Many in the political class are pontificating on the virtues and pitfalls of a tactical, surgical missile strike on Syria to punish the Assad regime for violating international “norms”, whatever that’s supposed to mean or exclude from meaning*, by using chemical weapons. The problem with many of the pontificators is that they don’t know or haven’t recognized what Paul Harvey would have called “the rest of the story.” The rest of the story, to give you a head’s up on where this article is going, is that the United States is moving into ever deepening involvement in the Syrian Civil War well beyond anything having to do with cruise missile strikes and upping Raytheon’s quarterly profits.
Did you know that while we are focused on the shiny object of Cruise Missile strikes, the United States is escalating its commitment to the rebel forces, or at least some of them? Here’s what’s been happening and what we are committed to in terms of escalation.
Currently, the U. S. is providing minor armaments and training to some rebel forces through covert operations. That’s a CIA operation. It is limited in scope and budget. To date it has had little impact. In July, the Obama administration, at the urging of neocons like John McCain, committed to increasing the supply of arms to rebels.
What’s coming? This has been reported but gets lost behind all the Shock and Awe promise of a grand fireworks display. The United States is moving from covert arms and training to overt arms and training of anti-Assad rebels. The new arm and train strategy will be under Department of Defense where it will be far more robustly funded and is designed to include far more sophisticated ordnance.
Not only are we already committed to escalating our involvement with arming and training rebel forces to assist in regime change, that commitment will be codified into law if the resolution of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee to support the bombing plan passes Congress. Here’s what that Use of Force Resolution says at Section 5: Syria Strategy to take place after the Cruise Missile fireworks display.
[T]he provision of all forms of assistance to the Syrian Supreme Military Council and other Syrian entities opposed to the government of Bashar Al-Assad that have been properly and fully vetted and share common values and interests with the United States.
For those who can’t read between the lines, that’s a commitment to provide all the arms and training…and any other form of assistance…that the rebels we support need militarily. The administration must, under the resolution, provide a plan to accomplish this within 30 days of the Shock and Awe extravaganza. Look, my friends, that’s a commitment to regime change, plain and simple. We are taking sides in the Syrian Civil War and committing to the “provision of all forms of assistance” to the rebel military command.
Now those of us who keep up with the news, and that includes almost everyone at this site, know that there are many rebel factions and that there is no clear certainty that the one we support will gain ultimate power upon the fall of Bashar al Assad and his Alawite cohorts, at least not without American boots on the ground to insure it. There is also considerable concern that the first act of any successor regime, including our pals, could be the genocide of the Alawites out of spite and revenge. The Syrian situation is all very tribal, much like the morass of Iraq that we didn’t realize until too late.
Once we commit to regime change, we must insure that we have the regime change we desire, not just any regime change. Many of the rebels are radical jihadists, with the best of the best fighting forces reportedly aligned with al Qaeda. No geniuses are required to understand that we are now talking about nation building. At what cost in American blood and treasure we cannot predict. But, what is predictable is that the cost will far exceed anything we are currently contemplating.
Just think about it, please. Next time someone wants to talk about this surgical, limited, two day or so, Cruise Missile escapade, remember that there is a lot more going on and even more coming down that road that you haven’t yet heard about and will one day have to pay for, certainly with cash and perhaps with American blood.
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*Use of the term “norms”, as I understand it, is because the chemical weapons strike may not have technically met the definition of violating international law.
Contributor, aka tidbits. Retired attorney in complex litigation, death penalty defense and constitutional law. Former Nat’l Board Chair: Alzheimer’s Association. Served on multiple political campaigns, including two for U.S. Senator Mark O. Hatfield (R-OR). Contributing author to three legal books and multiple legal publications.