say former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani should run for president in 2008.
When it comes to Senate Clinton’s bid for re-election next year, 51 percent of those surveyed say they definitely plan to vote for her while 31 percent say they would vote against the incumbent.
So she has mended her fences at home…but not enough so they’ll just go along with whatever she wants. And:
In head-to-head Senate race matchups, Clinton leads a host of potential rivals by almost 2-to-1 margins or better, including Governor Pataki. But in a potential Senate race with Giuliani, the former mayor is favored by 49 percent of voters compared to 47 percent for Clinton.
That could be seen as a warning sign. On the other hand, Giuliani is still a kind of conceptual candidate: he hasn’t declared that he wants to run and once he does he has to start taking specific positions that could lose him support. So you could look at this poll arguing (1) it’s a warning to Mrs. Clinton, (2)since she is a known quantity for Senate and Rudy isn’t, that narrow margin shows she’s in decent shape. New Yorkers now KNOW where she stands on everything; Guiliani would still have to outline a series of positions.
Yet another question arises: suppose Mrs. Clinton does want to run for Prez. And suppose Giuliani wants to run? Could we see a Clinton/Giuliani national race? UNLIKELY. Mrs. Clinton is more likely to get her party’s nomination than Giuliani (a moderate Republican) is likely to get his.
Meanwhile, President Bill Clinton dumped on a key gay Republican operative who has his wife in his target as part of an early Stop Hillary movement:
Clinton fired back yesterday, suggesting that political consultant Arthur Finkelstein, who has launched a “Stop Her Now” campaign, is suffering from “self-loathing.”
Finkelstein married his male partner in a civil ceremony in Massachusetts in December, with a few of his conservative clients at the nuptial.
“… He went to Massachusetts and married his longtime male partner and then he comes back here and announces this,” Clinton said at a Harlem news conference.
“I thought, one of two things. Either this guy believes his party is not serious, and is totally Machiavellian in his position, or there’s some sort of self-loathing there. I was more sad for him.”
Quite a few conservative or anti-Hillary writers and bloggers are jumping down Clinton’s throat for this, claiming he is gay-bashing. But the bottom line is that Finkelstein’s marriage in New York…at a time when many in his party are clamoring for a gay marriage amendment… WAS a story laced with irony before he decided to go after Hillary.
Two factors are at work here: the near-obsesssive continuing detestation by many of Mr. Clinton, which seems to go to very fibers of their being. (Clinton is also a good excuse: a complaint on nearly any issue about this administration and its hardcore supporters respond “but under CLINTON..”) And also, apparently, the continued best-defense-is-a-good-offense fad sweeping American politics on both sides: attacking Clinton takes some attention away from the irony of Finkestein’s recent marriage in New York. The GOP did not exactly get a landslide of gay votes in the last election. The irony is not manufactured; it is evident.
But is it only the conservative writers and bloggers who want a gay marriage amendment who are now outraged over Clinton’s “gay bashing?” Are gay activists similarly upset over Clinton’s remarks?
On the lively and activist website Americablog one blogger believes the former President’s comments were quite accurate. But the blog’s founder activist John Aravosis has posted this open letter to Bill Clinton headlined:” Bill Clinton should look in the mirror before accusing others of sucking up to anti-gay bigots.”
Overall, it doesn’t sound like it was a very good day for Bill Clinton….and, by association, Mrs. Clinton…
Crooks and Liars has the video of the Clinton comments.
FOONOTE: TMV feels Hillary Clinton would be an ill-fated candidate since she’d polarize the country and would carry so much baggage that TSA would have to send a special team to inspect it. He is not promoting or trying to undermine her candidacy; he’s calling the shots as he sees it.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.