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Vote Inflation

July 21st, 2008
By JAZZ SHAW, Assistant Editor

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While the media continues to swarm over the Obama trip to “points beyond,” John McCain is hitting some key swing states to talk about more pressing domestic issues, including energy policy. As the New York Times points out, these are key battlegrounds and it’s a message which may resonate with the hurting pocketbooks of voters more than the opinions of foreign leaders.

“McCain’s message adding domestic oil production to a policy of alternative energy investment and conservation is favored over Obama’s message that blames oil companies, calls for investments in alternative energy, and rejects limited offshore drilling,” concluded a recent Democracy Corps analysis of Mr. Greenberg’s research.

That provides an opening for Mr. McCain on the economy in his most important electoral targets. Mr. McCain has placed top priority on holding Ohio and reversing Democrats’ 2004 victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, whose combined 42 electoral votes exceed those of Mr. Obama’s critical red-state targets of Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia.

“It’s not whether he wins or loses the issue nationally, it’s whether he wins it in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania,” Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster, said of the economy. That’s the turf Mr. McCain aims to occupy while Mr. Obama travels.

I have maintained for some time that energy policy and pain at the pump will be one of the driving issues in November, and McCain’s plan for energy is the more sensible of the two. Will this translate into votes? I obsess over polls far more than is healthy, but I’ve long since come to the conclusion that the COPM states will carry the day for this election. (Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.) Obama can actually afford to sacrifice Florida, (and he may well have to) but if he can carry those four states, McCain has no realistic path to 270. If Obama carries three of them, McCain’s path is steep and still likely impossible. But if McCain can nab two of them, Obama has work to do elsewhere.

These areas are exactly where McCain is hitting the energy and economic message while Obama tours abroad. Will it provide the needed impact? A look at the most recent poll of polls shows that Obama enjoys a small lead in all four, but Big Mac remains in striking distance. Obama is up by 7.7 in Michigan, 3.6 in Colorado, 4.5 in Ohio and 7.7 in Pennsylvania. Two are inside the margin of error and two are outside, but not by much. This period of time, while Obama talks abroad about Iraq and Afghanistan and McCain talks energy and the economy in these states, should prove instructive. If Obama gets a big bounce in the local polls from this, McCain has a dark cloud on his horizon. But if the local talks on these subjects begin closing the gap with Obama, the Illinois Senator might not want to start picking out drapes for the Oval Office just yet.



This entry was posted on Monday, July 21st, 2008 at 3:24 pm and is filed under Oil, Gas Prices, Newsweek Blogitics, John McCain, Barack Obama, 2008 Elections, Economy, Energy, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Viewing 35 Comments

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    I don't see how McCain's (Exxon's) energy policy is better than Obama's. But I do know that Florida voters do not want drilling rigs threatening their critical tourism sector, and this could turn into a big problem for McCain. I haven't seen yet, but I expect to see Photoshop depictions of oil rigs off the Florida coast. This won't play well in coastal states, and the benefits are speculative at best.

    Since the oil companies have failed to develop the oil and gas leases they already hold, and because many of those are easier than offshore drilling, and because oil companies lost dozens of oil platforms in the last few hurricanes, and because those losses polluted the Gulf coastline causing ugly, toxic and expensive problems, pushing for offshore drilling is actually a pretty stupid policy proposal that could well cost McCain Florida.
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    GreenDreams, I always enjoy your comments here, but do you happen to have a link handy on the oil rig thing? One of the talking points I've heard consistently (and I'll admit I've not done the leg work to track it down) was that while production was shut down, there were no noticable leakages, spills, etc, during the hurricanes.
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    Colorado is Amazingly liberal. No chance for McCain here.

    Pa. Mi. and Ohio he has a chance because Obama does not faire well with the working class because once again he is going after welfare and not jobs.

    Obama wants to give us more mandated programs but this does not help people at their job, at the grocery store and at the pump.

    If McCain drives this home then he has a chance in these 3 states.

    Colorado however has been sliding slowly towards being neo liberal for years now. Write Colorado off and dont spend a dime here.
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    Jazz, the lefties here never bother to place a cite (even from Daily Kos) to go along with their wishful thinking. It has dragged this website down from analytical debate to political advertisement..........."But I do know that Florida voters do not want drilling rigs threatening their critical tourism sector, and this could turn into a big problem for McCain."

    Seems Green needs to actually go out and meet some people from Florida........

    "Rasmussen Reports conducted a special Florida survey to measure the immediate impact of the offshore drilling issue on the Presidential race. As one part of the survey, respondents were told that McCain favored offshore drilling and said it would bring down the price of gas and oil. They were also told that Barack Obama opposed offshore drilling and said it would not bring down the price of gas and oil. After hearing the views of both McCain and Obama, most Florida voters agreed with McCain–61% said it was likely that offshore drilling would reduce gas prices. Only 34% disagreed and said that offshore drilling would not accomplish that goal."
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    Jazz, here is a link mostly describing the physical damage to the infrastructure:

    http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2006/press0501.htm

    And this one summarizes the number and extent of the spills:

    http://www.mms.gov/SettingtheRecordStraight/Est...
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    Since McCain is not going to win, it does not matter where he is, what he says, or what half-assed policy proposals his staff has put together.

    It is much more important to discuss how the U.S. economy will function under the proposals that Senator Obama is making. I do not think you have to worry about the tourism industry is gasoline is $8 dollars a gallon and you can only drive 60 miles in an electric car and it makes 1.5 days to take the train to Florida

    When you look at the energy proposals of Al Gore and the other environmental extremist, they will basically close down most of the tourism business in the U.S. Only those few areas that depend upon rich foreign tourist who do not drive will be able to survive. A state like Hawaii will be in a permanet depression and most of the population will have to leave.
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    The oil rigs shut down. They use zero dispersion oil production which means leakage from the well is minimal. However if a platform breaks free of its moorings and is set adrift then their is potential for subsequent leakage which is of course an area of concern but if their is enough notice given then the lines can actually be purged and no leakage will occur.
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    Actually if McCain could put together some really strong econonic proposals and hammer them home then he has a chance against the spend and spend Barak Obama.

    McCain is trying to fight Obama on Iraq and thats a losing strategy. Obama can do anything and the foreign nations would sing his praises. He needs to target the economy and force this election to be about setting this stuff straight.

    Balanced budget. Fiscal restraint. Pay down the debt. Get it done. Help people with their jobs and their economic wellbeing. Obama has no solutions and simply wants to spend, spend, spend.

    He won't though cause he is clueless so Obama really has nothing to worry about. If I was running McCains campaign Id have the senator up by 5 points not down.

    Jobs, economic health, Prosperity, lowering fuel prices and Balancing the budget. Fiscal responsibility along with restraint are winners. Iraq is not.
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    SD,
    And McCain wants to invade the ENTIRE WORLD!

    How hard is it to come up with a criticism of Obama that doesn't require painful hyperbole?
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